[Peace-discuss] Fwd: Poles apart

Morton K.Brussel brussel at staff.uiuc.edu
Mon Mar 17 11:13:44 CST 2003


A dispassionate summary geopolitical analysis of Bush administration 
aims and the Iraq crisis.

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Le Monde diplomatique <english at monde-diplomatique.fr>
> Date: Mon Mar 17, 2003  08:06:12 US/Central
> To: Le Monde diplomatique <english at monde-diplomatique.fr>
> Subject: Poles apart
>
>
>    Le Monde diplomatique
>
>    -----------------------------------------------------
>
>    March 2003
>
>                      GLOBAL CRISIS OVER IRAQ
>
>                            Poles apart
>
>                         By IGNACIO RAMONET
>
>                 "History is again on the move" - Arnold Toynbee
>
>      FUNDAMENTAL global issues are clearly at stake in Iraq.
>      Alarm bells ring as international relations disintegrate.
>      The United Nations is sidelined, the European Union
>      divided and Nato fractured. In February 10 million people
>      took to the streets around the world: anti-war
>      protesters, convinced that tragic events had been set in
>      motion, renounced the return of brutality to the
>      political stage and the rise in violence, passion and
>      hatred.
>
>      Collective fears produce anxious questions. Why should we
>      wage war on Iraq? Why now? What are the real intentions
>      of the United States? Why are France and Germany so
>      adamant in their opposition? Does this conflict point to
>      a new geopolitical arrangement? Will it change worldwide
>      balances of power?
>
>      Many observers believe that the real reasons for this war
>      are secret. People of good will who have paid close
>      attention to US arguments remain sceptical. Having failed
>      to make its case for war, Washington has forcefully
>      presented feeble justifications while causing doubt
>      around the world.
>
>      What is the official rationale? In September President
>      George Bush addressed the Security Council, outlining
>      seven charges against Iraq in a document, A Decade of
>      Defiance and Deception. This made three main accusations:
>      Iraq has flouted 16 UN resolutions; it possesses or is
>      seeking ballistic missiles and weapons of mass
>      destruction (WMD), nuclear, biological and chemical; it
>      is guilty of human rights violations, including torture,
>      rape and summary executions.
>
>      There are four more charges. The US blames Baghdad for
>      abetting terrorism by harbouring Palestinian
>      organisations and sending $25,000 to families of those
>      who carry out suicide attacks on Israel (1). It accuses
>      Iraq of holding prisoners of war, including a US pilot;
>      of confiscating property, including artworks and military
>      material, during its invasion of Kuwait; and of diverting
>      revenues from the UN oil-for-food programme.
>
>      These accusations led to a unanimous Security Council
>      vote in November. Resolution 1441 mandated "an enhanced
>      inspection regime with the aim of bringing to full and
>      verified completion the disarmament process". Considering
>      these disturbing charges, should all countries see Iraq
>      as the world's number one enemy? Is it the biggest threat
>      to humanity? Do US accusations justify all-out war?
>
>      The US and some allies - the United Kingdom, Australia
>      and Spain - say yes. Without the approval of any
>      recognised international body, the US and UK have
>      dispatched some 250,000 troops to the Gulf. This a
>      formidable fighting force with massive powers of
>      destruction. But, backed by substantial international
>      public opinion, Western countries such as France, Germany
>      and Belgium say no. Although they acknowledge the
>      seriousness of the charges, they contend that accusations
>      of flouting UN resolutions, violating human rights and
>      possessing WMD could be levelled against other countries,
>      especially Pakistan and Israel. But since both are close
>      US allies, no one will declare war on them. There is no
>      shortage of dictatorships (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia,
>      Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Equatorial Guinea)
>      that trample on human rights (2). Because they are
>      allies, Washington is silent.
>
>      In the eyes of France, Germany and Belgium, the Iraqi
>      regime does not immediately threaten its neighbours
>      because of 12 years of non-stop surveillance,
>      restrictions on its airspace and that devastating
>      embargo. About the endless search for impossible-to-find
>      weapons, many agree with Confucius:"You can't catch a cat
>      in a dark room, especially when there is no cat." They
>      believe that the inspectors from the UN Monitoring,
>      Verification and Inspection Commission, led by Swedish
>      diplomat Hans Blix, and the UN International Atomic
>      Energy Agency (IAEA), headed by Egyptian disarmament
>      expert Mohammed al-Baradei, are making steady progress,
>      as their reports to the Security Council, in particular
>      at the 7 March meeting, indicate. The goal of disarming
>      Iraq could be achieved without war.
>
>      The French president, Jacques Chirac, through his foreign
>      minister, Dominique de Villepin, has used this sensible
>      reasoning at the UN. In the minds of those opposed to
>      war, Chirac person ifies resistance to overwhelming US
>      firepower. Although we may be overstating the case,
>      Chirac has now achieved a level of international
>      popularity enjoyed by few French leaders before him. Like
>      "General Della Rovere" in Roberto Rossellini's celebrated
>      film, fate may have thrust him into the role of
>      resistance fighter, but Chirac has taken up the challenge
>      (3). The US has failed to make its case for war. It is
>      vulnerable to France's potential veto and has already
>      suffered two setbacks in the Security Council. The first
>      was on 4 February, when US Secretary of State Colin
>      Powell's presentation of evidence against Baghdad
>      flopped; and the second was on 14 February, when Hans
>      Blix delivered a fairly positive report, in which he
>      implied that some of Powell's evidence was barely cred
>      ible. The same day the French foreign minister made a
>      similar statement: "Ten days ago the US Secretary of
>      State reported the alleged links between al-Qaida and the
>      regime in Baghdad. Given the present state of our
>      research and intelligence, in liaison with our allies,
>      nothing allows us to establish such links." Establishing
>      links between Osama bin Laden's network and Saddam
>      Hussein's regime is a crucial factor that could justify
>      war, particularly to the US public, still in shock after
>      11 September 2001.
>
>            Europe and America: poles apart

>      Because there appears to be no demonstrable case for war,
>      many are rallying in opposition. So we must question the
>      real motives of the US, which are threefold. The first
>      stems from a US preoccupation, which became a total
>      obsession after 11 September, with preventing links between rogue
>      states and international terrorists. In 1997 President
>      Bill Clinton's defence secretary, William Cohen, voiced
>      US fears: "The US faces a heightened prospect that
>      regional aggressors, third-rate armies, terrorist cells
>      and even religious cults will wield disproportionate
>      power by using, or even threatening to use, nuclear,
>      biological or chemical weapons" (4). In a statement in
>      January 1999 Bin Laden indicated that the threat was
>      real: "I do not consider it a crime to try to obtain
>      nuclear, chemical and biological weapons" (5). Last
>      September President Bush acknowledged that such dangers
>      haunted him: "Our greatest fear is that terrorists will
>      find a shortcut to their mad ambitions when an outlaw
>      regime supplies them with the technologies to kill on a
>      massive scale." (6)
>
>      For Bush this outlaw regime is Iraq. Hence the
>      unprecedented US national security directive of
>      preventive war, issued last September. Former CIA
>      director James Woolsey summed up the Bush doctrine,
>      saying that it was born of the asymmetric battle against
>      terror, and about advanced dissuasion or preventive war.
>      Since terrorists always had the advantage of attacking in
>      secret, he said, the only defence was to find them
>      wherever they were, before they got into a position to
>      mount an attack (7). The US will hardly be seeking UN
>      authorisation for this new mode of warfare. The second,
>      albeit unspoken, motive, is to control the Gulf and its
>      oil resources. More than two thirds of the world's known
>      reserves are in Gulf states: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi
>      Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. For the
>      developed countries, particularly the US with its vast
>      appetite for oil, the Gulf is critical to assure economic
>      growth and maintain a way of life. The US would
>      immediately interpret any attack on the Gulf states as a
>      threat to its vital interests. In 1980 President Jimmy
>      Carter (later winner of the 2002 Nobel peace prize),
>      outlined in his State of the Union address the US policy
>      in the Gulf: "Any attempt by any outside force to gain
>      control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an
>      assault on the vital interests of the US, and such an
>      assault will be repelled by any means necessary,
>      including military force" (8).
>
>      Placed under British control after the first world war
>      and the dismantling of the Ottoman empire, the Gulf came
>      under growing US influence after the second world war.
>      But two countries resisted US domination: Iran after its
>      Islamic revolution in 1979, and Iraq after its invasion
>      of Kuwait in 1990. Since 11 September 2001, there have
>      been suspicions about Saudi Arabia and its links with
>      militant Islamists and alleged financial support for
>      al-Qaida. The US takes the position that it cannot afford
>      to lose a third pawn on the Gulf chessboard, especially
>      one as important as Saudi Arabia. Hence the temptation to
>      use false pretences to occupy Iraq and regain control of
>      the region.
>
>      Aside from military difficulties, it will not be easy for
>      US occupation forces to run Iraq in the post-Saddam era.
>      When he was still lucid, Colin Powell described the
>      intricacies of such an undertaking (9). He said in his
>      autobiography that although the US had condemned Saddam
>      for invading Kuwait, the US had no desire to destroy
>      Iraq. According to Powell, the US's major rival in the
>      Gulf in the 1980s was Iran, not Iraq; in those years the
>      US needed Iraq to counterbalance Iran. Powell also
>      insisted that Saudi Arabia opposed a Shi'ite rise to
>      power in southern Iraq; Turkey did not want the Kurds in
>      northern Iraq to secede; and the Arab states did not want
>      Iraq to be invaded and then divided into Sunni, Shi'ite
>      and Kurdish factions; that would have dashed US hopes for
>      stability in the Middle East. Powell concluded that to
>      prevent such scenarios, the US would have had to conquer
>      and occupy a faraway nation of 20 million people, which
>      would have run counter to the wishes of the American
>      people. Yet that is what Bush wants today.
>
>      The third, also unspoken, US motive is world supremacy.
>      For years Bush's rightwing advisers - including the
>      vice-president, Dick Cheney, the defence secretary,
>      Donald Rumsfeld, the deputy defence secretary, Paul
>      Wolfowitz, and Richard Perle, the chairman of the
>      Pentagon's Defence Policy Board - have hypothesised that
>      the US would become a global imperial power (see United
>      States: inventing demons, page 6). These men held similar
>      positions from 1989 to 1993 in the administration of
>      President George Bush Senior. The cold war was ending:
>      although most strategists favoured a reduced role for US
>      armed forces, they gave preference to restructuring the
>      military, relying on new technologies to re-establish war
>      as a foreign policy tool.
>
>      One observer explained: "The Vietnam syndrome was still
>      alive. The military didn't want to use force unless
>      everyone was in agreement. The stated conditions required
>      virtually a national referendum before force could be
>      used. No declaration of war would have been possible
>      without a catalysing event such as Pearl Harbor" (10). In
>      December 1989 White House hawks, with General Colin
>      Powell's agreement and without congressional or UN
>      approval, instigated the invasion of Panama, ousting
>      General Manuel Noriega and causing 1,000 deaths. The same
>      men prosecuted the Gulf war, in which US military might
>      left the world thunderstruck.
>
>      After returning to the White House in January 2001,
>      Bush's hawks recognised that 11 September was their
>      long-awaited "catalysing event". Now nothing restrains
>      them. They used the USA Patriot Act to give the
>      government alarming powers against civil liberties; they
>      promised to exterminate terrorists; they put forward
>      their theory of global war against international
>      terrorism; they conquered Afghanistan and overthrew the
>      Taliban; they sent troops to Colombia, Georgia and the
>      Philippines. They then developed the preventive war
>      doctrine and used their propaganda to justify war on
>      Iraq.
>
>      The hawks ostensibly agreed that the US should focus its
>      efforts on globalisation's power centres: the G7, the
>      International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organisation
>      and the World Bank. But they have sought incrementally to
>      end US involvement in multilateral organisations. That is
>      why they urged Bush to condemn the Kyoto protocol on
>      global warming; the anti-ballistic missile treaty; the
>      International Criminal Court; the treaty on
>      anti-personnel mines; the biological weapons protocol;
>      the convention on small arms; the treaty banning nuclear
>      weapons; and the Geneva conventions on prisoners of war
>      relevant to the Guantanamo detainees. Their next step
>      could be to reject the authority of the Secur ity
>      Council, jeopardising the UN's existence. Under the guise
>      of lofty ideals - freedom, democracy, free trade - these
>      rightwing ideologues seek to transform the US into a new
>      military state. They have embraced the ambitions of all
>      empires: reshaping the globe, redrawing frontiers and
>      policing the world's peoples.
>
>      These were the intentions of previous colonialists. They
>      believed, as historians Douglas Porch and John Keegan
>      have argued, that the spread of trade, Christianity,
>      science and efficient Western-style administration would
>      push forward the frontiers of civilisation and reduce
>      zones of conflict. Thanks to imperialism, poverty would
>      turn into prosperity, savages find salvation,
>      superstition become enlightenment, and order arrive in
>      places of confusion and barbarism (11).
>
>      Thanks to their distinctive conception of the EU, France
>      and Germany seek to forestall growing US hegemony, and
>      choose to act as a non- belligerent counterweight to the
>      US within the UN (12). As Dominique de Villepin said: "We
>      believe that a multipolar world is needed, that no one
>      power can ensure order throughout the world" (13). The
>      shape of a bipolar world is becoming evident. The second
>      pole could either be the EU (if its member states can
>      overcome their differences), a new Paris-Berlin-Moscow
>      alliance or other formations (Brazil, South Africa,
>      India, Mexico). France and Germany have taken a bold and
>      historic step that could enable Europe to overcome its
>      fears of the past 60 years and reaffirm its political
>      will. They have exposed the pusillanimity of European
>      countries (including the UK, Spain, Italy and Poland)
>      that have been vassal states for far too long.
>
>      The US had been making itself comfortable in a unipolar
>      world dominated by its military forces; the war on Iraq
>      was meant to display new US imperial power. But France
>      and Germany have joined together to remind the US that
>      political, ideological, economic and military
>      considerations are crucial to the exercise of power.
>      Globalisation led some to believe that economics and
>      neoliberal ideology were the only essential factors;
>      political and military considerations were relegated to
>      the back burner. That was a mistake. As the world is
>      being formed anew, the US focuses on the military and the
>      media. France and Germany have opted for a political
>      strategy. In their attempt to address global problems,
>      France and Germany bet on perpetual peace. Bush and his
>      entourage of hawks seek perpetual war.
>        ____________________________________________________
>
>      (1) Unlike Powell at the UN on 4 February, Bush's report
>      mentioned no links between Baghdad and al-Qaida.
>
>      (2) For more than 20 years Egypt, which receives about
>      $3bn in annual aid from the US, almost as much as Israel,
>      has banned street demonstrations, brutally repressed
>      political opposition (the country has more than 20,000
>      political prisoners) and persecuted homosexuals. After 22
>      years in power, General Hosni Mubarak has groomed his
>      son, Gamal, as his successor. Yet the French and American
>      media describe the Egyptian dictatorship as "moderate",
>      and Mubarak is viewed as a respectable leader.
>
>      (3) In General Della Rovere (1959) Roberto Rossellini
>      tells the story of a crook persuaded by the Nazis to pass
>      himself off as a resistance leader, " Della Rovere", to
>      identify those fighting in the resistance. But he
>      gradually comes to identify with his role, takes an
>      active part in the resistance and dies a hero.
>
>      (4) Barthélémy Courmont and Darko Ribnikar, Les Guerres
>      asymétriques, Presses Universitaires de France, Paris,
>      2002.
>
>      (5) Ibid.
>
>      (6) Speech to the UN General Assembly, 12 September 2002.
>
>      (7) El País, Madrid, 3 August 2002.
>
>      (8) Quoted by Bob Woodward in The Commanders, Simon &
>      Schuster, New York, 1991.
>
>      (9) Colin Powell, My American Journey: An Autobiography,
>      Random House, New York, 1995.
>
>
>
>                       Translated by Ed Emery and Luke Sandford
>
>
>        ____________________________________________________
>
>        ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 1997-2003 Le Monde diplomatique
>
>    <http://MondeDiplo.com/2003/03/01polesapart>
>
>
Morton K. Brussel
2003 George Huff Drive
Urbana, Illinois, 61801-6203
Tel. 217 337-0118

Preferred email: brussel at uiuc.edu
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