[Peace-discuss] Work to do

[C. G. Estabrook]

[Results of a recent Harris poll suggest how important it is for AWARE to
keep up its work. --CGE]
		
In Spite of Media Coverage, Widespread Belief in Weapons of Mass
Destruction and Iraqi Links to Al Qaeda Remain Virtually Unchanged

    ROCHESTER, N.Y., April 21 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Harris Poll finds that
public perceptions of the facts that led up to the invasion of Iraq remain
almost unchanged in spite of a barrage of media reports that might have
changed them.

    For example:
     -- A 51% to 38% majority continues to believe that "Iraq actually had
        weapons of mass destruction," virtually unchanged since February.

     -- A 49% to 36% plurality of all adults continues to believe that
        "clear evidence that Iraq was supporting Al Qaeda has been found."
        These numbers have scarcely changed since June 2003.

     -- A 51% to 43% plurality continues to believe that "intelligence
        given before the war to President Bush by the CIA and others about
        Iraqi's weapons of mass destruction" was "completely" or
        "somewhat" accurate. In February a 50% to 45% plurality believed
	this.

     -- While a 43% plurality believes that the "U.S. government
	deliberately exaggerated the reports of weapons of mass
	destruction in Iraq to increase support for war," a 50% plurality
	(also virtually unchanged over the last eight months) continues to
	believe that the government "tried to present the information
	accurately."

    These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 979 adults
surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive(R) between April 8 and 15,
2004.

    Sense of being "bogged down" increases
    Only one of the eight questions asked in this survey on Iraq found
any significant change over the last two months. Those who believe that it
is "very likely" that the U.S. will get "bogged down for a long time in
Iraq and not be able to create a stable government there" have increased
from 37% in February to 45% now. However this has had no significant
impact on the number of people who "favor keeping a large number of U.S.
troops there until there is a stable government" (42%) or those who favor
"bringing most of our troops home in the next year" (51%).

    A case of cognitive dissonance?
    The remarkable stability of these numbers suggest that people have
made up their minds on many of the key issues relating to weapons of mass
destruction and links to Al Qaeda, and that it would take something very
big to change them. It seems that people believe media reports which fit
with their opinions and reject those which do not. The balance on several
of the key questions is tilted roughly 50% to 40% in favor of the
administration.

    The potential impact of these issues in the November elections
    If President Bush continues to enjoy this modest but significant
advantage between now and November, it will be difficult for Senator Kerry
and the Democrats to use these issues against him in the election
campaign. If, on the other hand, a substantial majority of the public
comes to believe that there were no weapons of mass destruction, or links
to Al Qaeda, or that President Bush exaggerated the evidence to increase
support for the invasion, the result could be disastrous for him.

[Details at <http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/
www/story/04-21-2004/0002156598&EDATE=>.]