[Peace-discuss] US and Russian nuclear weapons- the threat remains

[patton paul]

Still on Catastrophe's Edge
by Robert McNamara and Helen Caldicott


As we continue to grapple with the United States' vulnerability to
terrorist attack, we fail to recognize the most serious danger, one that
is overlooked by politicians and emergency management agencies alike.
Thousands of Russian nuclear warheads are targeted on the U.S.

How can this be, after the end of the Cold War nearly 15 years ago?
Unfortunately, the targeting strategy of Russia and the United States has
changed little, despite a profound change in relations between these two
nations.

Most people believe that the threat of nuclear attack  whether by
accident, human fallibility or malfeasance  has disappeared. Yet a January
2002 document from the U.S. Foreign Military Studies Office, titled
"Prototypes for Targeting America, a Soviet Military Assessment," states
that New York City, for example, is the single most important target in
the Atlantic region after major military installations.

A U.S. Office of Technology Assessment report, commissioned in the 1980s,
is still relevant. It estimated that Soviet nuclear war plans had two
one-megaton bombs aimed at each of three airports that serve New York, one
aimed at each of the major bridges, two at Wall Street and two at each of
four oil refineries. The major rail centers and power stations were also
targeted, along with the port facilities.

It's also instructive that a recent Federal Emergency Management Agency
report on nuclear-attack preparedness contains a map that depicts New York
City obliterated by nuclear blasts and the resulting firestorms and
fallout. Millions of people would die instantly. Survivors would perish
shortly thereafter from burns and exposure to radiation.

And New York would not be the only devastated city. According to a report
on nuclear war planning by the National Resources Defense Council, Russia
aims most of its 8,200 nuclear warheads at the U.S., and the U.S.
maintains 7,000 offensive strategic warheads in its arsenal, most of which
are targeted on Russian missile silos and command centers. Each of these
warheads has roughly 20 times the destructive power of the bomb dropped on
Hiroshima.

Of the 7,000 U.S. nuclear warheads, 2,500 are maintained on hair-trigger
alert, ready for launching. In order to effectively retaliate, the
commander of the Strategic Air Command has only three minutes to decide if
a nuclear attack warning is valid. He has 10 minutes to find the president
for a 30-second briefing on attack options. And the president has three
minutes to decide whether to launch the warheads and at which targets,
according to the Center for Defense Information. Once launched, the
missiles would reach their Russian targets in 15 to 30 minutes.

A nearly identical situation prevails in Russia, except there the early
warning system is decaying rapidly. As always, the early warning systems
of both countries register alarms daily, triggered by wildfires, satellite
launchings and solar reflections off clouds or oceans. A more immediate
concern is the difficulty of guaranteeing protection of computerized early
warning systems and command centers against terrorists or hackers.

The two nuclear superpowers still own 96% of the global nuclear arsenal of
30,000 nuclear weapons. It is clear that their nuclear planning and
ongoing targeting are the major threats to national security.

The Senate and House armed services committees and foreign relations
committees must address these ongoing and unresolved threats to the people
of the U.S. and, indeed, the planet.

Russia and the U.S. are now self- described allies in their fight against
global terrorism. Their first duty in this effort should be immediate and
rapid bilateral nuclear disarmament, accompanied by the other six nuclear
nations (France, Britain, China, India, Pakistan and Israel), along with
U.N. Security Council action to ensure that no other nations  particularly
Iran and North Korea  acquire nuclear weapons.

According to Mohamed ElBaradei, director of the International Atomic
Energy Agency, a clear road map for nuclear disarmament should be
established. Time is not on our side.

Robert McNamara was secretary of Defense for presidents Kennedy and
Johnson. Helen Caldicott is a pediatrician and president of the Nuclear
Policy Research Institute.

Copyright 2004 Los Angeles Times