[Peace-discuss] More qs on election results

[Lisa Chason]

Many thanks Jim, Arun and Phil for pointing out problems with the stolen
elections web message. Still wondering, I forward the following.
Comments would be much appreciated.


---- Original message ----
>Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2004 14:16:44 -0600
>Subject: [SWS] FW: Fwd: Re: Election returns  
>To: SWS-L at listserv.uconn.edu
>
>i was wondering why the exit polls yesterday didn't match
the vote count.   a friend forwarded this to me.  does 
anyone out there have a critique of this message?
>
>
> Subject: Statistical Question
>
>  Dave,
>    It occurs to me that one of the questions that could be
answered
>  without too much trouble, at least for someone with lots
of access to
>  data and a knowlege of statistics, would be: is there any
difference in
>  the Bush - Kerry percentages in precincts that used
eVoting, especially
>  Diebold but all eVoting machines, as opposed to those
that used paper
>  ballots or some other method of voting.  If this
question has any
>  meaning for you, I'd ask you to pose to the list, to see
anyone with
>  the proper skills and access could carry out such a study.
>
>    I hope in the next few days statisticians examine the
issue of the
>  exit polls.  Since the early 70's the exit polls have
always been spot
>  on.  I feel ashamed for any journalist who says the exit
polls got it
>  wrong in FLA in 2000, because it is clear they got it
right.
>
>    I have to wonder how John Zogby, who predicted 312
electoral votes for
>  Kerry at 5PM EST 11/2, could have gotten the exit polls
so wrong.  Or
>  really if he did.
>
>    You might wish to know that CNN only changed its exit
polls in Ohio
>  from Kerry favorable to Bush favorable early on 11/3.
>
>    You can see a screenshot of the Kerry favorable at  
> http://tinyurl.com/42qbv .  It is time-stamped 12:21
AM.  An hour and
>  20 minutes later it's suddenly got Bush way ahead in the
exit polls.
>  http://tinyurl.com/568vo
>
>    I just found this posting in the Democratic Underground
site
>  ...on several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has
EVoting but no
>  paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of
around +5% when
>  comparing exit polls to actual results.
>
>    In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their
EVoting, the exit
>  poll results match the actual results reported within the
margin of
>  error.
>
>    So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting
with audits
>
>    vs.
>
>    A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits.
>