[Peace-discuss] Creating the causes of future wars

[ppatton at uiuc.edu]

 Global Warming: Scientists Reveal Timetable
by Michael McCarthy
 

A detailed timetable of the destruction and distress that
global warming is likely to cause the world was unveiled
yesterday.

It pulls together for the first time the projected impacts on
ecosystems and wildlife, food production, water resources and
economies across the earth, for given rises in global
temperature expected during the next hundred years.

The resultant picture gives the most wide-ranging impression
yet of the bewildering array of destructive effects that
climate change is expected to exert on different regions, from
the mountains of Europe and the rainforests of the Amazon to
the coral reefs of the tropics.


There will be a rapid increase in populations exposed to
hunger, with up to 5.5 billion people living in regions with
large losses in crop production, while another 3 billion
people will have increased risk of water shortages.
(AFP/François Anardin)
Produced through a synthesis of a wide range of recent
academic studies, it was presented as a paper yesterday to the
international conference on climate change being held at the
UK Met Office headquarters in Exeter by the author Bill Hare,
of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
Germany's leading global warming research institute.

The conference has been called personally by Tony Blair as
part of Britain's attempts to move the climate change issue up
the agenda during the current UK presidency of the G8 group of
rich nations, and the European Union. It has already heard
disturbing warnings from the latest climate research,
including the revelation on Tuesday from the British Antarctic
Survey that the massive West Antarctic ice sheet might be
disintegrating - an event which, if it happened completely,
would raise sea levels around the world by 16ft (4.9 meters).

Dr Hare's timetable shows the impacts of climate change
multiplying rapidly as average global temperature goes up,
towards 1C above levels before the industrial revolution, then
to 2C, and then 3C.

As present world temperatures are already 0.7C above the
pre-industrial level, the process is well under way. In the
near future - the next 25 years - as the temperature climbs to
the 1C mark, some specialized ecosystems will start to feel
stress, such as the tropical highland forests of Queensland,
which contain a large number of Australia's endemic plant
species, and the succulent karoo plant region of South Africa.
In some developing countries, food production will start to
decline, water shortage problems will worsen and there will be
net losses in GDP.

It is when the temperature moves up to 2C above the
pre-industrial level, expected in the middle of this century -
within the lifetime of many people alive today - that serious
effects start to come thick and fast, studies suggest.

Substantial losses of Arctic sea ice will threaten species
such as polar bears and walruses, while in tropical regions
"bleaching" of coral reefs will become more frequent - when
the animals that live in the coral are forced out by high
temperatures and the reef may die. Mediterranean regions will
be hit by more forest fires and insect pests, while in regions
of the US such as the Rockies, rivers may become too warm for
trout and salmon.

In South Africa, the Fynbos, the world's most remarkable
floral kingdom which has more than 8,000 endemic wild flowers,
will start to lose its species, as will alpine areas from
Europe to Australia; the broad-leaved forests of China will
start to die. The numbers at risk from hunger will increase
and another billion and a half people will face water
shortages, and GDP losses in some developing countries will
become significant.

But when the temperature moves up to the 3C level, expected in
the early part of the second half of the century, these
effects will become critical. There is likely to be
irreversible damage to the Amazon rainforest, leading to its
collapse, and the complete destruction of coral reefs is
likely to be widespread.

The alpine flora of Europe, Australia and New Zealand will
probably disappear completely, with increasing numbers of
extinctions of other plant species. There will be severe
losses of China's broadleaved forests, and in South Africa the
flora of the Succulent Karoo will be destroyed, and the flora
of the Fynbos will be hugely damaged.

There will be a rapid increase in populations exposed to
hunger, with up to 5.5 billion people living in regions with
large losses in crop production, while another 3 billion
people will have increased risk of water shortages.

Above the 3C raised level, which may be after 2070, the
effects will be catastrophic: the Arctic sea ice will
disappear, and species such as polar bears and walruses may
disappear with it, while the main prey species of Arctic
carnivores, such as wolves, Arctic foxes and the collared
lemming, will have gone from 80 per cent of their range,
critically endangering predators.

In human terms there is likely to be catastrophe too, with
water stress becoming even worse, and whole regions becoming
unsuitable for producing food, while there will be substantial
impacts on global GDP. 
__________________________________________________________________
Dr. Paul Patton
spring semster 2005
Visiting Assistant Professor
Department of Biology, Williams College
Williamstown, MA
phone: (413)-597-3518

Research Scientist
Beckman Institute  Rm 3027  405 N. Mathews St.
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign  Urbana, Illinois 61801
work phone: (217)-265-0795   fax: (217)-244-5180
home phone: (217)-344-5812
homepage: http://netfiles.uiuc.edu/ppatton/www/index.html

"The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious.  It is the
source of all true art and science."
-Albert Einstein
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