[Peace-discuss] Venezuela-Colombia Crisis: Where was Washington?
Phil Stinard
pstinard at hotmail.com
Wed Feb 16 22:04:53 CST 2005
The author of this article is perhaps a little too eager and premature in
trumpeting the failure of US foreign policy in Latin America (in the
negative sense of the term "US foreign policy"), but it's a good analysis of
the Granda Affair. The original article is at: www.coha.org
--Phil
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Gabriel Espinosa-Gonzalez on: Venezuela-Colombia Crisis: Where was
Washington?
Bush Administration Should be Embarrassed as Brazil, Peru and Cuba Help
Broker Compromise while U.S. Policymakers, led by Noriega, try to whip
Colombia into a Frenzy
Washingtons Latin America policy continues to be afflicted by a severe
case of short-sighted tunnel vision that makes it unlikely that the many
ruptures with hemispheric nations that developed in Bushs first term will
be mended during his second term.
U.S. policymakers failed attempts at isolating Venezuelan President Hugo
Chávez from the rest of Latin America as a result of a diplomatic crisis
between Venezuela and Colombiawhich was resolved on February 15sullies
Washingtons already tarnished image and constitutes a serious misappraisal
of the prevailing diplomatic atmosphere throughout the region.
The total dearth of effective and positive U.S. diplomacy during the
crisis allowed regional players Brazil, Peru and Cuba to showcase their
commitment toward greater unity and stability within Latin America.
Havanas role in helping to mediate the crisis further embarrasses a Bush
administration that rarely misses an opportunity to portray the Castro
regime as an obstructionist to regional peace, but the facts prove
differently.
The severity of the now mended crisis between Venezuela and Colombia can
be attributed to the fact that it concerned two issues of utmost importance
for each countrys respective president: Chávezs mobilization around the
issue of national sovereignty on the one hand, and the integrity of
President Alvaro Uribes war of attrition against guerrilla forces operating
in his country on the other.
Ultimately, diplomatic assistance provided by other Latin American
governments, in conjunction with bilateral economic pressures, encouraged
both sides to arrive at a resolution yesterday in which Caracas agreed to
resume bilateral trade and economic projects and both governments committed
themselves to cooperate on border security issues in such a way as to
guarantee that sovereignty is not affected.
The Bush administrations counterproductive and unfortunately predictable
response to the severe diplomatic crisis that erupted in January between
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his Colombian counterpart, Alvaro
Uribe, reaffirms that Latin Americas leadership cannot count upon
Washington to serve as a stabilizing, mature and positive force in the
region. The Bush administrations decision to unequivocally and
enthusiastically side with Bogotá, even before the details of the dispute
could fully be examined, and its call for other Latin America leaders to
join it in isolating Chávezmany of whom see Washington, not Caracas, as
their main regional nemesiswas transparently Machiavellian in its intent.
The administrations demarche also was grossly unsuccessful since it
subsequently went unheeded. Instead, Brazil, Peru and Cuba demonstrated
their ability to serve as productive mediators, helping resolve the crisis
and enhancing their image as peacemakers at the expense of Washingtons
reputation. As a result, Latin America was made all the more aware that its
neighbor to the north cannot be viewed as anything but a unilateralist
intent on maximizing every opportunity to advance its own self-interests
rather than the good of the region. The destructive manner in which
Washington played its hand once again showed how unprepared State Department
Assistant Secretary Roger Noriega is to contribute to a constructive and
non-ideological projection of U.S. policy in Latin America and provide
effective leadership to the Bureau of Inter-American affairs.
Granda Affair
The abduction in Caracas and later delivery to Colombia of Rodrigo Granda of
the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) on December 13, which
precipitated the diplomatic row between Venezuela and Colombia, led
officials from both neighboring countries to swap charges with the other
regarding violation of national sovereignty on the one hand, and neglect of
and even collusion with guerrilla activities on the other. Despite Colombian
Minister of Defense Jorge Alberto Uribes insistence that Granadas
apprehension was accomplished exclusively by our operatives and in
Colombian territory, it soon became clear that the facts did not conform to
that rendition of the story.
When it finally was established that Grandas capture in Caracas was a
result of collaboration between Colombian security officials and a number of
renegade Venezuelan national guardsmen and policemen serving as bounty
hunters without the instruction of their superiors, Chávez responded
forcefully. Speaking on his weekly radio address on January 9, he
characterized the apprehension as a clear violation of Venezuelan
sovereignty and later demanded an apology from President Uribe and a
thorough investigation of the matter. Bogotá, after reluctantly admitting on
January 12 that it indeed had paid for Grandas capture, responded in kind
by rehashing allegations of complicity between Caracas and the leftist FARC,
while justifying the abduction on the basis of its fight against
international terrorism. A vicious cycle of recriminating exchanges ensued,
reaching a boiling point on January 14 when, after already calling back his
ambassador to Bogotá, Chávez raised the stakes by suspending all commercial
ties with its neighbor to the west. The Venezuelan president claimed that
regardless of intent, it was completely unjustifiable for high-ranking
Colombian officials to attempt to instigate Venezuelan officials to commit
a crime
that they attempt to buy Venezuelan soldiers so that they sell out
their nation. At this point, there was good reason to fear that the two
neighbors had reached an impasse and things could only get worse.
A Wasted Opportunity
With the dispute between Venezuela and Colombia escalating to a level far
beyond that of a simple diplomatic spat, the Bush administration had a
unique opportunity to begin to make amends for its mostly unilateral,
arrogant and, at best, neglectful first-term Latin America policy. With
Chávez and Uriberespectively the Bush administrations nemesis and
staunchest ally in the regioninvolved in a serious confrontation that
appeared to require third-party mediation, Washington should have offered to
help broker an agreement between the two countries rather than pour vinegar
on an open wound. A conciliatory policy, as previously followed by U.S.
ambassador to Caracas William Brownfield, could have proved highly
beneficial for the Bush administrations stained reputation, as it would
have exhibited a newfound willingness on its part to serve as a constructive
force in the region at a time when a new generation of left-of-center
leaders in Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia and Uruguay had come to the fore.
Moreover they demonstrated themselves to be inherently wary of Washingtons
meddlesome tactics and more reluctant than their predecessors to cooperate
blindly on any issue that the hemispheric superpower identifies as being of
emerging importance.
Furthermore, such a move would have entailed very little political cost
because regardless of how the dispute was eventually resolved, Washington
would have been able to interpret its role in the matter as consonant with
its overall commitment to Colombias fight against terrorism. Had
U.S.-mediated talks proved fruitless, the strategy would nevertheless have
allowed the White House to appease some members of Congress, among them
Senate Foreign Relations Committee members Lincoln Chafee (R-RI),
Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and Bill Nelson (D-FL), who on one occasion or
another had voiced their concerns about Washingtons deteriorating relations
with Caracas, one of the U.S.s largest suppliers of foreign oil. Senator
Richard Lugar (R-IN), the committees chairman, also has expressed his broad
concern with current U.S. regional policy, indirectly criticizing the Bush
administration and expressing his hope that newly appointed Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice has people in the department [State Department
Bureau for Western Hemisphere Affairs] who are on top of the situation.
This can only be interpreted as a slap in the face of Assistant Noriega, a
political extremist whose policy initiatives more often than not reflect the
views of Miamis hard-right expatriate community, rather than more
diplomatically oriented moderates in either the U.S. or Latin America.
Attempts Fall Flat
Old habits are always difficult to shed, and all the more so when the
administration in power does not take kindly to constructive criticism or
often admit and move to redress past mistakes. Instead of steering a course
toward mutually beneficial and potentially a more successful diplomacy, the
Bush administrations policymakers reverted to their customary hard line,
viewing Caracas dispute with Bogotá as just one more opportunity to further
their goal of isolating Chávez within Latin America. One can argue, though,
that considering Venezuelas increased contact and collaboration with
regional governments, it is Washington that in fact has ended up being
isolated in Latin America. That the U.S. had a favorite in the dispute was
undeniable, but on January 15, U.S. Ambassador to Bogotá William Wood issued
a posturing statement expressing his governments 100 percent support for
Colombias position, even after it had been revealed that Uribes government
paid for Grandas capture in Venezuela. With this Washington became the
first and along with El Salvador the only hemispheric government to publicly
disavow a position of neutrality. In recent years El Salvadors conservative
government has proved itself a loyal sycophant of Washington, siding with
the minority of Latin American governments on two especially noteworthy
occasions: supporting the Bush administration during the Iraqi invasion and
earlier in its decision to recognize the short-lived government that
undemocratically unseated Chávez in 2002.
What transpired next was a concerted effort led by Noriega to attempt to
line-up the rest of the region on Washingtons side. This grave
miscalculation presupposed two things: that Washingtons voice commanded
utmost respect in Latin America and that the regions governments,
especially those aspiring to position themselves as influential actors, did
not have a big stake in wanting to see the dispute between Venezuela and
Colombia successfully mediated. Both theses turned out to be false, and thus
the diplomatic communiqué sent by Washington urging Brasilia, Buenos Aires,
Santiago, Mexico City and others to pressure Chávez to yield to Bogotás
demands was either ignored or repudiated on a de facto basis.
Noriega, in essence, implicitly admitted to his diplomatic miscalculation
when in a February 4 interview on the publicly-funded U.S. overseas radio
network, Voice of America, he lamented the fact that certain Latin American
governments had decided to adopt an attitude independent of Washington
(appropriately enough for the Bush administrations low expectations for its
diplomacy in the region, the day before this interview it was announced that
Noriega would remain at his post during Bushs second term). The Assistant
Secretary blithely referred to these governments unwillingness to be party
to Washingtons self-righteous confrontation with Chávez in a sanguine way,
categorizing it as a sort of fatigue among the countries in the hemisphere
that he hoped would soon pass. He promised to continue his Cold War-era
inspired campaign, adding that Washington might even seek to invoke the
Democracy charter of the Organization of American States, which calls for
collective sanctions against presidents who seek to become de facto
dictators, against Chávez. In broad terms, the Bush administrations Latin
America policy, as characterized by this particular case, is and will most
likely continue to be afflicted by a severe case of tunnel vision that will
work against better inter-American relations as well as the possibility of
arriving at some sort of consensus on other hemispheric issues identified as
critical to U.S. interests, such as drug trafficking, security and free
trade. Simply put, the Noriega era has been a disaster for sound U.S.-Latin
American ties, which at some point may go beyond repair.
Latin American Initiative
With Washingtons contribution to placating the VenezuelaColombia dispute
consisting almost solely of barbs directed at President Chávez, other Latin
American governments rose to the occasion. As Ambassador Wood and State
Department spokesman Richard Boucher spoke of the need to pressure Caracas
and Secretary Rice referred to Chávez as a negative force in her Senate
confirmation hearing, the governments of Peru and Mexico were the first to
emphasize the need for Venezuela and Colombia to maintain open channels of
communication. Peru, which currently holds the presidency of the Andean
Community of Nations (CAN), to which both countries belong, played a
particularly instrumental role in bringing Chávez and Uribe closer to a
settlement and to yesterdays face-to-face meeting, which originally was
scheduled for February 3. Once the dispute had virtually been resolved,
Uribe thanked Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo and his Foreign Minister,
Manual Rodríguez, for their efficient and intelligent mediating role.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva also offered his governments
assistance and took advantage of a previously scheduled meeting with Uribe
in the Colombian city of Leticia on January 9 to help relieve some of the
hostility between Colombia and Venezuela. Lula, whose ideological posture
originally was very similar to that of Chávez, nevertheless maintains close
ties with both countries presidents. Moreover, since assuming the Brazilian
presidency in 2003, he has led a campaign for his nation to become a greater
regional player, an aspiration that undoubtedly influenced his words and
actions in this case, and his decision to sell aircraft to Venezuela. The
deal has not yet been finalized but Caracas will likely purchase up to two
dozen Super Tucano training and light combat planes from Brasilia. And
although the agreement has raised fears of a future arms race between
Venezuela and Colombia, the fact that Chávez is purchasing the equipment
from a friend and a burgeoning partner of Washington makes it difficult for
the U.S. to loudly voice its concern over the sale. In fact, the deal in
effect erects a defensive barrier around Venezuela because Washington is
hardly looking for a fight with Brasilia, and even Noriega would not try to
bully Brazil as if it were a Caribbean mini-state.
Perhaps most surprising of all was Cubas role in mediating the crisis, as
first reported by the Colombian daily El Tiempo. According to the article,
President Uribe himself reached out to Fidel Castro for assistance as the
situation appeared to be spiraling out of control. Castro responded by
dispatching his foreign minister, Felipe Pérez Roque, to Caracas on January
19 to meet with Chávez. After being apprised of the situation and of the
Venezuelan presidents willingness to reach an agreement provided that
Bogotá would agree to a thorough investigation of Grandas capture Pérez
Roque returned to Havana and that same night Castro and Uribe had a long
conversation in which the basic outlines of a compromise began to be
discerned. Following a meeting with Cubas Assistant Foreign Minister,
Abelardo Romero, and discussions with key Colombian businessmen who were
increasingly worried over the financial consequences of Venezuelas decision
to suspend trade with Colombia, Uribe personally wrote a letter agreeing to
some of Chávezs demands while stipulating that his concerns ultimately lie
with the Colombian people. The details of the compromise were later worked
out by the foreign ministers of both countries at the CAN summit held in
Lima on January 27. The following day, Colombias ministry of foreign
affairs released a statement announcing the the incident [between the two
countries] has been overcome and that Chávez and Uribe would meet in
Caracas on February 3 to consummate the agreement although the encounter
was subsequently postponed to February 15 after Uribe fell ill.
Uribe, careful not to embarrass Washington but at the same time trying to
seve his own countrys authentic national interests, which are far from
identical to those of the U.S., has kept Castros prominent role in the
negotiations mostly under wraps, although he is known to be grateful for it.
Chávez, of course, held no such qualms and on January 30, while
participating in the World Social Forum in Brazil, thanked Cuba, Brazil and
Peru for their assistance in resolving his countrys dispute with Colombia,
referring to its leaders as worried friends. Castros decision to help
mediate, though, was not based solely on altruistic intentions. In fact, not
only does the manner in which the dispute was ultimately resolved provide
the Cuban strongman with an honored place to hang his diplomatic hat, but
more importantly, it also benefits Castro that Chávez, his closest
hemispheric ally, has been able to maintain constructive relations with the
rest of the region and come out of the incident with increased prestige. In
any event, Havanas success must be seen as Washingtons failure.
Two Bulls Stand Down
To understand why the recent crisis between Venezuela and Colombia
mushroomed into the most intense diplomatic dispute between the two
neighbors in decades, one must first understand that it was primarily a
confrontation between two men with very strong convictions and the
wherewithal to defend them. Because the Granda affair dealt with two issues
that both Chávez and Uribe consider as being of paramount importance to
their respective nations and their hold on power, the dispute was able to
escalate far beyond that of the usual diplomatic spat. Both presidents,
despite subscribing to diametrically opposed ideological positions, share
many similarities: both lead highly personalistic governments whose popular
mandate is based on the fact that a majority of their constituents perceive
them as strong and willful leaders who operate in ways that distinguish them
from their predecessors.
This feeling is especially evident in Venezuela, where Chávez is hailed by a
poor majority that virtually had been ignored by a long line of centrist
leaders who were content to govern according to the interests of the
countrys elite and at a price of wanton corruption. Chávezs rhetoric,
therefore, is laced with heavy nationalistic and populist overtones and
guarantees to reaffirm Venezuelan sovereignty and equality for all of its
citizens in the face of foreign and domestic aggression. On the other
hand, Uribe has confronted Colombias decades-long conflict with both right-
and left-wing guerrilla groups with an aggressiveness that places him in
stark contrast with his somewhat disgraced, if high-minded predecessor,
Andrés Pastrana. Pastrana, who adopted a more conciliatoryhis critics would
claim weakstance against the insurgency. Uribe, on the other hand, has
consistently increased and expanded his countrys military budget and size,
demonstrating his commitment to challenge the guerrilla forces head on
regardless of the consequences or level of casualties.
The Granda affair served to highlight abiding and contentious issues on both
sides of the border, which to an extent precluded them from adopting a more
conciliatory and proactive approach to resolving the ensuing crisis. Such a
position could have allowed each leader to be perceived as weak and could
potentially have risked undermining some of their sources of support. This
reality exacerbated a situation that normally could have been resolved
through the type of open face-to-face discussions that, in the months
preceding Grandas capture, had led to a noticeable improvement in
VenezuelaColombia bilateral relations. Following yesterdays meeting
between Chávez and Uribe, the latter acknowledged as much, stating that when
future disagreements arise the approach should be prudent with more
direct communication and less yellow journalism.
In the end, foreign mediation helped to induce both Caracas and Bogotá to
reach a diplomatic agreement that in reality they were anxious to achieve
all along, with vital economic factors undoubtedly exerting pressure for a
timely settlement. Venezuela is Colombias second largest trading partner
($2.5 billion in bilateral trade) and Chávezs decision to suspend
commercial ties placed a heavy burden on the latters economy. As of January
29, for example, five large coal producing corporations that operate in the
Colombian state of Santander estimated their losses resulting from the
disagreement at $1.7 million. Furthermore, the dispute threatened to derail
a number of critical commercial agreements vital to bringing about Chávezs
economic platform, foremost among them the building of a $120 million,
92-mile pipeline from Venezuelas oil rich Maracaibo region to Colombias
Pacific coast, which is mainly designed to satisfy Chinas expanding demand
for oil and to diversify Caracas dependence on the US market. The rupture
over Granda resulted in an economic burden that neither country was willing
to bear in the long run and served as a strong incentive for both sides to
reach a compromise as soon as possible. Following the February 15 meeting,
Caracas and Bogotá have now resumed normalized diplomatic and economic ties.
Left unanswered is why throughout the ordeal Washington was content to
remain caviling from the sidelines, offering little hope that an improvement
in relations with some of its more recalcitrant hemispheric neighbors would
be forthcoming or even particularly desired.
This analysis was prepared by Gabriel Espinosa-Gonzalez, COHA Research
Fellow.
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