[Peace-discuss] Fwd: Iran's arguments for nuclear power make some sense

Thu Mar 3 11:31:33 CST 2005

This article does not contest that Iran may be seeking a nuclear 
deterrent, but it gives a different slant than most on the question of 
its claims. In any case (as has been remarked elsewhere) any patriotic 
Iranian, surrounded as they are by American bases, and in the gun 
sights of Israel, would want to work for an Iranian nuclear deterrent.

--mkb

>
> ANALYSIS - Iran's arguments for nuclear power make some sense
>
> TEHRAN, March 2 (Reuters) - Iran's argument that despite vast oil and
> gas reserves it needs nuclear po! wer to meet booming energy demand
> holds more water than U.S. officials give credit.
>
> But Tehran, which denies U.S. accusations that it is secretly seeking
> nuclear arms, is on shakier ground with its insistence on producing
> its own fuel for atomic reactors through uranium enrichment -- a
> costly endeavour, both economically and politically, for the Islamic
> state.
>
> In the absence of a "smoking gun," Washington often says the fact
> Iran is the No. 2 producer in OPEC and sits on the second biggest
> natural gas reserves in the world is enough to make its atomic
> ambitions suspicious.
>
> The Foreign Affairs Select Committee of Britain's parliament said
> last March that based on a study it commissioned: "It is clear ...
> that the arguments as to whether Iran has a genuine requirement for
> domestically produced nuclear electricity are not all, or even
> predominantly, on one side."
>
> Some U.S. arguments against Iran "were not supported by an analysis
> of the facts" the committee added, noting that much of the natural
> gas flared off by Iran -- which U.S. officials say could be harnessed
> instead of nuclear power -- was not recoverable for energy use.
>
> Iranian officials are quick to point out that before the 1979 Islamic
> revolution, which brought clerics to power, the United States firmly
> supported its ally the Shah's plans to build up to 23 atomic reactors
> by 1994.
>
> "At that time we were the second biggest oil producer in the world.
> Now we are the fifth and our population has almost tripled," Ali
> Akbar Salehi, an adviser to Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi and an
> expert on nuclear affairs, told Reuters.
>
> HEAVY ENERGY CONSUMER
>
> Nearly 40 percent of Iran's 4 million barrels a day oil output is
> consumed locally. Iran imports hundreds of millions of dollars' worth
> of gasoline a year to meet demand.
>
> "It's true we're an energy-rich country, but we are a heavy consumer
> as well," said Salehi.
>
> Precious oil export revenues, on which the state-dominated economy is
> highly dependent, would be wasted on electricity production, Iran
> says. Natural gas is more valuable as feedstock for petrochemical
> plants, it adds.
>
> "Despite being very rich in energy (resources), nuclear energy makes
> perfect sense," agreed Pavel Baev, an analyst at the Oslo-based
> International Peace Research Institute.
>
> With a youthful population of nearly 70 million and a fast-growing
> economy, energy consumption is rising by around 7 percent annually.
> Iran estimates that it may need capacity to generate some 90 GW by
> 2020, from about 31 GW at present.
>
> About three quarters of current electricity needs come from gas-fired
> power stations, and the rest from hydroelectricity or oil.
>
> Iran is experimenting with wind power and geothermal energy but says
> it wants to produce at least 7 GW from nuclear power by 2020. The
> first 1,000 MW reactor, being built with Russian help in the southern
> port of Bushehr, will come onstream next year.
>
> Nuclear energy is cleaner than fossil fuels and its higher cost of
> production does not take into account the opportunity cost lost from
> the more profitable uses for hydrocarbons and likely future penalties
> for burning fossil fuels, Iran says.
>
> "Iran wants to ... change its energy portfolio in favour of clean and
> renewable sources, as recommended by the Kyoto protocol," Mohammad
> Hossein Adeli, Iran's ambassador to the UK, wrote in the Financial
> Times last month.
>
> Iran is not the only resource-rich country to diversify its energy
> needs away from hydrocarbons. Fellow OPEC member Venezuela meets more
> than 70 percent of its electricity demand from hydroelectric power.
> Russia, a major oil exporter with huge gas reserves, is a leading
> nuclear energy power.
>
> ENRICHMENT NOT VIABLE
>
> But Moscow, whic! h hopes to play a major role in Iran's nuclear energy
> expansion plans, says Iran's attempt to develop a full atomic fuel
> cycle, including uranium enrichment -- the most sensitive aspect of
> its nuclear programme -- is not economically viable.
>
> "There is technically proven data, which shows the creation of a full
> cycle for a country with less than eight to 10 reactors worth 1,000
> megawatts each, is not feasible and in fact ruinous," Alexander
> Rumyantsev, head of Russia's Atomic Energy Agency, said on Monday.
> "We keep telling this to the Iranians."
>
> Iran has paid a high political cost for refusing to scrap uranium
> enrichment, which can be used to make bomb-grade, as well as reactor,
> fuel.
>
> It risks being hauled before the U.N. Security Council and could even
> face military attack unless it can reach agreement on its atomic
> plans in talks with the European Union.
>
> But Tehran says it has learned from past experience that it cannot be
> dependent on others.
>
> "We need to spend $10 to $12 billion to build the seven nuclear power
> plants," said Salehi. "Imagine after building them they say we cannot
> supply your nuclear fuel, what should we do? We cannot challenge the
> world to give us the fuel, so we have to have security of supply."
>
> -------------------------------------
> Sandy Perle
> Senior Vice President, Technical Operations
> Global Dosimetry Solutions, Inc.
> 2652 McGaw Avenue
> Irvine, CA 92614
>
> Tel: (949) 296-2306 / (888) 437-1714  Extension 2306
> Fax:(949) 296-1902
>
> E-Mail: sperle at dosimetry.com
> E-Mail: sandyfl at earthlink.net
>
> Global Dosimetry Website: http://www.dosimetry.com/
> Personal Website: http://sandy-travels.com/
>
>
>
> -
>
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> http://mail.yahoo.com
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: not available
Type: text/enriched
Size: 6254 bytes
Desc: not available
Url : http://lists.chambana.net/cgi-bin/private/peace-discuss/attachments/20050303/e9b5bd5c/attachment-0001.bin