[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, August 3, 2006

Thu Aug 3 15:13:19 CDT 2006

Just Foreign Policy News
August 3, 2006

In this issue:
1) Just Foreign Policy does more radio on "Uniting for Peace"
2) Iran, Other Islamic States May Call for UN Meeting
3) New Poll Shows Lieberman Losing Ground
4) Israel Restarts Beirut Strikes; Blair Says U.N. Near Deal
5) Civilians Lose as Fighters Slip Into Fog of War
6) News Analysis: Israel's Long-Term Battle
7) Kafr Kila: To Many in a Town Under Attack, Militiamen Are Defenders
8) The Fighting: Israeli Jets, Helicopters and Ground Forces Attack
Baalbek, Hezbollah Hub in Bekaa Valley
9) Israeli Warplanes Pound Beirut's Suburbs
10) Among the Militiamen, Patience and Talk of Victory
11)  7 Palestinians Killed in Gaza
12) World Opinion Roundup: The Qana Conspiracy Theory
13) Future of Orthodox Jewish Vote Has Implications for GOP
14) Detainees: G.I.'s Say Officers Ordered Killing of Young Iraqi Men
15) In Iraq, It's Hard to Trust Anyone in Uniform
16) A Grim Prognosis for Iraq
17) Lebanon could overshadow Iran's study of nuclear deal
18) Iran warns of $200 oil if US pursues sanctions
19) Iran&#39; s President Voices New Optimism
20) Mexico Leftist Threatens More Protests

Contents:
1) Just Foreign Policy does more radio on "Uniting for Peace"
Radio journalists continue to express interest in the idea that the UN
General Assembly could act to bring about a cease-fire in Lebanon,
given the failure of the Security Council to do so, under Resolution
377 (see also the next item on the Organization of Islamic Conference
calling for UN General Assembly action.) Just Foreign Policy was
interviewed by the BBC this morning, and will be on KGNU Boulder
tomorrow 10:30-11:30 Eastern, 8:30-9:30 Mountain, webcast at
www.kgnu.org. The Just Foreign Policy petition in support of UN
General Assembly action is at
http://www.democracyinaction.org/dia/organizationsORG/justforeignpolicy.org/petition.jsp?petition_KEY=325.
The list of signatories is growing.

2) Iran, Other Islamic States May Call for UN Meeting
Angus Whitley
Bloomberg
Last Updated: August 3, 2006 07:51 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aUPZZwugopYo&refer=europe#
Iran, Turkey, Pakistan and 15 other states said they will call for a
meeting of the UN General Assembly to achieve a cease-fire in the
Middle East should the UN Security Council fail to end hostilities
immediately. The UN Security Council should enforce an
"unconditional'' cease-fire without delay, the Organization of Islamic
Conference said today in a statement after meeting in Malaysia. The
group said OIC countries should cooperate with UN members to support a
General Assembly meeting in the absence of instant measures to end the
fighting. "We strongly condemn the relentless Israeli aggression
against Lebanon,'' the group said. "We express our concern at the
inability of the UN Security Council to take the necessary actions for
a cease-fire.'' The OIC meeting, convened by Malaysia, is the largest
gathering of Muslim nations since war broke out in Lebanon last month.

3) New Poll Shows Lieberman Losing Ground
Associated Press
August 3, 2006
Filed at 8:45 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Connecticut-Senate.html
Businessman Ned Lamont opened a double-digit lead over veteran Sen.
Joe Lieberman less than a week before Connecticut's Democratic
primary, according to a poll released Thursday. Lamont had support
from 54 percent of likely Democratic voters in the Quinnipiac
University poll, while Lieberman, now in his third term, had support
from 41 percent of voters. The sampling error margin was plus or minus
3 percentage points.
A similar survey July 20 showed Lamont with a slight advantage for the
first time in the campaign. ''Senator Lieberman's campaign bus seems
to be stuck in reverse,'' poll director Douglas Schwartz said.
''Despite visits from former President Bill Clinton and other big-name
Democrats, Lieberman has not been able to stem the tide to Lamont.''
''Although we realize the only vote that counts is Aug. 8, we hope
this energizes our base,'' said Liz Dupont-Diehl, a spokeswoman for
the Lamont campaign.

4) Israel Restarts Beirut Strikes; Blair Says U.N. Near Deal
John Kifner And John O'Neil
New York Times
August 3, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/03/world/middleeast/03cnd-mideast.html
British Prime Minister Blair said that the UN Security Council would
likely agree within the next two days on a cease-fire plan that would
be followed by negotiations for a longer-term settlement. The two-step
approach marks a sharp change from the position held previously by
Blair and President Bush, who have resisted halting the fighting until
a plan for a "sustainable" peace could be adopted. Blair acknowledged
that the new approach reflects the "very real danger" that continued
civilian deaths and destruction in Lebanon could end up making
Hezbollah and other extremist groups more popular. Blair said that the
negotiations that would follow a cease-fire would be based on both
Israel's need for security from Hezbollah attacks and on the
seven-point plan put forward by Lebanon's Prime Minister, which calls
for a prisoner exchange and an Israeli withdrawal from disputed
territory along the border.

The Israeli Defense Forces announced that an investigation into the
bombing at Qana said the raid was based on mistaken information "that
the building was not inhabited by civilians and was being used as a
hiding place for terrorists." Dan Halutz, the chief of staff, said
that policies on the choosing of targets would be reviewed. Much of
southern Lebanon was a landscape of destruction on Wednesday, with
smoke rising from shelled villages.

The Maronite Catholic patriarch convened a meeting this week of
religious leaders of other communities, Shiite and Sunni Muslims and
several varieties of Christians, resulting in a statement of
solidarity and photographs in Wednesday's newspapers. Their joint
statement, condemning the Israeli "aggression," hailed "the
resistance, mainly led by Hezbollah, which represents one of the
sections of society." [Editor's note: A recent poll in Lebanon, cited
by Jefferson Morley in item 12, suggests that four out of five
Lebanese Christians support Hizbollah's "resistance against the
Israeli aggression.":
http://www.beirutcenter.info/default.asp?contentid=692&MenuID=46.]

5) Civilians Lose as Fighters Slip Into Fog of War
Sabrina Tavernise
New York Times
August 3, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/03/world/middleeast/03civilian.html
A convoy of Lebanese villagers was fleeing north shortly after the war
began. They had heard Israeli soldiers telling them to evacuate.
Suddenly, a rocket struck a pickup truck full of people. Twenty-one
people were killed, more than half of them children. Israel said it
believed the convoy was transporting rockets. The convoy had not
notified Israel that it was going to make the trip. Those who survived
said in interviews that they were simply following Israeli orders to
flee the south as best they could. The case was one of those noted in
a report released on Wednesday by Human Rights Watch. It said the
killings formed a pattern so extensive that it seemed to indicate that
the Israelis were deliberately shooting civilians. It went so far as
to accuse Israel of war crimes. "In many of these strikes there is no
military objective anywhere in the vicinity," said Peter Bouckaert,
who conducted the study. "Day after day we are documenting these
strikes where they clearly hit civilian targets."

6) News Analysis: Israel's Long-Term Battle
Steven Erlanger
New York Times
August 3, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/03/world/middleeast/03israel.html
Israel is fighting now to win the battle of perceptions. Prime
Minister Olmert wants to ensure that when a cease-fire is finally
arranged, Israel is seen as having won a decisive victory over
Hezbollah. It is important for him politically. Israel wants to
recover from an image of an unimpressive military venture against a
tough, small, but well-trained group of fighters. Israel also wants to
send a message to the Palestinians, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, that
attacks on Israel will be met with overwhelming force. Giora Eiland,
Israel's national security adviser under Sharon, predicts a solution
in the next week or so that is "far from Israel's original intent." He
sees a political package negotiated at the UN that includes an
exchange of Lebanese prisoners, with Israel regaining its two
soldiers; a security zone in southern Lebanon under the control of a
multinational force; an Israeli promise not to violate Lebanon's
sovereignty; and "a general understanding or commitment by the
Lebanese government to be responsible for Hezbollah's behavior."

7) Kafr Kila: To Many in a Town Under Attack, Militiamen Are Defenders
Jad Mouawad
New York Times
August 3, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/03/world/middleeast/03village.html
For the past week, Israel's army has thrown everything at Kafr Kila.
It has bombed it, unleashed tank fire against it, lobbed phosphorus
shells into it. Many residents have fled the destruction, but so far
the defenders, local fighters with Hezbollah and allied factions, have
held on.  Villagers are overwhelmingly supportive of the group and of
allied organizations like Amal. Kafr Kila has been without power or
water since the Israeli attack began nearly three weeks ago. Food and
medicine are running short for residents who have remained.

8) Israeli Jets, Helicopters and Ground Forces Attack Baalbek,
Hezbollah Hub in Bekaa Valley
Hassan M. Fattah
New York Times
August 3, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/03/world/middleeast/03baalbek.html
In peacetime, Baalbek is best known for its Roman ruins and its summer
festivals. But in war, it is a prime target, a strategic center for
Hezbollah in the Bekaa Valley. Seven people, including two children,
were killed when Israeli planes bombed a house in Jamaliye, a few
miles outside Baalbek. In the house were about 50 members of an
extended family who had fled the house when the jets were flying over.
After the family returned, a rocket landed in the garden, one relative
said.

9) Israeli Warplanes Pound Southern Beirut
Hezbollah Sprays Rockets, Killing 5 Israelis
Jonathan Finer, Edward Cody and Debbi Wilgoren
Washington Post
Thursday, August 3, 2006; 10:42 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/03/AR2006080300305.html
Israeli warplanes pounded the southern suburbs of Beirut Thursday for
the first time in eight days, and a barrage of Hezbollah rockets fired
across the border killed at least five people in northern Israel.
Hezbollah fighters and Israeli ground troops were engaged in fierce
ground battles in Lebanese border towns and villages that left two
Israeli soldiers dead and two others injured. Israeli jets also bombed
roads and bridges in the northern part of Lebanon, in an apparent
effort to cut off potential resupply routes from Syria.
Lebanese prime minister Fuad Siniora said the death toll in his
country has risen above 900 in the three weeks since hostilities broke
out after a Hezbollah raid into Israel. More than 3,000 have been
wounded, Siniora said. He said a third of the total casualties have
been children under 12.

10) Among Militia's Patient Loyalists, Confidence and Belief in Victory
Anthony Shadid
Washington Post
Thursday, August 3, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/02/AR2006080201584.html
Three weeks into its war with Israel, Hezbollah has retained its
presence in southern Lebanon, often the sole authority in devastated
towns along the Israeli border. The militia is elusive, with few
logistics, little hierarchy and less visibility. Even residents often
say they don't know how the militiamen operate or are organized.
Communication is by walkie-talkie, always in code, and sometimes
messages are delivered by motorcycle.

11)  Seven Palestinians Killed in Israeli Raid in Rafah
Molly Moore
Washington Post
Thursday, August 3, 2006; 7:24 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/03/AR2006080300293.html
Israeli military forces killed seven Palestinians, including a
13-year-old boy, during a midnight attack on the outskirts of Rafah.
At least two of those killed were identified as members of the
militant group Islamic Jihad, according to a report issued by the
organization. Palestinian witnesses in the area reported that the
Israeli military fired tank rounds and fired rockets from an unmanned
drone patrolling overhead. They said Israeli forces enter the area
nightly in search of Palestinian fighters.

12) World Opinion Roundup: The Qana Conspiracy Theory
Jefferson Morley
Washington Post
August 2, 2006; 10:30 AM ET
http://blogs.washingtonpost.com/worldopinionroundup/
An alternative view of the Qana attack is emerging in blogs -- that
the incident was actually staged by Hezbollah. The Qana conspiracy
theory not only underscores how the Internet can misinform, it also
reveals a popular demand for online content that attempts to explain
away news reports that Israel (and by proxy, its closest ally and arms
supplier, the United States) was responsible for the deaths of dozens
of women and children in a Hezbollah stronghold. At a time when
American and Israeli public opinion of the war diverge radically from
the world opinion elsewhere, the emergence of a right-wing equivalent
of the Sept. 11 conspiracy theories is worth noting. EU Referendum
claimed that a Lebanese rescue worker seen in many photos from Qana
was a "Hezbollah official." I e-mailed co-author of the site, Richard
North, to ask for his evidence. "All I have to go on is gut instinct,"
North replied. I appreciate his candor. It confirms that he has no
evidence to support the central claim of his blog posts. North says he
is just trying to "raise questions," which is certainly a legitimate
goal. My question is: What is it about the photos from Qana that made
Israel's supporters prefer fantasy to fact?

13) Future of Orthodox Jewish Vote Has Implications for GOP
Small but Growing Group Receptive to Republican Ideas
Jim VandeHei
Washington Post
Thursday, August 3, 2006; Page A06
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/02/AR2006080201692.html
Republicans are hoping a strong defense of Israel translates into
greater support among Jewish voters this fall, but the biggest
political benefits are likely to come long after the 2006 campaign
concludes, according to political and demographic experts studying
Jewish voting trends. The Jewish group proving most receptive to
Republican overtures over the past decade is among the smallest:
Orthodox Jews. Right now, they account for roughly 10 percent of the
estimated 5.3 million Jews in the United States, hardly enough to tip
most elections. This is likely to change significantly in the years
ahead because Orthodox Jews are the fastest-growing segment of the
Jewish population, raising the possibility that one of the most
reliable Democratic voting blocs will be increasingly in play in
future elections, according to surveys of Jewish voting and religious
and social habits.

14) G.I.'s Say Officers Ordered Killing of Young Iraqi Men
Paul von Zielbauer
New York Times
August 3, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/03/world/middleeast/03abuse.html
Four American soldiers from an Army combat unit that killed three
Iraqis in a raid in May testified Wednesday that they had received
orders from superior officers to kill all the military-age men they
encountered. The soldiers gave their accounts at a military hearing to
determine if four colleagues should face courts-martial on charges
that they carried out a plan to murder the three Iraqis. Their
testimony gave credence to statements from two defendants that an
officer had told their platoon to "kill all military-age males" in the
assault. That officer, Col. Michael Steele, has declined to testify,
an unusual decision for a commander. "We are now talking about the
possibility of command responsibility, not just unlawful orders and
simple murder," said Gary D. Solis, a former military judge and
prosecutor who teaches the law of war at Georgetown University.
Colonel Steele, who led the 1993 mission in Somalia later made famous
in the film "Black Hawk Down," has a reputation for aggressive
measures. In Iraq, as a commander involved in harrowing assaults
against insurgents, he inspired the use of "kill boards" to track how
many Iraqis each soldier had killed over time.

15) In Iraq, It's Hard to Trust Anyone in Uniform
Damien Cave
New York Times
August 3, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/03/world/middleeast/03uniforms.html
The camouflaged Iraqi commandos who kidnapped 20 people from a pair of
central Baghdad offices this week used Interior Ministry vehicles and
left little trace of their true identities. Were they legitimate
officers? Members of a Shiite or Sunni death squad? Or criminals in
counterfeit uniforms bought at the market? Majid Hamid, a Sunni human
rights worker whose brother was kidnapped and killed by men in uniform
four months ago, said he doubted that the answer would ever be known.
Now, he said, the authorities normally trusted to investigate may be
responsible for the crime. "Whenever I see uniforms now, I figure they
must be militias," Mr. Hamid said in a recent interview. "I
immediately try to avoid them. If I have my gun, I know I need to be
ready to use it."

16) 'Low Intensity Civil War' Likely in Iraq, Ambassador Says
Mary Jordan and Fred Barbash
Washington Post
Thursday, August 3, 2006; 7:10 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/03/AR2006080300277.html
Britain's outgoing ambassador to Iraq has advised his government that
the country is more likely headed to "low intensity civil war" and
sectarian partition than to a stable democracy, the BBC reported
Wednesday. The network said it obtained a diplomatic dispatch from
William Patey to Prime Minister Blair and top members of Blair's
cabinet.
Patey wrote that "the prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de
facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a
successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy. Even the
lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq -- a government that
can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in
the war on terror -- must remain in doubt." Meanwhile, Defense
Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has reversed a decision to skip a public
hearing on Capitol Hill and said he will testify Thursday at a session
on the Iraq war. The move came after pressure from Senate Democrats
who urged him to come before the Senate Armed Services Committee to
answer questions about the administration's Iraq policies.

17) Lebanon could overshadow Iran's study of nuclear deal
Clarence Fernandez
Reuters
Thursday, August 3, 2006; 9:47 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/03/AR2006080300576.html
Iran said on Thursday it was still weighing an international package
of incentives to suspend its nuclear programme but conflict in Lebanon
had diverted its attention. On Monday, the U.N. Security Council
demanded that Iran suspend its nuclear activities by August 31 or face
the threat of sanctions, although Iran responded by insisting on its
right to produce nuclear fuel. "We have said we are open to
negotiations, and in the shadow of negotiations it is possible to
settle any dispute," President Ahmadinejad said."And even now some
sort of dialogue is going on, but the crimes committed by the Zionist
regime have overshadowed all our considerations," he said in a
reference to Israel's campaign in Lebanon.

18) Iran warns of $200 oil if US pursues sanctions
Reuters
Thursday, August 3, 2006; 10:59 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/03/AR2006080300577.html
Global oil prices could hit $200 per barrel if the United States
pursues international sanctions against Iran, an Iranian official said
on Thursday, although analysts passed the comment off as saber
rattling. Markets appeared to shrug off the comment, with U.S. crude
oil falling $1.01 to $74.80 on signs that Tropical Storm Chris would
not become a hurricane. Tension over Iran's nuclear ambitions, which
has rattled oil markets in recent weeks, has been overshadowed by the
bloody conflict in Lebanon.

19) Iran's President Voices New Optimism
Associated Press
August 3, 2006
Filed at 10:21 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html
Iran's president expressed optimism Thursday that the dispute over his
country's nuclear program can be resolved through talks, despite
mounting impatience with his rejection of U.N. Security Council
demands to suspend uranium enrichment. Underlining the international
concern, one of Iran's leading trade partners, Russia, issued a
statement Thursday telling the Tehran regime it must respect the
council's Aug. 31 deadline to stop enrichment.

20) Mexico Leftist Threatens More Protests
Reuters
August 3, 2006
Filed at 0:41 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mexico-election.html
Lopez Obrador, heading protests to pressure Mexico's electoral court
into ordering a full recount of votes in the July 2 presidential
election, threatened on Wednesday to turn the screws even tighter
despite anger over demonstrations that have crippled Mexico City.
Thousands of Lopez Obrador's supporters have seized the capital's vast
Zocalo square and main Reforma boulevard, causing three days of
traffic chaos and drawing fire from the government. "Mexico City
belongs to everyone. All those who live here deserve to have their
rights respected,'' said Ruben Aguilar, spokesman for President
Vicente Fox.
The protests have been peaceful, but are angering residents and
alienating some former Lopez Obrador supporters. Lopez Obrador has
apologized for the disruption, but insisted it was a small price to
pay. The former Mexico City mayor said he would decide whether to step
up the campaign of civil disobedience after a court decision over a
recount, which he expected within days. "It causes annoyance, anger,
we know that, but there is no other choice ... we have to make
democracy count in our country,'' he said.

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Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org