[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, August 16, 2006

Wed Aug 16 13:04:05 CDT 2006

Just Foreign Policy News
August 16, 2006

In this issue:
1) The P5+1 Proposal: What's in it for Iran?
2) Group Says Iran Is 'Not A Crisis'
3) Iran 'will discuss nuclear halt'
4) Ray Close: The Building War on Iran
5) Fearing Prosecution, Bush Admin Tries to Change War Crimes Act
6) Number of Civilian Deaths Highest in July, Iraqis Say
7) Rebuilding Lebanon's shattered economy
8) Israeli army chief under attack over share sell-off
9) Not all nations welcome in Lebanon force-Israel source
10) In Congress, Lonely on Lebanon
11) As Israel Begins to Pull Troops Out, Lebanon and the U.N. Prepare
to Replace Them
12) U.N. Peace Efforts Threatened
13) Israel Plans to Remain in Lebanon Until Force Arrives
14) Hezbollah Leads Work to Rebuild, Gaining Stature
15) Policy: Bush Said to Be Frustrated by Level of Public Support in Iraq
16) Mexico Election Protesters Vow 'Siege'

Contents:
1) The P5+1 Proposal: What's in it for Iran?
Gareth Porter
National Iranian American Council website
August 15, 2006
http://www.niacouncil.org/pressreleases/press417.asp#_ftnref3
If Iran insists on negotiating revisions to the P5+1 package proposal
given to Iran on June 5, should that be viewed as the end the
diplomatic process?  That is how Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
has framed the issue, and most comment in the media has supported that
view. But very few commentators are familiar with the actual content
of the P5+1 proposal, which was not released to the public when it was
given to Iran.  A careful reading of the proposal, now available on
the French foreign ministry website, reveals a fundamental problem: it
fails to offer Iran even the potential for the kind of security
benefits that might be expected to accompany the demands that the same
proposal makes on Iran.

2) Group Says Iran Is 'Not A Crisis'
Former generals and officials seek to prevent an attack on suspected
nuclear sites and to overhaul policies toward Tehran and Baghdad.
Peter Spiegel
Los Angeles Times
August 16, 2006
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/la-na-generals16aug16,1,4556797.story
Seeking to counter the White House's depiction of its Middle East
policies as crucial to the prevention of terrorist attacks at home, 21
former generals, diplomats and national security officials will
release an open letter tomorrow arguing that the administration's
"hard line" has actually undermined U.S. security. Retired Army Lt.
Gen. Robert Gard said the group was particularly concerned about
administration policies toward Iran, believing them to be a possible
prelude to a military attack on suspected nuclear sites in that
country. Gard said the signatories did not believe that Iran had the
wherewithal to build a nuclear weapon in the immediate future and
would push the administration to open negotiations with Tehran on the
issue. "It's not a crisis," Gard said. "To call the Iranian situation
a 'crisis' connotes you have to do something right now, like bomb
them." He noted that Iran had sought to open negotiations with the
U.S. through Swiss intermediaries, efforts that the letter-signers
said were worth exploring as a means of defusing tensions in the
region.

3) Iran 'will discuss nuclear halt'
BBC News
2006/08/16
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4797827.stm
Iran is ready to discuss the suspension of its uranium enrichment
programme as demanded by Western powers, the country's foreign
minister has said. Manouchehr Mottaki told a news conference that Iran
was ready to talk but still regarded any suspension of its programme
as "illogical". A package of incentives has been offered to Iran by
six world powers in return for a halt to its programme. Tehran has
said it will respond to the offer by 22 August. "We are ready to
discuss all the issues, including the suspension. There is no logic
behind the suspension of Iran's activities. We are ready to explain
this to them," Mr Mottaki said.

4) The Building War on Iran
Ray Close, retired CIA analyst
Informed Comment (Juan Cole's blog)
August 16, 2006
http://www.juancole.com
Despite vehement official assertions to the contrary, indications are
increasing every day that the Bush Administration has already decided
that conventional diplomacy will fail as a way to manage its
confrontation with Iran, and that military action against the Teheran
regime has therefore already reached the point of final countdown.

5) Fearing Prosecution, Bush Admin Tries to Change War Crimes Act
Democracy Now
Wednesday, August 16th, 2006
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/08/16/148250
The White House recently proposed changes to the War Crimes Act that
would narrow the scope of punishable offenses under the Geneva
Conventions. The new list would exclude humiliating or degrading
treatment of prisoners. We host a debate with attorneys Scott Horton,
adjunct law professor at Columbia University and the former chair of
the Committee on International Human Rights at the City Bar
Association in New York; and David Rivkin, partner in the Washington
office of Baker & Hostetler. He served in the Department of Justice
and the White House in the Reagan and George HW Bush Administrations.

6) Number of Civilian Deaths Highest in July, Iraqis Say
Edward Wong And Damien Cave
New York Times
August 16, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/world/middleeast/16iraq.html
July appears to have been the deadliest month of the war for Iraqi
civilians, according to figures from the Health Ministry and the
Baghdad morgue, reinforcing criticism that the Baghdad security plan
started in June by the new government has failed. An average of more
than 110 Iraqis were killed each day in July, according to the
figures. The total number of civilian deaths that month, 3,438, is a 9
percent increase over the tally in June and nearly double the toll in
January. The rising numbers suggested that sectarian violence is
spiraling out of control, and seemed to bolster an assertion many
senior Iraqi officials and American military analysts have made in
recent months: that the country is already embroiled in a civil war.
The numbers also provide the most definitive evidence yet that the
Baghdad security plan started by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki
on June 14 has not quelled the violence.

7) Rebuilding Lebanon's shattered economy
Jorn Madslien
BBC News
2006/08/15
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4794739.stm
Throughout the conflict, a string of world leaders have vowed to help
once the fighting had stopped - not only with humanitarian aid but
also by helping pay for restructuring efforts. Now they will be asked
to put their money where their mouths were. Tunisia's president has
called for an emergency summit of Arab leaders, urging collective
support for the rebuilding of the war-torn country. And Sweden has
organised a donor conference on 31 August, which some 60 countries and
aid agencies are expected to attend. Much of the $50 billion injected
into the country during the past decade to rebuild after the 1975-1989
civil war was spent on roads and power lines, schools and sport
centres, hospitals and airports. Many of these are now in ruins. The
Lebanese government estimates the infrastructure damage alone could
amount to US$2.5 billion. Lebanon's economy ministry says about one in
five of the country's million or so refugees have been rendered
homeless by the war, and estimates that the total cost of the damage
to houses might even be greater than it was during the civil war.
Lebanon will find it increasingly hard to service its $35 billion
debts. The government had been planning economic reforms including the
privatisation of its power and telecoms sectors, tax rises and a
tighter grip on the government's purse strings. These plans may now
have to be shelved.

8) Israeli army chief under attack over share sell-off
http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=L1599689
Israeli army chief under attack over share sell-off
Tue 15 Aug 2006 8:11 AM ET
Israel's armed forces chief, Lieutenant-General Dan Halutz,  came
under political fire on Tuesday after a newspaper reported he sold off
a stock portfolio just hours after Hizbollah abducted two Israeli
soldiers in a raid that triggered a month-long war. The Maariv daily
said Halutz went to his bank branch and sold shares worth 120,000
shekels ($27,460) three hours after the soldiers were seized by the
Lebanese guerrilla group on July 12. Key share indexes in Israel fell
around 12 percent at the outset of fighting between Israeli forces and
Hizbollah after the abduction. Share prices gradually recovered and
now stand slightly below pre-war levels. "It is true that I sold the
portfolio on July 12 but it is impossible to link that to the war. At
the time, I did not expect or think there would be a war," he said,
according to Maariv. [Note: Seymour Hersh's article reported that the
plan to invade Lebanon was already set before the abduction and it had
been agreed that it would be launched on the next provocation. This is
consistent with reporting by the San Francisco Chronicle. Thus, the
claim by Halutz, who by all accounts was the prime motor of the war in
the Israeli political establishment, that he did not expect a war or
think there was going to be one, after Hizbullah had provided the
anticipated pretext, is highly implausible. -JFP] A day after the
abduction, Israeli aircraft carried out a major attack in Lebanon,
bombing runways at Beirut airport. Several legislators responded to
the report by demanding Israel's attorney-general open an
investigation. One lawmaker called for Halutz's resignation.

9) Not all nations welcome in Lebanon force-Israel source
Reuters
Wed 16 Aug 2006 9:57 AM ET
http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=L16617052
Israel has told the United Nations that it will oppose the inclusion
of troops from countries such as Malaysia in a planned U.N. force for
southern Lebanon, a senior Israeli official said Wednesday. "Israel
has informed the U.N. in no uncertain terms that it will not accept
any countries in the force that do not have diplomatic relations with
Israel," the official said. Objections from Israel could complicate
efforts by the United Nations to quickly assemble a force for southern
Lebanon to enforce a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah that took
effect on Monday. Malaysia and Indonesia have each offered to send
1,000 troops to Lebanon. They have no diplomatic ties with Israel and
strongly support the Palestinian cause. The EU's foreign policy chief,
Javier Solana, over the weekend listed Malaysia and Indonesia among
the non-EU countries prepared to join the international force. Asked
about Malaysia and Indonesia joining the force, Israel's foreign
minister, Tzipi Livni, said on Sunday: "We are not going to say that
there are some states that we believe shouldn't be part of these
forces." But the senior Israeli official said Israel's position had
changed."Some of the countries that have volunteered have cooperated
with Hizbollah," the senior Israeli official said, declining to offer
any details.

10) In Congress, Lonely on Lebanon
Dana Milbank
Washington Post
Wednesday, August 16, 2006; A02
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/15/AR2006081501015.html
Since the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah started, 22 members of
Congress have flown to Israel. Only one went to Lebanon.
"Logistically, it was difficult," Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), the
lone Lebanon traveler, explained. "The Israelis were shooting at
vehicles and so on." One of five Lebanese Americans in Congress, Issa
occupies a no man's land in U.S. politics: a conservative Republican
with a powerful sympathy for the Arab cause. He supports the Iraq war
and voted for a resolution backing Israel in its fight with Hezbollah,
but he has also accused Israel of "apartheid" and scolds the Bush
administration for "missed opportunities" to win Arab friends.
Al-Jazeera propagandists ridicule him, and the radical Jewish Defense
League tried to bomb his office after a WorldNetDaily.com commentator
dubbed him "Jihad Darrell." Yesterday, he was at the National Press
Club, giving a bleak slide show from his trip to Lebanon, and scolding
all parties in the conflict. He condemned Israel's "wanton" violation
of Lebanese territory and its "somewhat failed attempt" to defeat
Hezbollah: "You can't end an idea or a terrorist organization by guns
alone." He disparaged the "few million dollars" the United States gave
Lebanon after last year's eviction of its Syrian masters: "The Cedar
Revolution was our opportunity, our opportunity to seize, and we did
not." The congressman calls for a "dramatic difference" in aid to
Lebanon in the form of a supplemental spending bill.

11) As Israel Begins to Pull Troops Out, Lebanon and the U.N. Prepare
to Replace Them
Steven Erlanger
New York Times
August 16, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/world/middleeast/16mideast.html
Israel began to pull many of its reserve troops out of southern
Lebanon on Tuesday and hopes to be out of the country altogether in
the next week or 10 days, said the military chief of staff, Lt. Gen.
Dan Halutz. The Lebanese Army, which is supposed to join with a
strengthened UN force to establish order as the Israelis withdraw, is
expected to begin moving into the area south of the Litani River in a
couple of days, supported by an early deployment of foreign troops,
said Jean-Marie Guéhenno, the French head of UN peacekeeping forces.
At the UN, Hedi Annabi, the assistant secretary general for
peacekeeping, said he hoped for an initial deployment of up to 3,500
troops within 10 to 15 days. But there was no guarantee that the
process called for in the Security Council resolution that established
a cease-fire would go smoothly. Leaders of Hezbollah have said that
their men will not be disarmed, as called for in the resolution, and
that the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south needs further
discussion inside the government. The cease-fire itself is considered
fragile. Israel killed at least three Hezbollah fighters inside
Lebanon on Tuesday after killing six on Monday, and Hezbollah fired
some rockets at Israeli positions. The Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan
Nasrallah, has said his forces will not stop fighting until all
Israeli troops leave Lebanon, and the Israelis say their current
positions will allow them to continue their advance if necessary.

12) U.N. Peace Efforts Threatened
Countries Urgently Needed to Aid in Lebanon, World Body Says
Colum Lynch
Washington Post
Wednesday, August 16, 2006; A09
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/15/AR2006081501161.html
U.N. and U.S. officials warned Tuesday that governments that have
pledged to assemble a peacekeeping force for southern Lebanon are not
moving swiftly enough to fill a dangerous power vacuum there. Four
days after the Security Council authorized 15,000 U.N. peacekeepers to
help the Lebanese army intervene between Israeli troops and Hezbollah
fighters, not one country has formally committed to sending troops.
Senior U.N. officials said that while many countries have expressed
interest in participating, key powers such as France, Italy, Turkey
and others must commit to a vanguard force of as many as 3,500
peacekeepers within two weeks to avert a resumption of violence. "I
think the next few days are still indeed quite dangerous," Jean-Marie
Guehenno, a French national who heads the U.N. peacekeeping
department, said Tuesday. France, which has been asked to provide the
"backbone" of a new force, has expressed "some hesitancy" about
committing to lead it before knowing which other countries will serve,
a senior U.N. official said. But other countries will not sign on
until France agrees to lead the operation.

13) Israel Plans to Remain in Lebanon Until Force Arrives
Steven Erlanger
New York Times
August 16, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/world/middleeast/16cnd-mideast.html
Israeli troops will remain in southern Lebanon until a multinational
force is deployed there, even if it takes months, the military chief
of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, said today. General Halutz had said on
Tuesday, when Israel started to withdraw troops, that there were hopes
that all of them would be out of Lebanon in the next week or 10 days.
Today, he said Israel will keep troops in the area "until the
multinational force arrives, even if that takes months." He also said
that Israel will stop withdrawing from southern Lebanon if the
Lebanese army fails to deploy within days. That may have an impact on
the fragility of the ceasefire, now in its third day. The Hezbollah
leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, has said his forces will not stop
fighting until all Israeli troops leave Lebanon, and the Israelis say
their current positions will allow them to continue their advance if
necessary.

14) Hezbollah Leads Work to Rebuild, Gaining Stature
John Kifner
New York Times
August 16, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/world/middleeast/16hezbollah.html
As stunned Lebanese returned Tuesday over broken roads to shattered
apartments in the south, it increasingly seemed that the beneficiary
of the destruction was most likely to be Hezbollah. A major reason, in
addition to its hard-won reputation as the only Arab force that fought
Israel to a standstill, is that it is already dominating the efforts
to rebuild with a torrent of money from oil-rich Iran. Nehme Tohme, a
member of Parliament from the anti-Syrian reform bloc and the
country's minister for the displaced, said he had been told by
Hezbollah officials that when the shooting stopped, Iran would provide
Hezbollah with an "unlimited budget" for reconstruction. In his
victory speech on Monday night, Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan
Nasrallah, offered money for "decent and suitable furniture" and a
year's rent on a house to any Lebanese who lost his home in the
month-long war. "Completing the victory," he said, "can come with
reconstruction."

15) Bush Said to Be Frustrated by Level of Public Support in Iraq
August 16, 2006
Thom Shanker And Mark Mazzetti
New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/washington/16policy.html
President Bush made clear in a private meeting this week that he was
concerned about the lack of progress in Iraq and frustrated that the
new Iraqi government and the Iraqi people had not shown greater public
support for the American mission, participants in the meeting said
Tuesday. "I sensed a frustration with the lack of progress on the
bigger picture of Iraq generally - that we continue to lose a lot of
lives, it continues to sap our budget," said one attendee. More
generally, the participants said, the president expressed frustration
that Iraqis had not come to appreciate the sacrifices the US had made
in Iraq, and was puzzled as to how a recent anti-American rally in
support of Hezbollah in Baghdad could draw such a large crowd. "I do
think he was frustrated about why 10,000 Shiites would go into the
streets and demonstrate against the US," said another attendee.
One participant said Bush expressed the view that "the Shia-led
government needs to clearly and publicly express the same appreciation
for US efforts and sacrifices as they do in private." Eric Davis, a
Rutgers University political science professor, said he urged the
creation of more jobs for younger Iraqis, and proposed a major
reconstruction fund to be underwritten by Saudi Arabia and other Arab
oil states seeking regional stability. Mr. Davis took issue with the
administration's order to remove Baath Party members from public
service, and he urged the hiring of more qualified Baathists in Iraq
or living abroad, and inviting retired army officers back into
service.

16) Mexico Election Protesters Vow 'Siege'
Ioan Grillo
The Associated Press
Tuesday, August 15, 2006; 9:40 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/15/AR2006081501168.html
Supporters of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pledged Tuesday to place
conservative Felipe Calderon "under siege" if he is declared the
winner of the disputed presidential elections. Supporters of Calderon
meanwhile accused Lopez Obrador of wanting to make blood flow in the
conflict. The heightened rhetoric came one day after the first violent
incident in a month of protests police saw protesters clash with
police outside the Congress building in Mexico City; the leftists plan
another march on Congress on Sept. 1, and also plan to continue
blockading some streets in Mexico City through Sept. 16, the date of
the traditional Independence Day parade. "He will be a president under
siege ... he will not be able to operate outside his office," Gerardo
Fernandez, spokesman for Lopez Obrador's Democratic Revolution Party,
said. Lopez Obrador has said he "will not accept" Calderon as
president. He claims the race was marred by fraud and has demanded a
full recount, and his supporters tried to set up a protest camp
outside Congress on Monday to press that demand. When police tried to
remove protesters, some resisted or attacked police, and about 8
demonstrators - including at least two lawmakers - were slightly
injured in the confrontation. Fernandez said protesters will again try
to march on Congress on Sept. 1, when President Vicente Fox is
scheduled to deliver his last state-of-the-nation address, and
promised the day "will not be a picnic" for the president.

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Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org