[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, December 18, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
December 18, 2006
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/newsroom/blog/

1323 days have passed since President Bush declared "Mission
Accomplished" in Iraq.
More than 2800 U.S. troops have been killed in Iraq since.

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Summary:
U.S./Top News
Yesterday Sam Husseini of IPA Media asked incoming Senate Majority
Leader Harry Reid, "Isn't continued funding for Bush's execution of
the war continued support for Bush's execution of the war?" Reid
replied: "We're going to do everything we can to make sure that our
troops get everything they need." By conflating supporting funding for
continuing the war with "supporting the troops," Reid is marginalizing
opposition to funding for continuing the war from debate, writes
Robert Naiman on Huffington Post. The problem is that while
Congressional language calling for withdrawal would be a very good
thing, we have every reason to believe that the Bush Administration
may ignore anything but a cutoff of funds.

Former Bush Administration official Flynt Leverett is being censored
by the White House for his criticism of Administration policy towards
Iran, writes Steve Clemons. The White House has forced the CIA to
heavily censor an op-ed draft for the New York Times. Leverett
believes that the White House is politicizing the "secrets review"
process and is rewarding those who support Bush's policies and
punishing those who don't. Juan Cole places the blame on Elliott
Abrams and urges people to write Congress and ask why Elliot Abrams is
in charge of Middle East policy.

Colin Powell said yesterday the US is losing the civil war in Iraq and
he is not persuaded an increase in U.S. troops would reverse the
situation, the Washington Post reports. He called giving
responsibility for  security to the Iraqi government with a U.S.
drawdown to begin by the middle of next year. The summer's surge of
U.S. troops to stabilize Baghdad failed and any new attempt is
unlikely to succeed, and there really are no additional troops. Powell
also agreed with the Iraq Study Group's recommendation that the
administration open talks with Syria and Iran.

Incoming Senate majority leader Harry Reid said he would support a
temporary increase of forces in Iraq, if it were tied to a withdrawal
by 2008, the Washington Times reports. But when told one of the
troop-increase proposals being considered by Bush would take place
over 18 to 24 months, he said, "The American people will not allow
this war to go on as it has." Democratic Senators Kennedy and Reed
criticized the call for more troops.

The U.S. military's new counterinsurgency doctrine takes issue with
key strategies that American commanders continue to use in Iraq,
including the practice of concentrating combat forces in massive
bases, the Los Angeles Times reports. The manual warns that such
military bases could suggest "a long-term foreign occupation."

When political scientists asked volunteers, "What is the exact number
of U.S. troops you are willing to see die in Iraq?" the most common
answer was zero, the Washington Post reports. The median was 500. The
article notes that initially people were more willing to accept
casualties if they are contrasted with higher "enemy" casualties, but
that this effect loses force as it becomes obvious that "enemy"
fighters are easily replaced, a process captured by the Onion
headline, "Eighty Percent of Al-Qaeda No. 2s Now Dead."

Iraq
Iran has effectively created a Shi'ite "state within a state" in Iraq
according to a Saudi security assessment, the Washington Times
reports. The report says Iran is supporting Shi'ite militias, schools
and hospitals, and pro-Iranian politicians in an effort to counter the
remnants of Saddam's intelligence network. Isobel Coleman of the
Council for Foreign Relations cautions that the report is not unbiased
and is alarmist about Iran.

Iraq's prime minister convened leaders from various communities for a
reconciliation conference, but no one claiming to represent the Shiite
militias or the Sunni insurgents was in attendance, the New York Times
reports.

Iran
Friday's elections for in Iran the clerical Assembly of Experts and
for local councils suggested a voter shift toward more moderate
policies and away from the president's often-confrontational
positions, Reuters reports. Former president Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani was leading the count in Tehran for the Assembly of
Experts.

Iran's president said Saturday his country was ready to transfer
nuclear technology to neighboring countries, Kuwaiti TV reported. The
report said President Ahmadinejad told an adviser to Kuwait's emir,
"Iran is prepared to transfer to regional states its valuable
experience and achievements in the field of peaceful nuclear
technology."

Israel/Palestine
Armed supporters of Fatah and Hamas agreed to a cease-fire and the
withdrawal of armed men from the streets, the New York Times reports.
On Saturday President Abbas ordered early presidential and
parliamentary elections. Hamas rejected early elections as illegal,
saying they would be a blatant effort to overturn their majority, won
in free elections 11 months ago. Any election would be at least four
to six months away, and many Palestinians are hoping Hamas and Fatah
will resume negotiations on a unity government to end the political
crisis.

A group of former Israeli soldiers is raising ethical questions about
the conduct the Israeli army in the Occupied Territories, the Toronto
Star reports.

A coalition of more than 400 groups has asked President Bush not to
sign the "Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act." The act would restrict
humanitarian aid to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.

Afghanistan
Increased reliance on US/NATO air power has led to thousands of
civilian deaths in Afghanistan, undermining support for the Afghan
government and turning public opinion against NATO forces, the
Christian Science Monitor reports.

Afghans remain broadly supportive of their government and the western
forces that protect it, writes Jim Lobe for Inter Press Service,
reporting on a new poll. But that support appears to be slipping due
primarily to frustration with the slow pace of reconstruction.

Somalia
Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Jendayi Frazer says the
Council of Islamic Courts in Somalia is controlled by "al-Qaeda cell
individuals," the Washington Post reports. But the intelligence
community doesn't endorse Frazer's conclusions about the level of
al-Qaeda's control of the Courts. John Prendergast of the
International Crisis Group says tacit U.S. support for Ethiopia's
military incursion has "incalculably strengthened" the Courts' appeal
to Somali nationalism.

Cuba
A rare independent poll of Cubans by Gallup shows Cubans want more
freedom and economic opportunities and support the Castro brothers by
a seven-point margin, the Miami Herald reports.

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Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org