[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, November 10, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
November 10, 2006

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Summary:
U.S./Top News
Writing on Huffington Post, Just Foreign Policy notes that Americans
told pollsters before the election they expected a Democratic victory
to result in withdrawal from Iraq and that the U.S. should set a
timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. Now Americans may wish to consider
a deadline for Congress to establish a timetable for withdrawal;
Groundhog Day would give new Members of Congress time to get settled.

Aljazeera.com reprinted Amy Goodman's Democracy Now interview with
Global Exchange's Raed Jarrar, currently on the Just Foreign Policy
tour. Jarrar noted that the overwhelming majority of Iraqis - like the
majority of Americans - want a timetable for the withdrawal of US
troops from Iraq.

George McGovern will meet with the Congressional Progressive Caucus
next week to recommend a strategy to remove U.S. troops from Iraq by
June. If Democrats don't take steps to end the war in Iraq soon, they
won't be in power very long, McGovern told reporters. "I think the
Democratic leadership is wise enough to know that if they're going to
follow the message that election sent, they're going to have to take
steps to bring the war to a conclusion," he said.

President Jalal Talabani said Thursday that he had been assured by
Democratic congressional leaders during a recent visit to Washington
that they had no plans for a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces, AP
reports.

AP reported that prospects for extending John Bolton's job as U.N.
ambassador died Thursday as Democrats and Senator Chafee said they
would continue to oppose the nomination.

Robert Gates, President Bush's choice to become defense secretary, has
made it clear that he would seek advice from moderate Republicans who
have been largely frozen out of the White House, the New York Times
reports.

Concern about leftist victories in Latin America has prompted
President Bush to quietly grant a waiver that allows the US to resume
training militaries from 11 Latin American and Caribbean countries,
USA Today reports.

In hearings on Robert Gates' nomination as Defense Secretary, senators
may revisit allegations that he politicized intelligence on the Soviet
Union and falsely denied knowledge of the Iran-contra scandal, the New
York Times reports.

With control of every committee in Congress starting in January, the
new majority will inherit broad powers to subpoena and investigate,
the Los Angeles Times notes. That is expected to translate into
wide-ranging and contentious hearings on the Iraq war and other
issues.

The Democratic takeover of Congress will raise the profile of
lawmakers who have repeatedly urged the Bush administration to talk to
key adversaries such as Iran, North Korea and Syria, the Washington
Post reports. The incoming chairmen of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee and the House International Relations Committee - Sen. Biden
and Rep. Lantos - have long argued that the administration's approach
to dealing with adversaries has hamstrung diplomacy.

Iran
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday called U.S.
President George W. Bush's defeat in congressional elections a victory
for Iran, Reuters reports.

Israel's deputy defense minister suggested Friday that Israel might be
forced to launch a military strike against Iran's disputed nuclear
program, AP reports. The comments did not necessarily reflect the view
of Israel's government, said a government spokeswoman. Prime Minister
Olmert, Olmert, expected in Washington Sunday, said he was confident
in the U.S. handling of the international standoff over Iran's nuclear
program.

Iran will review relations with the IAEA if the Security Council
adopts a European draft resolution imposing sanctions, Tehran's
nuclear negotiator said Friday. Diplomats have said this would likely
entail curbing access of the U.N. watchdog's inspectors to Iranian
nuclear sites, but not ending it entirely, as this would harden
suspicions and alienate Russia.

Iraq
Iraq's health minister estimated Thursday that 150,000 civilians had
been killed since the U.S.-led invasion to oust dictator Saddam
Hussein in March 2003. This number is three times higher than the Iraq
Body Count figure based on Western press reports of civilian
casualties.

President Mubarak of Egypt came out strongly against hanging Saddam
Hussein, saying in remarks published Thursday that it could make Iraq
explode into more violence, AP reports.  But Iraq's prime minister
said the execution could take place by the end of the year.

Lebanon
French officials say that French peacekeeping forces in southern
Lebanon came within seconds of firing missiles at Israeli F-15 fighter
jets that repeatedly dived on their positions last week, the
Washington Post reports. The UN and France, which leads the U.N.
peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, have repeatedly protested
Israel's flights over the area, saying they are a violation of the
ceasefire.

Palestine
Hamas committed today to folding its eight-month government if that
would restore the international assistance that was cut off after it
won national elections earlier this year, the New York Times reports.
By distinguishing US and European aid to the Palestinian Authority
from Palestinian tax revenues confiscated by the Israeli government,
the article improves on past coverage of the issue by the Times.

Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Now, the Real Battle: Let's Make Groundhog Day the Deadline for
Congress to Set a Timetable for Withdrawal from Iraq
Robert Naiman, Just Foreign Policy, Friday, November 10
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-weisbrot-and-robert-naiman/now-the-real-battle-let_b_33820.html
The election defeats of Republicans on Tuesday, with Democrats taking
control of the House and Senate for the first time since 1994, have
been widely described as a referendum on the unpopular war in Iraq.
Certainly, most Americans told pollsters before the election that they
expected a Democratic victory to result in withdrawal from Iraq and
most Americans told pollsters before the election that the U.S. should
set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, 61% in a Newsweek poll.

With all the talk of putting deadlines on the Iraqi government, it's
time to put a deadline on our own government. I suggest Groundhog Day
as the deadline for Congress to set a timetable for the withdrawal of
all US troops and bases from Iraq. The new Congress convenes in
January, so this will give them some time to find their new desks. And
we don't want to become like the Bill Murray character in the movie
"Groundhog Day," who experiences the same thing day after day -
needless deaths in Iraq, in this case - even though we voted
overwhelmingly for something different. And everyone can remember
Groundhog Day - every time a local newscast does a silly puff piece on
this holiday, they'll be carrying our message: time for Congress to
set a deadline for withdrawal from Iraq.

2) U.S. midterm elections: An Iraqi perspective
Democracy Now interview with Raed Jarrar, Aljazeera.com, 11/9/2006
http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=12307
Amy Goodman: Raed Jarrar is an Iraqi architect and a blogger, does the
blog raedinthemiddle.blogspot.com, and is the Iraq Project Director
for Global Exchange. Your response to the Democratic sweep of the
House?

Raed Jarrar: It doesn't seem that there is a departure from the
parameters set by Republicans, in fact. It doesn't seem that there is
any plans to include Iraqi voices and consult with Iraqis to take
further steps. It just seems that there are some more unilateral plans
that will be taken from the U.S. side, for changing the course. And
changing the course may be to a worse or better direction; no one can
tell until now.

Goodman: What do you think should happen?

Jarrar: What I think should happen is that Iraq's unity should be
kept, and this is one of the most controversial issues and an issue
that is causing anxiety for Iraqi leaders, because there are a lot of
Democrats who are asking to divide the country to more than one place.
And what I think should happen is that Iraqi voices - between 70% and
90% of Iraqis are demanding to set a timetable for a complete
withdrawal of the troops. And even a majority within the Iraqi
government that was elected under the occupation is demanding to set
such a timetable. So these voices should be brought to the table and
discussed with, and a timetable for ending the occupation should be
set with Iraqis, and other steps for fixing the mistakes they've
committed in Iraq.

Goodman: Raed Jarrar, you've taken on a new job - we just have ten
seconds - where you're going to be talking about U.S. foreign policy,
traveling around this country.

Jarrar: Yeah, I'm going on a tour with an organization called Just
Foreign Policy. You can check their website, justforeignpolicy.org.
We're going on a 16-city tour around the Northeast.

Goodman: I want to thank you very much for being with us, Raed Jarrar,
Iraqi architect and blogger, now with the group Just Foreign Policy.

[Note: Raed is still with Global Exchange. We have not "raided" him,
we are just borrowing him. - JFP]

3) McGovern to Meet With Congress on War
Associated Press, November 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-McGovern-Speech.html
George McGovern, the former senator and Democratic presidential
candidate, said Thursday that he will meet with more than 60 members
of Congress next week to recommend a strategy to remove U.S. troops
from Iraq by June.

If Democrats don't take steps to end the war in Iraq soon, they won't
be in power very long, McGovern told reporters. "I think the
Democratic leadership is wise enough to know that if they're going to
follow the message that election sent, they're going to have to take
steps to bring the war to a conclusion," he said.

McGovern will present his recommendations before the Congressional
Progressive Caucus, a 62-member group led by Reps. Lynn Woolsey and
Barbara Lee. "The best way to reduce this insurgency is to get the
American forces out of there," McGovern said. "That's what's driving
this insurgency." McGovern told the audience Thursday that the Iraq
and Vietnam wars were equally "foolish enterprises" and that the
current threat of terrorism developed because - not before - the US
went into Iraq.

McGovern's plan - as written in his new book, "Out of Iraq: A
Practical Plan for Withdrawal Now" - also calls for the US to remove
hired mercenaries from the region, push for the removal of British
troops and establish a temporary transitional force, similar to
police, made up of Muslims from the region. "I've talked with a lot of
senior officers - generals and admirals - in preparation for this
book, that say this war can't be won, that the problems now are not
military problems," McGovern told reporters. "There isn't going to be
any decisive victory in Iraq."

"Never let the new class of Democrats forget that they're there in
considerable part because of the war the American public has now
turned against," McGovern said. "That's going to have to be something
that they have to explore with Republicans and with the White House."

4) Iraq President Says Democrats Reassuring
Associated Press, November 9, 2006, Filed at 9:12 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iraq-President.html
President Jalal Talabani said Thursday that he had been assured by
Democrat congressional leaders during a recent visit to Washington
that they had no plans for a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces. Talabani
said Democrats also backed the idea of placing U.S. troops in bases
while putting Iraqis in charge of security in and around cities.

"They all told me that they want the success of Iraq's democratically
elected government and continued support for the Iraqi people to
defeat terrorism," Talabani said about his trip to the US in late
September as many were predicting the Democratic congressional triumph
in Tuesday's midterm elections. "One of them (a Democrat leader) told
me that any early withdrawal will be a catastrophe for the US and the
world," Talabani, speaking from his northern hometown of Sulaimaniyah,
told the Dubai-based Al-Jazeera satellite broadcaster.

The "Americans made big mistakes in Iraq," he said, including the
rejection of its leaders hopes to form an interim Iraqi government
immediately after the March 2003 invasion rather than occupying the
country for more than a year.

5) From Lame Duck to Dead Duck: Bolton Goes Down
Robert Naiman, Just Foreign Policy, Public Citizen's "Lame Duck Hunt,"
November 9
http://citizen.typepad.com/lameduckhunt/2006/11/from_lame_duck_.html
AP reported that "Prospects for extending John Bolton's job as U.N.
ambassador essentially died Thursday as Democrats and a pivotal
Republican said they would continue to oppose the nomination." On
Thursday the White House resubmitted Bolton's nomination to the
Senate. Bush appointed him in August 2005 while Congress was in
recess, an appointment that will expire in January.

The pivotal Republican, of course, was Lincoln Chafee, who was
defeated Tuesday. Chafee told reporters Thursday he would continue
opposing Bolton. That would deny Republicans the votes they would need
to move Bolton's nomination from the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee to the full Senate.

6) After Rumsfeld: Bid To Reshape The Brain Trust
David E. Sanger, New York Times, November 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/10/world/middleeast/10policy.html
Robert Gates, President Bush's choice to become defense secretary, has
sharply criticized the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq war
and has made it clear that he would seek advice from moderate
Republicans who have been largely frozen out of the White House,
according to administration officials and Gates's close associates.

The administration officials said that Bush was aware of Gates's
critique of current policy and understood that Gates planned to clear
the "E Ring" of the Pentagon, where many of Secretary Rumsfeld's
senior political appointees have plotted Iraq strategy. Stephen
Hadley, the national security adviser, said Thursday Bush regarded his
choice of Gates as "a terrific opportunity" to rethink Iraq.

Gates will be drawing on his experience and contacts from the
administration of Bush's father, including the former security adviser
Brent Scowcroft and former Secretary of State James Baker. "Gates's
world is Brent Scowcroft and Baker and a whole bunch of people who
felt the door had been slammed in their face," one former official who
has discussed Iraq at length with Gates said Thursday. "The door is
about to reopen."

A close friend of Gates's described him as having been "clearly
distraught over the incompetence of how the Iraq operation had been
run." The friend said Gates had returned from a recent visit to
Baghdad expressing disbelief that Rumsfeld, whom Bush ousted
Wednesday, had not responded more quickly to the rapid deterioration
of security and that the president had not acted sooner to overhaul
the management of the war.

7) U.S. to lift ban on Latin American military training
http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2006/11/us_to_lift_ban_.html
"Concern about leftist victories in Latin America has prompted
President Bush to quietly grant a waiver that allows the US to resume
training militaries from 11 Latin American and Caribbean countries,"
USA TODAY's Barbara Slavin reports today. "The administration hopes
the training will forge links with countries in the region and blunt a
leftward trend." The training ban, "originally designed to pressure
countries into exempting U.S. soldiers from war crimes trials," has
caused the US to lose influence in the region, military officials tell
Slavin.

Public reaction appears limited so far. The School of the Americas
Watch, which monitors and protests the U.S. military programs that
have controversially trained Latin American military groups for
decades, plans a large demonstration this month to protest the change
and call for an end to the training.
The School of the Americas gained notoriety after the Pentagon's 1996
revelation that manuals used there "advocated executions, torture,
blackmail and other forms of coercion against insurgents," as The
Washington Post put it. A number of its graduates have also been
accused of human rights abuses.

A public forum this month covered by the Associated Press and others
shows the debate around the issues here remain alive and well. What do
you think of the return to training? Will it help American influence
in Latin America, or does more involvement mean more trouble?

8) Gates Hearing In Senate May Have Echoes Of 1991
Scott Shane, New York Times, November 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/10/washington/10gates.html
The accusations lodged against Robert M. Gates the last time he came
before the Senate for confirmation, in 1991, sound eerily contemporary
in the wake of the debate over skewed prewar intelligence on Iraq.
Gates, in the words of one CIA subordinate, Jennifer Glaudemans,
"politicized intelligence analysis," insisting on slanted reports that
became the basis for "momentous foreign policy decisions."

The Senate will have to decide whether such claims, which did not
prevent the C.I.A. veteran from becoming the agency's director 15
years ago, have new relevance now that President Bush has named him to
succeed Rumsfeld as defense secretary. Senators may revisit assertions
that Gates falsely denied knowledge of the Reagan administration's
secret scheme to sell arms to Iran and use the proceeds to support the
Nicaraguan contra rebels, an issue that derailed his first nomination
to lead the C.I.A. in 1987.

9) Democrats are set to subpoena
The new majority is expected to hold hearings on military spending and
the Iraq war - just for starters.
Richard B. Schmitt & Richard Simon, Los Angeles Times, November 10, 2006
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-investigations10nov10,0,5223734,print.story
Rep. Ike Skelton knows what he will do in one of his first acts as
chairman of the Armed Services Committee in the Democratic-led House:
resurrect the subcommittee on oversight and investigations. The panel
was disbanded by the Republicans after they won control of Congress in
1994. Now, Skelton intends to use it as a forum to probe Pentagon
spending and the Bush administration's conduct of the Iraq war.

It has been 12 years since Democrats were in control of both the House
and Senate. But they are looking to make up for lost time, and in some
cases, make the Bush administration and its business allies sweat.
With control of every committee in Congress starting in January, the
new majority will inherit broad powers to subpoena and investigate.
And that is expected to translate into wide-ranging and contentious
hearings.

10) Democrats May Urge More Contact With U.S. Adversaries
Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Friday, November 10, 2006; A07
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110901871.html
The Democratic takeover of Congress will raise the profile of
lawmakers who have repeatedly urged the Bush administration to talk to
key adversaries such as Iran, North Korea and Syria, increasing
pressure on the White House to stop placing restrictions or conditions
on such discussions.

The incoming chairmen of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and
the House International Relations Committee - Sen. Biden and Rep.
Lantos - have long argued that the administration's approach to
dealing with adversaries has hamstrung diplomacy. Iran and Syria are
problematic neighbors of Iraq, and critics have charged that not
talking to Damascus and Tehran has hurt efforts to end the violence in
Iraq.

Although outgoing Senate Foreign Relations Chair Lugar is also an
advocate of greater engagement, the new Democratic leaders say they
are more likely to call hearings and demand explanations from
administration officials. Lantos, who has often visited such countries
as Libya and North Korea, said he is "passionately committed to having
a dialogue with people we disagree with."

Since Secretary of State Rice took office nearly two years ago, some
restrictions on dealing with Iran and North Korea have been loosened.
On North Korea, the administration has rejected calls for high-level
bilateral contacts but allows them within a six-nation negotiations
focusing on North Korea's nuclear programs. On Iran, the
administration this year offered to join multilateral talks on Iran's
nuclear program - but only if Tehran first suspends uranium
enrichment.

The Iraq Study Group, headed by former secretary of state Baker and
former representative Hamilton, is also expected to address the issue
of whether dialogue with Iran and Syria would aid the war effort.
President Bush and Democratic lawmakers have said they are eagerly
awaiting the study group's conclusions.

The nomination of Robert Gates as defense secretary could also change
the dynamics of the administration's internal debates. Outgoing
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld is a fierce foe of engaging with
enemies, but Gates two years ago co-wrote a Council on Foreign
Relations report that called for a "direct dialogue" with Iran.

"The current lack of sustained engagement with Iran harms U.S.
interests in a critical region," the report said, arguing the US
should explore "common interests" with Iran as it did with the Soviet
Union or China when they were U.S. adversaries. The report suggested
that lifting unilateral sanctions and allowing U.S.-Iranian commercial
relations to flourish "could be a powerful tool" in dealing with Iran.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to President Jimmy
Carter and co-author of the report, said he hopes Gates's presence at
Bush administration policy debates will bring a "a degree of
rationality, common sense, balance and historical perspective" to the
table.

Brzezinski said the administration's requirement that Iran give up
enrichment before talks can start is not a "fair bargain" because Iran
has a right to enrich under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and
thus would be reluctant to give it up for simply talking. He said
lifting trade embargoes or dismantling sanctions would be a greater
inducement to start a productive dialogue with Iran on a range of
issues.

Iran
11) Khamenei Calls Elections a Victory for Iran
Reuters, November 10, 2006, Filed at 9:01 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-usa-elections-iran.html
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday called U.S.
President George W. Bush's defeat in congressional elections a victory
for Iran. Bush has accused Iran of trying to make a nuclear bomb,
being a state sponsor of terrorism and stoking sectarian conflict in
Iraq, all charges Tehran denies.

"This issue (the elections) is not a purely domestic issue for
America, but it is the defeat of Bush's hawkish policies in the
world," Khamenei said in remarks reported by Iran's student news
agency ISNA on Friday. "Since Washington's hostile and hawkish
policies have always been against the Iranian nation, this defeat is
actually an obvious victory for the Iranian nation."

Khamenei, a senior cleric in power since 1989, has the last word on
matters of state in Iran's complex system of Islamic rule, while the
government, under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in charge of
day-to-day decision making.

12) Israel Official: Strike on Iran Possible
November 10, 2006, Associated Press, Filed at 12:17 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Israel-Iran-Nuclear.html
The deputy defense minister suggested Friday that Israel might be
forced to launch a military strike against Iran's disputed nuclear
program -- the clearest statement yet of such a possibility from a
high-ranking official. "I am not advocating an Israeli pre-emptive
military action against Iran and I am aware of its possible
repercussions," Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh, a former
general, said in comments published Friday in The Jerusalem Post. "I
consider it a last resort. But even the last resort is sometimes the
only resort."

Sneh's comments did not necessarily reflect the view of Israel's
government or of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, said government
spokeswoman Miri Eisin. Olmert, who was arriving in Washington on
Sunday, said he was confident in the U.S. handling of the
international standoff over Iran's nuclear program. The Bush
administration and other nations say is a cover for developing atomic
weapons, but Tehran says the program is peaceful.

13) Iran Could Review IAEA Ties Over UN Draft: Larijani
Reuters, November 10, 2006, Filed at 11:50 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran.html
Iran will review relations with the International Atomic Energy Agency
if the U.N. Security Council adopts a European draft resolution
imposing sanctions, Tehran's nuclear negotiator said on Friday. While
nuclear envoy Ali Larijani met senior Russian officials in Moscow,
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in Tehran that Iran's
enemies could not do a thing to stop its nuclear fuel program.

The EU draft resolution demands nations prevent the sale and supply of
equipment, technology and financing contributing to Iran's nuclear and
ballistic missile programs. Drawn up by Britain, France and Germany,
the draft would also ban travel and freeze foreign assets of people
and entities involved in the two programs. Russia has proposed
sweeping deletions, including the travel and assets provisions. It
says such changes would avoid isolating Iran and encourage it to
negotiate seriously.

"We will review our relations with the IAEA if the U.N. accepts the
Euro-troika resolution without taking into account the amendments made
by Russia," Larijani was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency.
Larijani did not specify what the "review" could mean.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to reassess ties with the IAEA if faced
with sanctions and diplomats have said this would likely entail
curbing access of the U.N. watchdog's inspectors to Iranian nuclear
sites, but not ending it entirely. Last summer, Iran temporarily
denied visas to some inspectors and curtailed the frequency of visits
to atomic sites by inspectors already in the country to convey its
anger with big power pressure on it to stop enriching uranium.

Diplomats said Iran would be unlikely to ban all IAEA activity in
response to the relatively mild initial sanctions now being considered
as this would harden suspicions it seeks atom bombs and alienate trade
partners, including Russia.

Larijani said later, after meeting Russian Security Council head Igor
Ivanov, that the sanctions deliberations by EU powers, the US, Russia
and China were counterproductive."We adhere to the nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty. If there are any disagreements, we are ready
to solve them through talks. Those insisting on adopting the
resolution deliberately seek to make the situation worse," he said in
a statement. "Nuclear weapons have no role in Iran's military
doctrine."

Russia is under U.S. pressure to agree to tougher wording on
sanctions. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday Moscow
would accept limited U.N. actions against Iran if they had a defined
time frame and there was an agreed mechanism for lifting them.

Iraq
14) Iraq Official Estimates Civilian Toll At 150,000
Associated Press, November 10, 2006
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-civilians10nov10,1,3364527.story
Iraq's health minister estimated Thursday that 150,000 civilians had
been killed since the U.S.-led invasion to oust dictator Saddam
Hussein in March 2003. No official count of the deaths has been
available, and estimates have varied widely. The number is three times
as high as a Times estimate in June that was based on Health Ministry
and Baghdad morgue statistics.

The Lancet, a British medical journal, last month published a
controversial study contending that nearly 655,000 Iraqis have died
because of the war. The study, dismissed by President Bush and other
U.S. officials as not credible, was based on interviews of households
and not a body count.

Health Minister Ali Shammari, who gave his new estimate of 150,000 to
reporters Thursday during a visit to Vienna, also disputed the Lancet
figure. "Some people say … 600,000 are killed. This is an exaggerated
number," he said. Shammari later said he had based his figure on an
estimated average of 100 bodies per day taken to morgues and hospitals
— though such a calculation would come out closer to 133,000. "It is
an estimate," he said.

Hassan Salem of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or
SCIRI, said the 150,000 figure included civilians, police and
kidnapping victims. SCIRI, Iraq's largest Shiite political group,
holds the highest number of seats in the parliament.

15) Mubarak Warns Against Hanging Saddam
Associated Press, November 10, 2006, Filed at 5:14 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Saddam-Death-Sentence.html
Egypt's president came out strongly against hanging Saddam Hussein,
saying in remarks published Thursday that it could make Iraq explode
into more violence. But Iraq's prime minister said the execution could
take place by the end of the year. The statement from President Hosni
Mubarak of Eygpt broke an uneasy silence among Arab leaders over
Sunday's verdict by an Iraqi court, which convicted Saddam for the
killings of some 150 Shiite Muslims after an assassination attempt
against him in 1982.

Mubarak, a regional heavyweight and a top U.S. ally, appeared to speak
for many in the region who are uneasy about seeing a former Arab
president tried and sentenced -- no matter how much they disliked
Saddam's regime. Analysts suggested Arab leaders are worried about the
precedent an execution would set, and said Arab publics often identify
with their leaders. "Carrying out this verdict will explode violence
like waterfalls in Iraq," Mubarak was quoted as saying by state-run
Egyptian newspapers. Hanging Saddam "will transform (Iraq) into blood
pools and lead to a deepening of the sectarian and ethnic conflicts."

Lebanon
16) French Forces Almost Fired On Israeli Jets
F-15s Dived on Peacekeepers In Lebanon, Defense Official Says Molly
Moore, Washington Post, Friday, November 10, 2006; A22
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110901886.html
French peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon came within seconds of
firing missiles at Israeli F-15 fighter jets that repeatedly dived on
their positions last week, according to French Defense Minister
Michele Alliot-Marie. Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy summoned
Israel's ambassador to Paris to his office on Thursday to express
"serious concern" about the incident and demand that Israel halt its
flights over southern Lebanon.

"Our troops barely avoided a catastrophe," Alliot-Marie told the lower
house of France's Parliament on Wednesday night in remarks broadcast
Thursday. "In legitimate defense, our soldiers removed the covers from
the missile battery and were two seconds away from firing at the
planes that were threatening them." A spokesman for the Israeli
Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv said reports of the Oct. 31 incident were
under investigation.

The UN and France, which leads the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern
Lebanon, have repeatedly protested Israel's flights over the area,
saying they are a violation of the cease-fire that ended this summer's
33-day war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas.

Israeli officials say the flights are needed to monitor Lebanon's
compliance with U.N. mandates that it prevent the smuggling of weapons
to Hezbollah. But U.N. peacekeepers reported 14 violations by Israeli
aircraft last week during mock raids, including three over the
headquarters of French troops in the southern Lebanese town of Froun.

French officials said the warplanes dived toward the ground, then
jerked skyward in maneuvers that could be used to drop bombs or fire
on ground forces. The planes were "clearly in attack position," the
French defense minister said.

The French complaints follow allegations that Israeli fighters fired
over a German warship off the Lebanese coast, which Israel denied, and
a report of a non-hostile encounter between Israeli F-16 fighters and
a German helicopter.

Palestine
17) Hamas Offers to End Rule if Aid Resumes
Ian Fisher, New York Times, November 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/10/world/middleeast/11mideastcnd.html
Hamas committed today to folding its eight-month government if that
would restore the international assistance that was cut off after it
won national elections earlier this year. In a shrewd and dramatic
speech, the Hamas prime minister, Ismail Haniyah, said he would likely
resign in the next "two or three weeks" to make way for a national
unity government more acceptable to international donors than Hamas,
the organization responsible for the deadliest attacks against Israel.

It was a public acknowledgment that Hamas had failed to run the
Palestinian Authority on its own terms in the face of an American and
Israeli-led cutoff of funds and aid, and that Haniya and his
government would soon be replaced by a "unity" government of
technocrats, currently being negotiated with Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas.

Hamas refused to meet the three conditions set out by the
international community: to recognize the right of Israel to exist, to
forswear violence and to accept previous Palestinian-Israeli
agreements that imply a two-state solution. In turn, Israel withheld
more than $50 million a month in taxes and customs collected for the
Palestinians and the US and Europe cut off direct aid to the
Palestinian Authority. [Just Foreign Policy has previously taken the
Times to task for not reporting this correctly. By distinguishing the
Palestinian tax revenue confiscated by Israel from US and European
aid, this paragraph is a significant improvement on earlier reporting.
-JFP]

The efforts of Hamas to bring in sufficient money from Arab
supporters, especially given the reluctance of banks to challenge the
Americans, have not been sufficient to pay salaries to thousands of
employees dependent on the Palestinian Authority. Haniyah's public
confirmation was not a complete surprise to his listeners, but it
marked a symbolic public moment here: an acknowledgment of the
difficulties Hamas faced, internally and with the outside world, as it
tried to move from fighting to governing.

Much as the speech roused cheers at the mosque, and praise here for
its apparent sacrifice, it was unclear whether Haniyah's stated
intentions could restart the flow of aid as Palestinians.

On one hand, Haniyah suggested that any new government of national
unity would be able to satisfy the demands of Israel and other donors,
which include recognizing Israel's right exist. At the same time,
Haniyah said that Hamas would remain a key player that would never
waver from principle. This raises the question of whether a new
government would be any more palatable to donors than the current one.

Hamas has refused to recognize Israel's right to exist, for example,
but it is unclear that any new government, many of whose key officials
will be appointed by Hamas, will do so either, at least in any
explicit way. At a minimum, the speech seemed to burnish Hamas's
populist credentials at a time when its support has been shrinking
amid the economic hardship and still-high bloodshed, underscored by
the deaths of 19 people here on Wednesday from an apparently errant
Israeli artillery barrage. (Eighteen were killed in the initial
incident; another died of his injuries Friday.)

For months, Hamas has been in negotiations with Fatah, the party led
by Abbas, to form a national unity government of professionals and
technocrats not immediately beholden to any party. In recent days,
those talks seem to have picked up steam, and Haniyah's announcement
seemed a firm sign of hope that they may succeed. Haniyah said he
expected more talks next week and that "within two or three weeks, we
will announce joyful news."

In theory, such a government would be able to win back international
aid that paid about half of the $165 million the Palestinian Authority
needs every month to pay salaries and operating expenses, with the
money the Israelis collect on behalf of the Palestinians making up a
part of the remainder. Even so, the Palestinian government was running
a deficit.

But theory aside, the three conditions cause distinct problems for
Hamas, and experts disagree over whether the group can, in the end,
stay true to its declared objective of creating a state including all
of historical Palestine (including Israel) and also satisfy donors.
Hamas offers a long-term truce with an Israel in its pre-1967 borders,
but has not repudiated its longer-term objectives.

Israeli officials have said they would not hand over the money they
collect to a Palestinian government, led by anyone, that merely fudges
the conditions. "Any Palestinian government has to meet these three
conditions — it doesn't matter who is in it, what their names are,"
Tzipi Livni, the Israeli foreign minister, said in an interview with
the Jerusalem Post published today.

Even with a new government, it seems clear that Hamas intends to
remain the driving political force: It holds a majority in the
parliament, and its reported candidates to replace Haniyah all have
deep connections to Hamas. Reportedly the choice of Haniyah's
successor is a major block holding up a final deal on a new
government.

Mustafah Sawwaf, a Palestinian journalist and analyst deeply familiar
with Hamas, said that the intention to remain the principal player
means that Hamas can never accept the three conditions for restarting
aid. "As long as Hamas is in control, it will not," he said.

But another political expert, Khaled Abdel Shafi, said that, given the
economic problems and worries about more bloodshed, Hamas would likely
have no choice but to find a way to accede to the conditions. "The
people are tired of the current situation," he said. "They are very
worried." He said he believed most Hamas supporters could accept the
conditions for resumed aid, if not directly from the mouths of Hamas
leaders and if, in fact, the money resumed. "It's only the hard-core
of Hamas, which is not that significant in terms of numbers, which is
worried about the recognition of Israel," he said.

-
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

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