[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, November 15, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
November 15, 2006

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Summary:
U.S./Top News
Americans do not support an unprovoked attack on Iran, writes Just
Foreign Policy on Common Dreams.  In October, Newsweek found 54
percent of Americans opposed to air strikes and 76 percent against a
land invasion. But our dealings with Iran continue to resemble the
run-up to war in Iraq: unsubstantiated allegations of WMD programs; a
refusal to talk to Iran; a policy of regime change.

A case of "Iraq syndrome" would serve us well in our dealings with
Iran, writes Just Foreign Policy on Huffington Post.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says President Bush still doesn't
get the need to change course in Iraq, the Washington Post reports.
Reid vowed to press quickly for phased troop withdrawals, using
hearings and public pressure but not the power of the purse.

President Bush launched an internal review of Iraq policy, the
Washington Post reports. The White House wants to complete the process
before mid-December, about the time the Iraq Study Group's final
report is expected.

The argument of many Democrats that a phased withdrawal will galvanize
the Iraqi government to assume more responsibility is being challenged
by military officers, experts and former generals who have been
vehement critics of the Bush administration's Iraq policies, the New
York Times reports. Some are arguing for more US troops to be deployed
in Iraq rather than fewer.

In a study billed as the "first systematic mapping" of an ideology
sometimes called jihadism, the Combating Terrorism Center at West
Point has found that bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, have
had a relatively minor influence on the movement's intellectual
foundation, the New York Times reports. Among the network's
ideologists, they have come to be seen more as propagandists than
strategic thinkers.

Tom Lantos, the ranking Democrat on the House International Relations
Committee is expected to chair the committee in the next Congress,
notes the Institute for Public Accuracy in a press release.  His
foreign-policy views are widely deplored by antiwar analysts.

Many who voted for Democrats may have difficulty accepting that
immediate withdrawal from Iraq is the least bad option, Walden Bello
writes for Foreign Policy in Focus. Without more sustained pressure,
Democrats will likely compromise with Bush, which means another
unworkable policy.

Iran
President Bush will not hesitate to use military force against Iran if
other options fail, Israel's outgoing ambassador to the United States
said in an interview published Wednesday.

Congressional leaders requested an intelligence assessment of India's
nuclear program and its government's ties to Iran in January amid
concerns about a White House effort to provide nuclear technology to
India. Ten months later, as the Senate prepares to vote on nuclear
trade with India, the intelligence assessment has yet to be seen on
Capitol Hill, the Washington Post reports.

After 9/11, Iran helped the US extensively in Afghanistan to overthrow
the Taliban and establish a new government. It anticipated better
relations in exchange for its assistance. But it was soon dubbed a
member of the "Axis of Evil" by President Bush, the Christian Science
Monitor reports. This led Iran to conclude the Bush Administration was
intent on overthrowing their regime no matter what. Iran still has
reasons to engage, but the price tag may now be higher.

Iran, Syria, Libya, Egypt and Hezbollah are providing arms, training
and financing to Islamic militants in Somalia according to a
confidential U.N. document, the Washington Post reports. Iran and
Syria denied they had shipped weapons to Somalia or trained Somali
forces.

Iraq
A U.S. airstrike in Ramadi killed at least 30 people, including women
and children, according to witnesses, the Los Angeles Times reports.

The Democrats' election victory will make things easier for Iraqis,
the Iraqi health minister told Der Spiegel.

Pakistan
The Pakistani government pushed legislation through Parliament that
would amend the country's rape laws, the New York Times reports.
Supporters of the changes say they will make it easier to prove
charges of rape and reduce fears of retribution against accusers.

Lebanon
Half of the Lebanese public said their opinion of the US was much
worse following this summer's invasion by the US-supplied Israeli
military, AP reports.

Essential Medicines
Oxfam says the US and the EU have broken promises they made to stop
blocking developing countries from obtaining affordable medicines, the
Guardian reports.

Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) This Election Did Not End Saber-Rattling against Iran, Yet
Patrick McElwee, Common Dreams, November 15, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/1115-34.htm
Americans do not support an unprovoked attack on Iran. In late
October, Newsweek found that 54 percent of Americans are opposed to
air strikes (38 percent in favor) and 76 percent are against a land
invasion (with only 18 percent supporting). But dealings with Iran
continue to resemble the run-up to war in Iraq. Unsubstantiated
allegations of WMD programs. Referral to the UN Security Council and
demands that it act. A refusal to talk to Iran. A policy of regime
change.

2) Are You Suffering from "Iraq Syndrome"? If Not, Why Not?
Robert Naiman, Just Foreign Policy, November 14, 2006
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-weisbrot-and-robert-naiman/are-you-suffering-from-i_b_34131.html

Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, raises
the specter of "Iraq Syndrome" in an interview with Der Spiegel. "The
danger," he says, "is that the United States now will be weary[sic] of
intervening elsewhere, like the cat that once sat on a hot stove and
will never sit on any stove again." Why should the poor cat be
disparaged for prudently avoiding stoves? Is there any reason that
cats need to sit on stoves? Why should the American people be
disparaged for being wary of "intervening" in (that is, invading)
other people's countries? Is there any reason that we need to go
around invading and occupying other people's countries? Let's try to
make sure that we never have to get "Iran Syndrome."

3) Reid Pledges To Press Bush On Iraq Policy
Senator Is Elected Majority Leader
Jonathan Weisman, Washington Post, Wednesday, November 15, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/14/AR2006111400637.html
Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who was elected Senate majority leader yesterday,
said last night that President Bush still has not grasped the urgent
need to change course in Iraq. Reid vowed to press quickly for phased
troop withdrawals, a more international approach to Iraq's problems
and a rebuilding of the depleted U.S. military.

Voter anger over the war swept his party to power with the unlikely
defeat of six Republican senators, he said. Democrats must respond to
that anger, he added, with hearings to keep the heat on the Bush
administration, and with calls for a regional Middle Eastern
conference and a revitalized Iraqi reconstruction effort.

Democrats will not try, Reid pledged, to play the strongest hand they
have -- using Congress's power of the purse to starve the war effort
of money and force the president to move. Such an effort would only
elicit a veto from Bush. But he said Democrats will marshal their
newly acquired power -- in hearing rooms and on the Senate floor -- to
stoke public opinion and drive the debate.

4) Bush Initiates Iraq Policy Review Separate From Baker Group's
Robin Wright, Washington Post, Wednesday, November 15, 2006; A16
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/14/AR2006111401095.html
President Bush formally launched a sweeping internal review of Iraq
policy yesterday, pulling together studies underway by various
government agencies, according to U.S. officials.

The initiative, begun after Bush met at the White House with his
foreign policy team, parallels the effort by the bipartisan Iraq Study
Group to salvage U.S. policy in Iraq, develop an exit strategy and
protect long-term U.S. interests in the region. The two reviews are
not competitive, administration officials said, although the White
House wants to complete the process before mid-December, about the
time the Iraq Study Group's final report is expected.

The White House's decision changes the dynamics of what happens next
to U.S. policy deliberations. The administration will have its own
working document as well as recommendations from an independent
bipartisan commission to consider as it struggles to prevent further
deterioration in Iraq.

5) Get Out Now? Not So Fast, Experts Say
Michael R. Gordon, New York Times, November 15, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/15/washington/15military.html
One of the most resonant arguments in the debate over Iraq holds that
the United States can move forward by pulling its troops back, as part
of a phased withdrawal. If American troops begin to leave and the
remaining forces assume a more limited role, the argument holds, it
will galvanize the Iraqi government to assume more responsibility for
securing and rebuilding Iraq.

This is the case now being argued by many Democrats, most notably
Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, the incoming chairman of the Senate
Armed Services Committee, who asserts that the withdrawal of American
troops from Iraq should begin within four to six months.

But this argument is being challenged by a number of military
officers, experts and former generals, including some who have been
among the most vehement critics of the Bush administration's Iraq
policies.

Anthony C. Zinni, the former head of the United States Central Command
and one of the retired generals who called for the resignation of
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, argued that any substantial
reduction of American forces over the next several months would be
more likely to accelerate the slide to civil war than stop it.

"The logic of this is you put pressure on Maliki and force him to
stand up to this," General Zinni said in an interview, referring to
Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister. "Well, you can't put
pressure on a wounded guy. There is a premise that the Iraqis are not
doing enough now, that there is a capability that they have not
employed or used. I am not so sure they are capable of stopping
sectarian violence."

Instead of taking troops out, General Zinni said, it would make more
sense to consider deploying additional American forces over the next
six months to "regain momentum" as part of a broader effort to
stabilize Iraq that would create more jobs, foster political
reconciliation and develop more effective Iraqi security forces.

6) Qaeda Leaders Losing Sway Over Militants, Study Finds
Mark Mazzetti, New York Times, November 15, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/15/washington/15terror.html
As radical Islam spreads globally through online forums and chat
rooms, a group of obscure Arab religious thinkers may come to exert
more influence over the jihadist movement than Osama bin Laden and
other well-known leaders of Al Qaeda, a research group at the United
States Military Academy has concluded.

In a study billed as the "first systematic mapping" of an ideology
sometimes called jihadism, the Combating Terrorism Center at West
Point has found that Mr. bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri,
have had a relatively minor influence on the movement's intellectual
foundation. Among the network's ideologists, they have come to be seen
more as propagandists than strategic thinkers.

And while the two Qaeda leaders have released a flurry of video and
audio messages to their followers over the past year, the study found
that the scholarly work of a group of Saudi and Jordanian clerics —
most notably Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, a Jordanian — seems more likely
to influence the next generation of Islamic militants.

As a result, the authors found, the death or capture of Mr. bin Laden
and Mr. Zawahri would do little to slow the spread of jihadist
ideology.

8) Hawk Slated to Chair International Relations
Institute for Public Accuracy, November 14, 2006
http://www.accuracy.org/newsrelease.php?articleId=1392
Tom Lantos (D-Calif.) is the ranking Democrat on the House
International Relations Committee and is reportedly slated to chair
the committee in the next Congress. His foreign-policy views are
widely deplored by antiwar analysts.

9) Iraq After November 7
Walden Bello, Foreign Policy in Focus, November 13, 2006
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3706
With all their inchoate feelings about wasted American lives, "our
responsibility to Iraqis," or being seen as "cutting and running,"
many of those who voted for the Democrats may have some difficulty
accepting the reality that immediate withdrawal is the least worst of
all the options. But that is the function of leaders: to articulate
the bitter truth when the times demand it. It is not likely that most
Democratic politicians will embrace immediate withdrawal of their own
accord. Without more sustained pressure, the likely course they will
take is to come with a plan that will compromise with Bush, which
means another unworkable patchwork of a plan.

Iran
10) Bush Doesn't Fear Attack on Iran: Israeli Envoy
Reuters, November 15, 2006, Filed at 3:43 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mideast-israel-iran.html
President Bush will not hesitate to use military force against Iran if
other options fail, Israel's outgoing ambassador to the United States
said in an interview published on Wednesday. "I know President Bush
well ... From his standpoint, a nuclear Iran, ayatollahs with a bomb,
is unacceptable," Danny Ayalon told Israel's Ma'ariv newspaper. "I
have been privileged to know him well, he will not hesitate to go all
the way if there is no choice."

11) Lawmakers Concerned About U.S.-India Nuclear Trade Deal
White House Hasn't Provided Long-Awaited Intelligence Assessment and
Other Key Information
Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Wednesday, November 15, 2006; A14
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/14/AR2006111401208.html
Congressional leaders requested a secret intelligence assessment of
India's nuclear program and its government's ties to Iran in January
amid concerns about a White House effort to provide nuclear technology
to New Delhi. Ten months later, as the Senate prepares to vote on
nuclear trade with India, the intelligence assessment has yet to be
seen on Capitol Hill, congressional and intelligence sources say.

12) Can Iran Help Stabilize Iraq?
Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor, November 15, 2006
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1115/p01s04-wome.html
Iran has been here before, called upon by arch-foe America to assist
in a neighborhood security problem. After 9/11, Iran helped the US
extensively in Afghanistan to overthrow the Taliban and establish a
new government. It anticipated better relations in exchange for its
assistance. But it was soon dubbed a member of the "Axis of Evil" by
President Bush in his 2002 State of the Union address.

The outcome of that flicker of cooperation may increase Iran's
wariness if it yet again receives a request from the US for help, this
time in Iraq. "This led the Iranians to conclude the US was intent on
overthrowing their regime, and would not be affected by cooperative
behavior," says Barnett Rubin, of New York University.

Bringing Iran - and Syria - into a regional process to stabilize Iraq
is being touted both by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and the Iraq
Study Group, the US commission studying options that both Republicans
and Democrats hope will provide a framework for facesaving change in
Iraq.

But the calculus has changed since the 2003 Iraq invasion. As the US
has become more mired in the war, Iran has gained confidence that it
was unlikely to face US-engineered "regime change." Iran still has
numerous reasons to engage, but the price-tag may be higher.

13) U.N. Report Cites Outside Military Aid To Somalia's Islamic Forces
Colum Lynch, Washington Post, Wednesday, November 15, 2006; A13
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/14/AR2006111401320.html
Iran, Syria, Libya, Egypt and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon are
providing arms, training and financing to Islamic militants as they
seize political and military control in the East African state of
Somalia, according to a confidential U.N. report.

Iran and Syria denied in separate letters to the U.N. team that they
had shipped weapons to Somalia or trained Somali forces.
Representatives from the Islamic Courts Union said the allegations
that they had received illegal arms shipments are "baseless."

Iraq
14) Iraqi Residents Say U.S. Airstrike Kills 30
Victims include women and children, witnesses in Ramadi say. The
military has no immediate comment.
Solomon Moore, Los Angeles Times, November 15, 2006
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-shootings15nov15,1,6824170.story
A U.S. airstrike in the restive town of Ramadi killed at least 30
people, including women and children, witnesses said Tuesday. The
aerial attack, which took place late Monday, brought the number of
violent deaths reported in Iraq on Tuesday to at least 91, according
to military sources and witnesses.

Dr. Barakt Mansi, a Ramadi physician, said many of the bodies arriving
at the city's morgue Monday night and Tuesday morning were shattered
and charred. Another physician, who identified himself only as Dr.
Kamal, said some died because of delays created by American roadblocks
and heavy fighting.

"It was difficult for us to reach the location because the Americans
cordoned off the area," he said. "This increased the number of the
dead — some of the injured could have been evacuated and kept alive."

15) We Will not Be Able to Survive Much Longer
Iraq's health minister discusses the effects of the US elections on his country.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,448290,00.html
Spiegel: The Republicans have lost the majority in Congress and
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has resigned. Was this good news for
Iraq?

Shameri: The Americans are the reason for the disaster in our country.
Rumsfeld made many mistakes, and we are pleased to see him go. The
Americans understand nothing about Iraq. They are not protecting us,
but just themselves. The Democrats' victory will make things easier
for us.

Pakistan
16) Pakistan Moves to Amend Its Hard-Line Rape Laws
Salman Masood, New York Times, November 15, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/15/world/asia/15cnd-pakistan.html
After months of debate, the Pakistani government pushed legislation
through Parliament today that would amend the country's rape laws,
which have been assailed as unfair to women. The vote, despite
continuing opposition from hard-line Islamic parties, was a litmus
test of President Pervez Musharraf's ability to bring actual reforms
in his program of "enlightened moderation."

Under the existing laws, known as the Hudood laws, a woman must
produce four witnesses to prove rape. A failure to do so could result
in her being charged with adultery. That stigma alone keeps many women
from bringing charges against their attackers.

The new legislation is subject to approval by the Senate and
president, which are considered formalities. It removes rape from the
jurisdiction of Islamic law, which covers matters like marriage and
divorce, and makes it a crime punishable under Pakistan's penal code.
The new legislation does away with the requirement for four male
witnesses and will allow convictions to be made on the basis of
forensic and circumstantial evidence.

The new law would make extra-marital sex a criminal offense with
penalties of up to five years or a fine equivalent to $166. This
amendment was introduced at the insistence of religious scholars and
was backed by religious opposition parties. Human rights activists
here generally backed the law despite misgivings about this clause.
The amendment also introduces the concept of statutory rape, outlawing
sex with girls under 16. The Islamic code had banned sex with girls
before puberty.

Lebanon
17) Poll: 64% of Lebanese say opinion of U.S. worsened after war
Associated Press; published by Ha'aretz 14/11/2006  	 		
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/787931.html
The recent war between Israel and Hezbollah guerillas cost the United
States dearly in the eyes of Lebanese, a poll taken just over a month
after the violence found.

Part of the Gallup World Poll project, the survey released Tuesday
compared findings from its latest canvass, in August, 2005. In almost
every category, the United States was the big loser. Nearly two-thirds
of the Lebanese - 64 percent - who said their opinions of the United
States were worse after the month of fighting than before.

Almost half those polled described their opinions as "much worse"
after the war in which Israel's mainly U.S-equipped military did
substantial damage to Lebanese villages, roads, bridges and other
infrastructure.

Essential Medicines
18) Rich Countries 'Blocking Cheap Drugs for Developing World'
-US and EU have broken Doha pledges, says Oxfam
-Stop Aids claims 75% of HIV patients not treated
Sarah Boseley, Guardian, Tuesday, November 14, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1114-03.htm
Poor people are needlessly dying because drug companies and the
governments of rich countries are blocking the developing world from
obtaining affordable medicines, a report says today. Five years to the
day after the Doha declaration - a groundbreaking deal to give poor
countries access to cheap drugs - was signed at the World Trade
Organisation, Oxfam says things are worse.

The charity accuses the US, which champions the interests of its giant
pharmaceutical companies, of bullying developing countries into not
using the measures in the Doha declaration and the EU of standing by
and doing nothing. Doha technically allows poor countries to buy cheap
copies of desperately needed drugs but the US is accused of trying to
prevent countries such as Thailand and India, which have manufacturing
capacity, making and selling cheap generic versions so as to preserve
the monopolies of the drug giants.

"Rich countries have broken the spirit of the Doha declaration," said
Celine Charveriat, head of Oxfam's Make Trade Fair campaign. "The
declaration said the right things but needed political action to work
and that hasn't happened. In fact, we've actually gone backwards. Many
people are dying or suffering needlessly."

--------
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming
U.S. foreign policy so it reflects the values and interests of the
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