[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, October 4, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
October 4, 2006
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/newsroom/index.html

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Summary:
U.S.
Democrats criticized Senate Majority Leader Frist for saying that the
Afghan war against Taliban guerrillas can never be won militarily and
for favoring bringing "people who call themselves Taliban" into the
government. Frist said Monday in Afghanistan that Taliban fighters are
too numerous and too popular to be defeated. "You need to bring them
into a more transparent type of government," he said. Democrats
accused Frist of trying to "cut and run" in Afghanistan. "Senator
Frist now suggests that the best way forward in Afghanistan is to
coddle the Taliban by welcoming Taliban members into a coalition
government, as if 9/11 had never happened," House Minority Leader
Nancy Pelosi said.

Pelosi's criticism is unfortunate. If it's wrong for Republicans to
try to silence debate of U.S. foreign policy by accusing critics of
cowardice, it's wrong for Democrats to do it. If it's wrong to do it
with respect to Iraq, it's wrong to do it with respect to Afghanistan.

To express support for Senator Frist's suggestion that the U.S. seek a
political accommodation with supporters of the Taliban, you can write
a letter to a newspaper using this link:
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/fristafg_ltr.html

Note that this story has been mostly ignored by mainstream press: only
the AP is covering it. Neither the New York Times nor the Washington
Post has run an article on it. This is striking, given Frist's
stature. If you didn't read the Just Foreign Policy News, you might
not know about it.

The US, France and Britain rejected Iran's proposal that France
organize and monitor the production of enriched uranium inside Iran.
Washington has consistently taken the position that any uranium
enrichment on Iranian soil is out of the question because it could
give Iran the ability to master the nuclear fuel cycle. [This U.S.
position has no basis in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.]

A majority of U.S. adults say President Bush has deliberately misled
the public about progress in Iraq and opposition to the war matches an
all- time high, according to a poll conducted for CNN.

Secretary of State Rice is under pressure from Arab allies to renew
efforts for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
Arab officials expressed frustration that the US seems far more
focused on the issue of Iran's nuclear program.

Iran
British forces in Iraq have found no evidence to support US claims
that Iran is providing weapons and training in Iraq, the Washington
Post reports.

In a policy brief on US options regarding Iran's nuclear program, the
Cato Institute's Ted Carpenter argues sanctions won't work, subversion
won't work and could backfire, and air strikes won't work and would
cause a terrible backlash. The US could accept Iran as a member of the
nuclear club and rely on its own deterrent power as it has done
successfully in the past, but the best option would be to normalize
diplomatic and economic relations in exchange for Iran's agreement to
open its nuclear program to rigorous inspections.

Iran's president has ordered the country's nuclear sites be opened to
foreign tourists to prove its program is peaceful, the BBC reports.

Iraq
Two months after a security crackdown began in the capital, U.S.
military deaths appear to be rising, even as fatalities among Iraqi
security forces have fallen. U.S. officials said the recent increases
could be attributable to U.S. troops' greater exposure to combat since
redeploying in early August from heavily guarded bases to Baghdad's
streets.

Iraqi authorities have taken a brigade of up to 700 policemen out of
service and put members under investigation for "possible complicity"
with death squads following a mass kidnapping earlier this week.

Afghanistan
An unexpectedly fierce and prolonged Taliban offensive that began last
spring has U.S. and NATO officials deeply worried that they face a
serious insurgency, writes Jim Lobe for Inter Press Service. Greatly
compounding their concern is Pakistan's ceasefire agreement with
pro-Taliban tribal leaders. A senior U.S. military officer said
cross-border attacks by Taliban forces had tripled since the truce
took effect.

Contents:
U.S.
1) Frist Draws Criticism for Comments On Taliban
Associated Press, Wednesday, October 4, 2006; Page A16
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/03/AR2006100301284.html
Democrats criticized Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist yesterday for
saying that the Afghan war against Taliban guerrillas can never be won
militarily and for favoring bringing "people who call themselves
Taliban" into the government. Frist, who was in Afghanistan, said
Monday that Taliban fighters are too numerous and too popular to be
defeated. "You need to bring them into a more transparent type of
government," he said.

Democrats accused Frist of trying to "cut and run" in Afghanistan,
something Republicans have been accusing Democrats of seeking to do in
Iraq. "Senator Frist now suggests that the best way forward in
Afghanistan is to coddle the Taliban by welcoming Taliban members into
a coalition government, as if 9/11 had never happened," House Minority
Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said.

[To express support for Senator Frist's suggestion that the U.S. seek
a political accommodation with supporters of the Taliban, you can use
this link:
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/fristafg_ltr.html]

2) Iran's Proposal to End Nuclear Standoff Is Rejected by the West
Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, October 4, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/04/world/middleeast/04iran.html
Iran has proposed that France organize and monitor the production of
enriched uranium inside Iran, complicating negotiations over the fate
of its nuclear program. The US, France and Britain rejected the
proposal Tuesday, saying it was a stalling tactic and fell far short
of the UN Security Council's demand that Iran freeze all uranium
enrichment and reprocessing activities.

The proposal, made by Mohammad Saeidi, deputy director of the Atomic
Energy Organization of Iran, was presented as a sign of flexibility in
negotiations between Iran and six world powers represented by the EU.
A senior French official said: "This is totally excluded. There is
nothing substantive behind it." The US is giving Iran until the end of
the week to declare whether it will agree to fully stop making
enriched uranium or face sanctions. Enriched uranium can be used to
make energy or to fuel weapons, and Washington has consistently taken
the position that any uranium enrichment on Iranian soil is out of the
question because it could give Iran the ability to master the nuclear
fuel cycle.

Secretary of State Rice and the foreign ministers of Britain, France,
Russia, China and Germany have discussed the possibility of meeting in
London Friday to plot a strategy for the next steps, officials said.
While at a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on Tuesday, Rice
said there was nothing new in the Iranian proposal. "The Iranians have
floated it before," she said, suggesting that the US would reject any
proposal that allowed Iran to enrich and reprocess uranium on its own
soil.

The Iranian proposal, comes as Iran has hardened its position in
negotiations between Ali Larijani, its chief nuclear negotiator, and
Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief. Solana reported in recent
days that Larijani rejected calls to halt key nuclear activities even
though Iran could face sanctions by the Security Council, European
officials said. Instead Larijani floated the idea of the creation of
an international consortium to administer Iran's production of
enriched uranium.

Larijani told Solana Iran's current enrichment activities would have
to continue, and that Iran would consider only a temporary halt to the
expansion of its uranium enrichment program, officials added. The six
powers had been trying to persuade the Iranians to accept a
three-month halt on all uranium enrichment activities at Natanz and on
construction at the plutonium plant at Arak, EU officials said.
Uranium conversion, an earlier stage of processing, would have been
allowed to continue at the Isfahan plant.

There is frustration among EU governments with Solana for presenting
the results of his talks in too positive a light, officials said.
Solana has acknowledged lack of progress on substantive issues,
telling reporters Monday, "The fundamental matter of suspension has
not been agreed." But he has repeatedly pointed to "progress" on
peripheral issues, like where and when further negotiations would take
place. On Tuesday, Solana appeared to keep the door open to Iran's new
proposal, describing it as "interesting," and adding, "This is
something we have to analyze in greater detail."

In the radio interview, Saeidi proposed that Iran's uranium enrichment
activities would be monitored "in a tangible way" by Eurodif, a
multinational enrichment consortium based in France, and by Areva, the
France-based nuclear energy giant and majority shareholder in Eurodif.
87% of Areva is held by French governmental institutions, and the
company has vast interests in the US that it may not want to
jeopardize by seeming to negotiate with Iran.

3) Rice Urges 2 Palestinian Groups to Halt Violence
Philip Shenon, New York Times, October 4, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/04/world/middleeast/04diplo.html
Secretary of State Rice called Tuesday for an end to the new wave of
bloodshed between Palestinian factions as she prepared to travel to
the West Bank to support the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas.
"Innocent Palestinians are caught in this violence, and we call on all
parties to stop," Rice said. "The Palestinian people deserve calm."

Gunmen linked to Abbas's secular Fatah movement threatened Tuesday to
kill three senior leaders of Hamas, the Islamic group that won
Palestinian elections in January. The gunmen, Al Aksa Martyrs
Brigades, accused Hamas leaders of "sedition." The week's violence
appeared to complicate Secretary Rice's campaign to drum up support
among Arab nations for Abbas in his struggle to form a unity
government with Hamas that could be recognized by the US. The Bush
administration has said that it would resume financial aid to the
Palestinian Authority only if a Hamas-run government agreed to
recognize the right of Israel to exist and to forswear violence. Hamas
rejects the conditions.

4) Most in CNN Poll Say Bush Misled Public About Iraq
Roger Runningen, Bloomberg, October 3
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aFRWtis3fHNg
A majority of U.S. adults say President Bush has deliberately misled
the public about progress in Iraq and opposition to the war matches an
all- time high, according to a poll conducted for CNN. Sept. 29-Oct.
2: 57% said the Iraq War has made the US less safe from terrorism. 58%
said that the Bush administration misled the public on how the war is
going. 61% said that they oppose the Iraq War. 66% said that they
disapprove of the way that Bush is handling the Iraq War.

5) Rice Under Pressure on Mideast Peace Efforts
Robin Wright, Washington Post, Wednesday, October 4, 2006; 12:14 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/04/AR2006100400497.html
Secretary of State Rice arrived in Jerusalem under pressure from Arab
allies to jumpstart the Middle East peace process - as a Hamas
official was gunned down by masked assailants and Palestinian
Authority President Abbas declared that efforts to forge a unity
government between Hamas and his Fatah party had ground to a halt.
"There is no dialogue now," Abbas said.

In talks Tuesday in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Arab leaders rebuffed the
Bush administration's effort to foster a bloc of moderate Arab states
to stand against growing militancy in the Middle East. They bluntly
told Rice that they do not want to be pitted against other Arab
governments and movements, according to senior Arab officials. The
solution, U.S. allies told Rice, lies with stronger U.S. leadership in
solving the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Rice was confronted by pressure from eight governments - Egypt,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain - to
follow up on promises by Bush to help achieve a two-state solution
between Israel and the Palestinians. They questioned whether the
administration has the energy or commitment to pull off a solution to
the Palestinian issue before Bush leaves office, officials said.

Arab officials expressed frustration that the US seems far more
focused on the issue of Iran's nuclear program.

The new pressure came on the same day as a global appeal by 135 former
presidents, prime ministers and Nobel Peace Prize winners from the US,
Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia for a concerted international
effort to solve the Arab-Israeli conflict. The U.S. signatories to the
document, released by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group,
included former president Carter, ex-defense secretary Carlucci, 9/11
Commission vice chairman Hamilton and retired Gen. Clark.

On Wednesday, Hamas leader Mohammed Odeh was shot down by masked men
as he left a mosque, according to AP. The killing came one day after
members of Fatah threatened to kill senior Hamas figures. Some
witnesses told AP the assailants who shot Odeh used a vehicle with
Israeli license plates, and speculated that the killing may have been
the work of undercover Israeli agents.

Arab officials said they are increasingly concerned that, since the
cutoff of tax revenue by Israel and aid by foreign governments since
Hamas formed a government, an already serious humanitarian problem has
deepened.

On Iran, Egypt's Aboul Gheit said the Arabs listened to Rice but did
not agree to any statement or action. Rice warned Tuesday that after
weeks of diplomatic delays and Iranian stalling, time has run out for
talks. The issue, she added, is no longer just Iran, but the UN's
ability to deal effectively with global crises. "I hope that there is
still room to resolve this, but the international community is running
out of time because soon its own credibility . . . will be a matter of
question," Rice said.

Rice is tentatively planning to meet with her European counterparts,
at the end of her Middle East tour to agree on sanctions to impose on
Iran; Security Council action could follow as early as next week. The
US has not formally specified which sanctions it supports, although
they are widely reported to include a travel ban on Iranian officials
involved in the nuclear energy program and a ban on the sale of any
technology and hardware that could be used for production of deadly
weapons. U.S. officials have said the first actions would be mild but
would be followed by tougher measures if Iran failed to comply.

Iran
6) British Find No Evidence Of Arms Traffic From Iran
Troops in Southeast Iraq Test U.S. Claim of Aid for Militias
Ellen Knickmeyer, Washington Post, Wednesday, October 4, 2006; A21
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/03/AR2006100301577.html
Since late August, British commandos in the deserts of far
southeastern Iraq have been testing one of the most serious charges
leveled by the US against Iran: that Iran is secretly supplying
weapons, parts, funding and training for attacks on U.S.-led forces in
Iraq. A few hundred British troops have taken to the desert in the
start of what British officers said would be months of patrols aimed
at finding the illicit weapons trafficking from Iran, or any sign of
it. "I suspect there's nothing out there," the commander, Lt. Col.
Labouchere, said last month. "And I intend to prove it."

Other senior British military leaders spoke as explicitly. Britain,
whose forces have had responsibility for security in southeastern Iraq
since the war began, has found nothing to support the Americans'
contention that Iran is providing weapons and training in Iraq,
several senior military officials said. "I have not myself seen any
evidence - and I don't think any evidence exists -  of
government-supported or instigated" armed support on Iran's part in
Iraq, British Defense Secretary Des Browne.

Allegations that Iran or its agents are providing military support for
Iraqi Shiite Muslim militias and other armed groups is one of the most
contentious issues raising tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Most gravely, U.S. generals and diplomats accuse Iran of providing
infrared triggers for special explosives that are capable of piercing
heavy armor. Evidence of Iranian armed intervention in Iraq is
"irrefutable," Brig. Gen. Barbero told Pentagon reporters. The lead
U.S. military spokesman in Iraq renews the allegation almost weekly.

Iraq's Maysan province is "a funnel for Iranian munitions," said Wayne
White, who led the State Department's Iraq intelligence team during
the war and now is at the Middle East Institute. But Maj. Dominic
Roberts of the Queen's Dragoons said: "We have found no credible
evidence to suggest there is weapons smuggling across the border."

7) Iran's Nuclear Program: America's Policy Options
Ted Galen Carpenter, Cato Institute, September 18, 2006
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6690
Although it is possible that negotiations may produce a settlement to
the issue of Iran's nuclear program, it is more likely that those
negotiations will fail. If that happens, U.S. policymakers face a set
of highly imperfect options.

One option is to seek a UN Security Council resolution imposing
economic sanctions. However, sanctions have a poor record of getting
regimes to abandon high-priority policies. Even if Russia and China
can be induced to overcome their reluctance to endorse sanctions, it
is unlikely that such measures would halt Iran's quest for nuclear
weapons.

A second option is to intensify efforts to subvert Iran's clerical
regime. Unfortunately, such a strategy may backfire, undermining the
domestic legitimacy of Iranian dissidents. Moreover, there is no
certainty that a democratic Iran would choose to be nonnuclear.

Option three is to launch preemptive airstrikes against Iran's nuclear
installations. That is the most unwise strategy. At most, such strikes
would delay, not eliminate, Tehran's program. There is a grave risk
that Iran would retaliate with the full range of options at its
disposal, including attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and through
proxy organizations. Attacking Iran would also further alienate Muslim
populations around the world.

Option four is to reluctantly accept Iran as a member of the global
nuclear weapons club and rely on the deterrent power of America's vast
nuclear arsenal. While that strategy is not without risk, the US has
successfully deterred other volatile and unsavory regimes, most
notably Maoist China during that country's Cultural Revolution.

The best option, though, is to try to strike a grand bargain with
Iran. Washington should offer to normalize diplomatic and economic
relations in exchange for Tehran's agreement to open its nuclear
program to rigorous, on-demand international inspections to guarantee
that there is no diversion of nuclear material from peaceful purposes
to building weapons.

8) Iran 'to open atomic site tours'
BBC News, Wednesday, 4 October 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5405476.stm
Iran's president has ordered the country's nuclear sites be opened to
foreign tourists to prove its program is peaceful, state media report.
Possible attractions would include the plants at Isfahan and Natanz,
or a reactor being built in Bushehr. So far UN inspectors and
reporters are the only foreigners believed to have been allowed to
visit the sites. The head of Iran's tourism organisation said
President Ahmadinejad had asked his group to study ways for tourists
to see the sites.

Iraq
9) U.S. Fatalities in Iraq Rise Amid Crackdown
Increase may be linked to troops' deployment to the volatile streets
of Baghdad, officials say.
Solomon Moore, Los Angeles Times, October 4, 2006
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-usdeaths4oct04,1,1391563.story
Two months after a security crackdown began in the capital, U.S.
military deaths appear to be rising, even as fatalities among Iraqi
security forces have fallen, U.S. military sources and analysts said.
The U.S. military Tuesday revised to eight its count of American
deaths in the capital on Monday, the highest daily toll in a month. In
September, 74 U.S. troops died nationwide, about a third of them in
Baghdad, according to the military. U.S. officials and military
experts said the recent increases could be attributable to U.S.
troops' greater exposure to combat since redeploying in early August
from heavily guarded bases to Baghdad's streets.

10) Iraqi Police Unit Linked to Militias
Sameer N. Yacoub, Associated Press, Wednesday, October 4, 2006; 12:40
PM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/03/AR2006100300398.html
Iraqi authorities have taken a brigade of up to 700 policemen out of
service and put members under investigation for "possible complicity"
with death squads following a mass kidnapping earlier this week, the
U.S. military said Wednesday.

The Iraqi police officers were decommissioned following a kidnapping
Sunday when gunmen stormed a frozen food plant in the Amil district,
abducted 24 workers and shot two others. The bodies of seven of the
workers were found hours later but the fate of the others remains
unknown.

The action appeared aimed at signaling a new seriousness in tackling
police collusion with militias at a time when the government is under
increased pressure to put an end to the Shiite-Sunni violence that has
killed thousands this year and threatened to tear Iraq apart. Sunni
leaders blamed Shiite militias for the kidnapping and suggested
security forces had turned a blind eye to the attack.

The top U.S. military spokesman in Iraq, Maj. Gen. William B.
Caldwell, said the Iraqi police brigade in the area had been ordered
to stand down and was being retrained. "There was some possible
complicity in allowing death squad elements to move freely when they
should have been impeding them," he told a Baghdad news conference.
"The forces in the unit have not put their full allegiance to the
government of Iraq and gave their allegiance to others," he said.

Afghanistan
11) War on Terror Returning to Its Cradle
Jim Lobe, Inter Press Service, Wednesday, October 4, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1004-08.htm
Five years after the CIA was putting the final touches on a brilliant
campaign plan to oust the Taliban and its al Qaeda allies from power,
Afghanistan is back in the headlines, and the news isn't good. An
unexpectedly fierce and prolonged Taliban offensive that began last
spring has U.S. and NATO officials deeply worried that they face a
serious insurgency fueled by a thriving drug trade and growing popular
disaffection with the government of President Karzai.

Greatly compounding their concern is Pakistan's ceasefire agreement
with pro-Taliban, Pashtun tribal leaders signed earlier this month to
withdraw thousands of army troops from North Waziristan and release
several hundred Taliban and al Qaeda militants from jail.

The accord, similar to one reached with pro-Taliban forces in South
Waziristan two years ago, reportedly obliges the tribal chiefs to
prevent Taliban and al Qaeda forces from crossing into Afghanistan,
but most experts here considered those pledges a mere face-saving
measure that enabled Pakistan's president Musharraf, to insist during
his visits with sceptical U.S. officials that he remains committed to
the anti-terror fight.

Even as Musharraf sat down with Karzai for dinner hosted by Bush last
Tuesday, a senior U.S. military officer was telling reporters in Kabul
that cross-border attacks by Taliban forces had tripled since the
North Waziristan truce actually took effect in late June.

Several days later, the Washington Post reported on a captured al
Qaeda document that strongly suggested that at least part of the
group's top leadership is in fact living in North Waziristan,
bolstering claims that the truce had created, in Newsweek magazine's
words, a "'Jihadistan'... an autonomous quasi state of religious
radicals, mostly belonging to Pashtun tribes..." stretching from
central Afghanistan to much of northwestern Pakistan.

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Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming
U.S. foreign policy so that it reflects the values and interests of
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