[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, October 9, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
October 9, 2006

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Summary:
U.S.
In a tendentious article with a misleading headline, the New York
Times reported Saturday on Bush Administration claims to have won an
agreement from other permanent members of the UN Security Council to
"seek sanctions against Iran over its refusal to shut down a nuclear
enrichment program that could be used to build bombs." The headline
was "U.S. Cites Deal With U.N. Members to Punish Iran." In standard
American English, one typically "cites" things that are generally
acknowledged to be true, factual, or legitimate, like the Second Law
of Thermodynamics or one's First Amendment rights. One "claims" things
that are in dispute. As one reads further into the article, it becomes
clear that what the U.S. can "cite" is an agreement to discuss
sanctions, not an agreement to impose them.

James Baker, co-chair of the Iraq Study Group, said he expected the
panel would depart from Bush's calls to "stay the course," and
suggested the White House enter direct talks with Iran and Syria. "I
believe in talking to your enemies," he said. His comments offered a
glimmer of what members of his study group have described as an effort
to find a face-saving way for Bush to extract the US from the war.

Luis Posada Carriles, a Cuban exile accused in a plot to blow up a
civilian Cuban airplane that resulted in 73 deaths, presents a
quandary for the Bush administration, the New York Times reports.
Posada may soon go free because the US has been reluctant to press the
terrorism charges that could keep him in jail.

Momentum is growing for state governments to divest public funds from
companies, mostly foreign-based, doing business with Sudan, the
Washington Post reports.

A debate on the role of the Israeli lobby in U.S. foreign policy
involving prominent academics and former high-level U.S. and Israeli
officials is now viewable on the web. Juan Cole characterizes press
coverage of the event as a "virtual news blackout."

Iran
A senior cleric who opposes religious rule in Iran and a number of his
followers were arrested Sunday after clashes with police, Iranian news
agencies reported. Ayatollah Boroujerdi said he had written to world
leaders seeking protection and asking them "to make efforts to spread
traditional religion," separate from politics. "I believe people are
fed up with political religion and want traditional religion to
return," he said.

Iraq
Three and a half years after the American invasion, the violence that
has disfigured much of Iraqi society is hitting young Iraqis in new
ways, the New York Times reports. Young people say their lives have
shrunk to the size of their bedrooms and their dreams have been packed
away and largely forgotten.

American and Iraqi troops fought a fierce battle Sunday with militants
in Diwaniya, a stronghold of militia members loyal to Shiite cleric
Moktada al-Sadr, the US military said. The skirmish was the third
serious clash between American or Iraqi soldiers against members of
the Mahdi Army in Diwaniya in less than two months.

The number of U.S troops wounded in Iraq surged to its highest monthly
level in nearly two years last month, the Washington Post reports, as
776 U.S. troops were wounded in action in Iraq. Experts say the number
of wounded is a better gauge of the fierceness of fighting than combat
deaths because advances in armor and medical care now allow many to
survive who would have perished in past wars. The ratio of wounded to
killed among U.S. forces in Iraq is about 8 to 1, compared with 3 to 1
in Vietnam.

In southern Baghdad, American troops increasingly ask themselves if
this is their fight anymore, and who is the enemy, NBC News reports.

Israel
There are two reasons Israel won't make peace with Syria now, writes
veteran Israeli journalist and peace activist Uri Avnery. One is
domestic: the 20,000 Israeli settlers living in the occupied Golan
Heights, which Israel would have to give back as part of a peace deal.
The second is that President Bush wouldn't like it. A true Israeli
patriot, Avnery suggests, would try to make peace with Syria if it is
in Israel's interest, whether the US likes it or not.

Yemen
The election in Yemen was a victory for Abdelrahman al-Marwani, who
leads an anti-violence campaign in Yemen, the New York Times reports,
not because of how people voted but because only eight people were
killed. In part due to the efforts of his organization, that number
was down from 67 in the 2001 election.

Afghanistan
NATO's top commander in Afghanistan said Sunday the country was at a
tipping point and warned Afghans would likely switch their allegiance
to resurgent Taliban militants if there are no visible improvements in
people's lives in the next six months.

Russia
Hundreds of Russians attended a rally in Moscow Sunday to commemorate
a veteran journalist who was murdered Saturday, apparently in
retaliation for her exposure of human rights abuses by the Russian
government in Chechnya.

North Korea
North Korea's apparent nuclear test may be regarded as a failure of
the Bush administration's nuclear nonproliferation policy, the
Washington Post reports. But senior U.S. officials have said they
would welcome a North Korean test as a clarifying event that would end
the debate within the Bush administration about whether to solve the
problem through diplomacy or through tough actions designed to
destabilize the North Korean government.

Illegitimate Debt
Anti-debt campaigners are hailing Monday's decision by Norway to
cancel $80 million in debt after it determined the loans were not
intended to promote development, Inter Press Service reports. The IPS
reporter notes that Norway's action "broke ranks" with other
creditors, who have refused to acknowledge that much of the
international debt owed by poor countries is illegitimate. Remarkably,
the IPS article referred to the International Monetary Fund, the World
Bank, and the "Paris Club" group of creditor nations as being part of
a "creditors' cartel." What is remarkable about this characterization
is that it is so accurate. It's a safe bet this reporter will never
get a job at the New York Times.

Contents:
U.S.
1) U.S. Cites Deal With U.N. Members to Punish Iran
Philip Shenon, New York Times, October 7, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/07/world/middleeast/07iran.html
The US said it had won agreement on Friday from the other four
permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany to seek
sanctions against Iran over its refusal to shut down a nuclear
enrichment program that could be used to build bombs.

While the State Department praised the agreement American diplomats
conceded that there could still be long and difficult negotiations
over what penalties to impose and their timing.

Indeed, none of the other nations issued such an explicit statement
after the meeting. In the past, China and Russia have both said they
would be wary of sanctions against Iran, despite its defiance of
international demands to end nuclear enrichment.

Nicholas Burns, American under secretary of state for political
affairs, said whatever the other nations' diplomatic language, "What
we've got is an agreement to go to the Security Council" to punish
Iran.

In essence, Burns said, the six nations "concluded that Iran is not
prepared to negotiate with us" based on conditions set last spring,
and that "we'll go forward with sanctions."

But he admitted the issue was far from decided. "I think there's going
to be a spirited debate about what kind of sanctions should be agreed
to."

Burns was the senior American negotiator at the talks for the most of
the day because Secretary of State Rice was delayed when her military
jet developed mechanical problems.

The German foreign minister may have come closest to the American
statement when he told ZDF television on Friday that "if there is no
new decision from inside the Iranian leadership, there is at present
no alternative to having the Security Council deal with this
conflict."

Agence France-Presse quoted the French foreign minister, Philippe
Douste-Blazy, as saying that the six nations have "decided, in a
unified manner, to work together in the next few days to speak about
proportionate and reversible sanctions."

2) G.O.P.'s Baker Hints Iraq Plan Needs Change
David E. Sanger, New York Times, October 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/09/world/middleeast/09baker.html
James Baker, the Republican co-chair of a bipartisan panel reassessing
Iraq strategy for President Bush, said Sunday he expected the panel
would depart from Bush's calls to "stay the course," and strongly
suggested the White House enter direct talks with countries it had
kept at arm's length, including Iran and Syria. "I believe in talking
to your enemies," he said, noting he made 15 trips to Damascus while
serving as secretary of state. "You don't give away anything, but in
my view, it's not appeasement to talk to your enemies."

The "Iraq Study Group," created by Baker last March with the
encouragement of some members of Congress to come up with new ideas on
Iraq strategy, has already talked to some representatives of Iran and
Syria about Iraq's future, he said. His comments offered the first
glimmer of what other members of his study group have described as an
effort to find a face-saving way for Bush to extract the US from the
war. "I think it's fair to say our commission believes that there are
alternatives between the stated alternatives … of 'stay the course'
and 'cut and run,' " Baker said.

He rejected a rapid withdrawal from Iraq, saying that would invite
Iran, Syria and "even our friends in the gulf" to fill the power
vacuum. He dismissed as unworkable a proposal by Senator Biden to
decentralize Iraq and give the country's three major groups their own
regions, distributing oil revenue to all. Baker said he had concluded
"there's no way to draw lines" in Iraq's major cities, where ethnic
groups are intermingled.

According to White House officials and commission members, Baker has
been talking to Bush and national security adviser Hadley on a regular
basis. They say he is unlikely to issue suggestions the president has
not tacitly approved in advance. Those proposals - which he has said
must be both bipartisan and unanimous - could give Bush some political
latitude to adopt strategies he had once rejected, like setting
deadlines for a phased withdrawal of American forces.

It was notable that Baker joined the growing number of Republicans who
are trying to create some space between themselves and the White
House. On Sunday Baker was shown a video of Senator Warner, who said
last week Iraq was "drifting sideways" and urged consideration of a
"change of course" if the Iraqi government could not restore order in
two or three months. The American ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay
Khalilzad, has offered a similar warning. Asked if he agreed with that
timetable, Baker said, "Yes, absolutely. And we're taking a look at
other alternatives." [Of course, the ambassador is a Bush
Administration official, so this "distance" takes on the appearance of
something orchestrated, perhaps to suggest to voters that after the
election there will be a change of course, even Republicans are
returned to power -JFP.]

Members of the study group have privately expressed concern that
within months, whatever course the group recommended could be
overtaken by the chaos in Iraq. "I think the big question is whether
we can come up with something before it's too late," one member said
last month. "There's a real sense that the clock is ticking, that Bush
is desperate for a change, but no one in the White House can bring
themselves to say so with this election coming."

It was a measure of how much the situation had deteriorated that only
one member of the group, former Senator Robb, ventured beyond the
protected walls of the Green Zone.

Friday,. Biden said he thought he saw "heads nodding up and down"
about his ideas on creating autonomous regions of the country, but
Baker made clear on Sunday that he was not among them. "Experts on
Iraq have suggested that, if we do that, that in itself will trigger a
huge civil war because the major cities in Iraq are mixed," Baker
said.

Baker has been critical of how the Bush administration conducted
post-invasion operations, and he has not backed away from statements
in his 1995 memoir, in which he described opposing the ouster of
Saddam Hussein in 1991. He had said he feared such action might lead
to a civil war, "even if Saddam were captured and his regime toppled,
American forces would still be confronted with the specter of a
military occupation of indefinite duration to pacify the country and
sustain a new government."

3) Castro Foe Puts U.S. in an Awkward Spot
Marc Lacey, New York Times, October 8, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/08/world/americas/08posada.html
Cubana Airlines Flight 455 crashed off the coast of Barbados on Oct.
6, 1976, killing all 73 people aboard. Plastic explosives ignited the
plane. Implicated in the attack was Luis Posada Carriles, a Cuban
exile. Posada is in detention in El Paso, held on an immigration
violation. His case presents a quandary for the Bush administration,
in part because Posada is a former C.I.A. operative who directed his
wrath at a government that Washington has long opposed. Despite
insistent calls from Cuba and Venezuela for his extradition, the
administration has refused to send him to either country for trial.

Posada may soon go free because the US has been reluctant to press the
terrorism charges that could keep him in jail. That has brought
criticism of the Bush administration for a double standard for those
who commit terrorist acts. "The fight against terrorism cannot be
fought à la carte," said José Pertierra, a lawyer representing the
government of Venezuela in its effort to extradite Posada. "A
terrorist is a terrorist."

The Bush administration has stopped short of prosecuting him as a
terrorist, however, even though the Justice Department called him as
much this week. In court papers, it described him as "an unrepentant
criminal and admitted mastermind of terrorist plots and attacks on
tourist sites." Instead, Posada faces immigration charges, as the Bush
administration tries its best to deport him somewhere else, where he
would walk free.

Canada, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and
Panama have all turned down American requests to take Posada, who
denies he bombed the plane but is linked to the case in declassified
C.I.A. and F.B.I. files. Two countries want Posada: Venezuela, where
he is wanted for blowing up the plane, and Cuba, where he is viewed as
an enemy who has repeatedly tried to assassinate Castro.

The Bush administration is now invoking a law that bars the release of
an illegal immigrant who poses adverse foreign policy consequences for
the US. That tack has placed it in the awkward position of having to
call Posada a terrorist even as it refuses to charge him as one.

4) Sudan Divestment Effort Gains Momentum at State Level
Nora Boustany, Washington Post, Saturday, October 7, 2006; A12
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/06/AR2006100601583.html
Momentum is growing for state governments to divest public funds from
companies, mostly foreign-based, doing business with Khartoum. In a
victory for business lobbyists, Congress approved a Sudan sanctions
bill stripped of language that would have endorsed states' rights to
pass divestment laws. The National Foreign Trade Council, representing
more than 300 multinational companies, had lobbied aggressively
against the provision on state investments inserted by the House
during its consideration of the bill last year.

A divestment movement, however, appears to be gaining momentum across
the country, with active campaigns on university campuses and at city
and state levels. Six states have already passed divestment laws:
Maine, Connecticut, Oregon, Illinois, New Jersey and California.
Lawmakers in many states are pushing for divestment bills, according
to the Sudan Divestment Task Force.

Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,
Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Washington could consider
some form of legislation early next year, according to the task force.

5) Debate: The Israeli Lobby: Does it Have Too Much Influence on US
Foreign Policy?, Cooper Union, New York City, October 3, 2006
Recorded by ScribeMedia for the London Review of Books
Panelists: John Mearsheimer, Professor of Political Science,
University of Chicago.
Shlomo Ben-Ami, former Israeli foreign and security minister
Martin Indyk, Saban Center, Brookings Institution.
Tony Judt, Professor in European Studies, New York University.
Rashid Khalidi, Professor of Arab Studies, Columbia University.
Dennis Ross, Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
http://blog.scribestudio.com/articles/2006/10/03/the-israeli-lobby-does-it-have-too-much-influence-on-us-foreign-policy
Juan Cole writes in his blog: There was a virtual news blackout on the
debate. Despite the widespread interest sparked by the Mearsheimer and
Walt article on the Israel lobby in the London Review of Books last
spring, no major news outlet bothered to cover this important debate,
nor was it on C-Span.

Iran
6) Iran Arrests Outspoken Cleric Who Opposes Religious Rule
Nazila Fathi, New York Times, October 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/09/world/middleeast/09iran.html
A senior cleric who opposes religious rule of Iran and a number of his
followers were arrested Sunday after clashes with the riot police,
news agencies reported. About 1,000 supporters of the cleric,
Ayatollah Mohammad Kazemeni Boroujerdi, gathered outside his home
Saturday, the semiofficial ILNA news agency reported. They were there
apparently to protect him from arrest and to protest the arrests over
the past month of other supporters who had tried to protect him after
a court had summoned him.

News reports quoted officials saying members of the crowd came armed
with knives and daggers, and the reports said riot police dispersed
them with tear gas. Ayatollah Boroujerdi said he had written to Kofi
Annan, to EU foreign policy chief Solana, to the Pope and others
seeking protection and asking them "to make efforts to spread
traditional religion," separate from politics, it was reported. "I
believe people are fed up with political religion and want traditional
religion to return," he was quoted as saying. Protesters who were
interviewed on opposition radio and satellite television channels
Saturday said the supporters of Ayatollah Boroujerdi were prepared to
die in his defense.

Iraq
7) Sectarian Havoc Freezes the Lives of Young Iraqis
Sabrina Tavernise, New York Times, October 8, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/08/world/middleeast/08iraqyouth.html
In a dimly lit room in central Baghdad, Noor is a lonely teenage
prisoner. Many of his friends have left the country, and some who have
stayed have strange new habits: a Shiite acts holier-than-thou; a
Sunni joins an armed gang. At 19, Noor is neither working nor in
college. He is not even allowed outdoors.

Three and a half years after the American invasion, the violence that
has disfigured much of Iraqi society is hitting young Iraqis in new
ways. Young people from five Baghdad neighborhoods say their lives
have shrunk to the size of their bedrooms and their dreams have been
packed away and largely forgotten. It is no longer possible to make
plans. "I can't go outside, I can't go to college," said Noor. "If I'm
killed, it doesn't even matter because I'm dead right now."

8) U.S. and Iraqi Forces Clash With Shiite Militia
Michael Luo, New York Times, October 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/09/world/middleeast/09iraq.html
American and Iraqi troops fought a fierce battle Sunday with militants
in the southern city of Diwaniya, a stronghold of militia members
loyal to Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, the US military said. The
skirmish was the third serious clash between American or Iraqi
soldiers against members of the Mahdi Army in Diwaniya in less than
two months. Abdul Razzaq al-Nedawi, head of Sadr's office in Diwaniya,
said residents were surprised Sunday when American troops began
raiding homes in three residential neighborhoods in the middle of the
night. "There was an agreement with the Iraqi government that U.S.
forces would not enter residential areas in this city," he said. "This
agreement was made through a channel linked to the office of the prime
minister."

9) U.S. Casualties in Iraq Rise Sharply
Growing American Role in Staving Off Civil War Leads to Most Wounded Since 2004
Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, Sunday, October 8, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/07/AR2006100700907.html
The number of U.S troops wounded in Iraq surged to its highest monthly
level in nearly two years as American GIs fight block-by-block in
Baghdad to check a spiral of sectarian violence that U.S. commanders
warn could lead to civil war. Last month, 776 U.S. troops were wounded
in action in Iraq, the highest number since the assault to retake the
city of Fallujah in November 2004, according to Defense Department
data. It was the fourth-highest monthly total since the U.S.-led
invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

The sharp increase in American wounded - with nearly 300 more in the
first week of October - is a measure of the degree to which the U.S.
military has been thrust into the lead of the effort to stave off
full-scale civil war in Iraq, military officials and experts say.
Beyond Baghdad, Marines battling Sunni insurgents in Iraq's western
province of Anbar last month also suffered their highest number of
wounded in action since late 2004.

More than 20,000 U.S. troops have been wounded in combat in the Iraq
war, and about half have returned to duty. While much media reporting
has focused on the more than 2,700 killed, military experts say the
number of wounded is a more accurate gauge of the fierceness of
fighting because advances in armor and medical care today allow many
service members to survive who would have perished in past wars. The
ratio of wounded to killed among U.S. forces in Iraq is about 8 to 1,
compared with 3 to 1 in Vietnam.

10) Soldiers question when Iraqis will take the lead
Invisible enemy, untrustworthy allies have troops questioning their purpose
Richard Engel, NBC News, Oct 7, 2006
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15160357/
The U.S. Cavalry's Crazy Horse, 3rd Platoon ventures out into Southern
Baghdad, where the enemy is invisible, Iraqi allies untrustworthy, and
where American troops increasingly ask themselves if this is their
fight anymore. And who is the enemy? "It's not clear now who we're
always fighting: they're terrorists, they're criminals, they're
religious radicals," says Sgt. Mike Schmieder. Just how murky it's
become is obvious after only an hour on patrol. The platoon finds the
body of a Sunni man executed and dumped by the roadside just 30
minutes earlier, along with his ID and a photograph of his daughter.
Then Iraqi police arrive - the soldiers think too quickly. No one
called them.

The body these soldiers found had been shot by an Iraqi policeman's
pistol; witnesses saw an Iraqi police car leave the scene. Now the
soldiers are investigating to see if these police were themselves
involved. Surprisingly, an Iraqi police lieutenant tells us he thinks
fellow police did it. "My men are infiltrated by Shiite militias and I
can't get rid of them," he says. "If I report them, they'll kill me."

The troops say it's frustrating not to trust their Iraqi counterparts.
Do soldiers here ever ask themselves, "Why are we here? Is this our
war anymore?" "Oh yes, all the time. I ask myself that a lot, too,"
says Spc. Vernon Roberson. "We've been here for so long and we've done
so much, but it's just so far we can go."

Israel
11) Avnery: Lunch in Damascus
Uri Avnery, Gush Shalom (Peace Bloc), 07-10-2006
http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1160256257/
Traveling in a taxi, I had an argument with the driver - a profession
associated in Israel with extreme right-wing views. I tried in vain to
convince him of the desirability of peace with the Arabs. In our
country, peace can seem like something out of science fiction. "When
we have peace," I said, "You can take your taxi in the morning and go
to Damascus, have lunch there with real authentic Hummus and come back
home in the evening." He jumped at the idea. "Wow," he exclaimed, "If
that happens, I shall take you with me for nothing!"

Bashar Al-Assad has succeeded in confusing the Israeli government.As
long as he voices the ritual threat to liberate the Golan Heights by
force, it does not upset anybody. That only confirms what many want to
hear: there is no way to have peace with Syria, sooner or later we
shall have a war. Peace with Syria would mean giving back the Golan
Heights. No peace, no need to give them back. But when Bashar starts
to talk peace, we are in trouble. That is a sinister plot. It may, God
forbid, create a situation that would compel us to return the
territory. Therefore, we should not even speak about it. The news must
be buried in some remote corner of the papers and at the end of the
news on TV, as just "another speech of Assad". The government rejects
them "on the threshold", adding that it cannot even be discussed
until…

Until what? Until he stops supporting Hizbullah. Until Syria expels
the representatives of Hamas and the other Palestinian organizations.
Until regime change takes place in Syria. Until a Western-style
democracy is installed there. In short, until he registers as a member
of the Zionist organization.

Why don't we make peace with Syria? The domestic reason is the
existence of 20,000 settlers on the Golan Heights, far more popular
than the West Bank settlers. Barak almost came to an agreement with
Syria. The only question that remained was almost ludicrous: should
the Syrians reach the shoreline of the Sea of Tiberias (the situation
before the Six-day war) or stay at a distance of a few dozen meters
(the border between the British and the French.) In popular parlance:
will Assad dangle his long feet in the water of the lake? For Assad
Sr. that was a question of honor. Is it worthwhile to risk for this
the lives of thousands of Israelis and Syrians, who may die in another
war?

The second reason for rejecting peace with Syria is connected with the
US. Syria belongs to Bush's "axis of evil". Bush doesn't give a damn
for the long-range interests of Israel. No Israeli government -
certainly not that of Olmert - would dare to disobey the American
president. Therefore, all peace feelers from Assad will be rejected
"on the threshold". This affair throws some light on the complex
relations between Israel and the US: who is wagging who - does the dog
wag its tail or the tail its dog?

Olmert says we must ignore Assad's peace offers, because we must not
help him to escape Bush's wrath. An Israeli patriot would have said
exactly the opposite: If Assad is ready to make peace with us we
should jump at this opportunity and exploit this situation to achieve
at long last peace on our northern front.

Yemen
12) One Man Leads Often Dangerous Quest to Quell Violence in Yemen
Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, October 8, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/08/world/middleeast/08yemen.html
With his mobile phone buzzing incessantly and young men standing by
the phones for any word of trouble, Abdelrahman al-Marwani waited
nervously as the polls closed in Yemen's presidential elections on
Sept. 20, eager to see the results of his decade-long campaign.
Success had nothing to do with who might win and everything to do with
whether election day remained peaceful.

The election was something of a victory for Marwani, who has struggled
to bring the issue of violence and the need for gun control into the
spotlight here. For the past decade, he has led a lonely and often
dangerous fight to quell tribal wars, seeking to break a cycle of
revenge and retribution that kills as many as 1,200 people a year.
Through his organization, Dar Al Salam, or the House of Peace, he says
he has negotiated cease-fire deals between warring tribes and even
persuaded some to disarm.

This year he persuaded the government to declare election day a
weapons-free day. Then he helped cajole Yemen's combative tribes to
sign a contract agreeing to leave their weapons at home, and he
enlisted businessmen to plaster his trademark symbol, a pistol crossed
out with a thick red line, on billboards, in newspapers, and on
bottles of water and laundry detergent. Eight people were killed on
election night, AP reported, but that was down from the 67 killed and
more than 100 wounded during local council elections in 2001.

Afghanistan
13) NATO Chief Warns of Afghan Tipping Point
Fisnik Abrashi, Associated Press, Sunday, October 8, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1008-04.htm
NATO's top commander in Afghanistan said Sunday the country was at a
tipping point and warned Afghans would likely switch their allegiance
to resurgent Taliban militants if there are no visible improvements in
people's lives in the next six months. Gen. David Richards, who
commands NATO's 32,000 troops, warned in an interview with AP that if
life doesn't get better over the winter, most Afghans could switch
sides.

"They will say, 'We do not want the Taliban but then we would rather
have that austere and unpleasant life that that might involve than
another five years of fighting,'" Richards said. Afghanistan is going
through its worst bout of violence since the U.S.-led invasion removed
the Taliban regime from power. The Taliban has made a comeback in the
south and east of the country and is seriously threatening Western
attempts to stabilize the country. "If we collectively ... do not
exploit this winter to start achieving concrete and visible
improvement," then some 70 percent of Afghans could switch sides,
Richards told AP.

Russia
14) Moscow Rally Memorializes Slain Reporter
Peter Finn, Washington Post, Monday, October 9, 2006; A12
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/08/AR2006100800358.html
Hundreds of Russians attended a rally in Moscow Sunday to commemorate
Anna Politkovskaya, a veteran journalist who was murdered in an
apparent contract killing Saturday, and the country's top law
enforcement official said he was taking personal charge of the
investigation because of its "particular importance and its wide
resonance within society." "The investigation will focus on possible
links between the killing and Politkovskaya's work," said a
spokeswoman for the prosecutor general, who is now heading the probe
into the journalist's death. The killing of Politkovskaya, a fierce
critic of the Kremlin in the conflict in Chechnya, was the second
assassination of a crusading figure in Moscow in less than a month. In
September, a Central Bank official who had led a campaign against
corruption was gunned down as he left a soccer match.

North Korea
15) Reported Test 'Fundamentally Changes the Landscape' for U.S. Officials
Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Monday, October 9, 2006; A14
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/09/AR2006100900047.html
North Korea's apparent nuclear test last night may well be regarded as
a failure of the Bush administration's nuclear nonproliferation
policy. Since Bush became president, North Korea has restarted its
nuclear reactor and increased its stock of weapons-grade plutonium, so
it may now have enough for 10 or 11 weapons, compared with one or two
when Bush took office.

Yet a number of senior U.S. officials have said privately they would
welcome a North Korean test, regarding it as a clarifying event that
would end the debate within the Bush administration about whether to
solve the problem through diplomacy or through tough actions designed
to destabilize North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's grip on power. Now
U.S. officials will push for tough sanctions at the U.N. Security
Council, and are considering a raft of largely unilateral measures,
including stopping and inspecting every ship that goes in and out of
North Korea. "This fundamentally changes the landscape now," one U.S.
official said.

When Bush became president in 2000, Pyongyang's reactor was frozen
under a 1994 agreement with the United States. Clinton administration
officials thought they were so close to a deal limiting North Korean
missiles that in the days before he left office, Bill Clinton
seriously considered making the first visit to Pyongyang by a U.S.
president.

But conservatives had long been deeply skeptical of the deal freezing
North Korea's program -- known as the Agreed Framework -- in part
because it called for building two light-water nuclear reactors
(largely funded by the Japanese and South Koreans). When
then-Secretary of State Colin L. Powell publicly said in early 2001
that he favored continuing Clinton's approach, Bush rebuked him.

Illegitimate Debt
16) Norway Breaks Ranks on "Illegitimate Debt"
Emad Mekay, Inter Press Service, Saturday, October 7, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1007-02.htm
Anti-debt campaigners are hailing as groundbreaking Monday's decision
by Norway to cancel $80 million in debt owed by five poor nations
after it determined that the loans were not granted in a good faith
effort to promote development. Several leading NGOs immediately touted
the decision as a model for other wealthy creditors to follow in order
to ease the global debt crisis that has squeezed many developing
nations.

"It is not fair that the populations of debtor nations continue to pay
the price of corrupt, negligent and politically motivated lending in
the past," said Gail Hurley of the anti-debt group Eurodad. "Today the
silence has been broken and we urge other creditor countries, in
particular in Europe, to follow Norway's bold lead," she said. A press
release from the foreign ministry said the countries that will benefit
are Ecuador, Egypt, Jamaica, Peru and Sierra Leone.

In its announcement - first of its kind by a rich lender nation - the
Norwegian government admitted it had made "a policy failure" and that
it had played a role in adding to the "illegitimate debt" poor nations
accumulated over the years which have eaten into their social spending
budgets. The decision is also significant because Norway broke ranks
with the cartel of creditors who have mostly denied they were lending
irresponsibly or for political reasons.

Rich nations, especially in the powerful group of bilateral creditors
known as the Paris Club, and through multilateral lenders like the
World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, have long denied
promoting illegitimate debt to corrupt governments or failed policies
in developing countries.

In its statement, the Norwegian government said the "illegitimate
debt" in question came about as the result of a campaign to bolster
the country's troubled shipbuilding industry by selling vessels and
shipping equipment to poor countries. The proposal suggests the debts
be cancelled unilaterally and unconditionally, without extra budgetary
allocation.

The government of Norway said it will not report the cancelled debts
as official development assistance. This means that the debt
forgiveness will be supplementary to Norway's ordinary official aid.
Such a move breaks the tradition of counting partial debt alleviation
as new aid to poor nations - a practice critics say has led to
artificially inflated aid budgets that give the impression there is
more money available for developing countries than there really is.

--------
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming
U.S. foreign policy so that it reflects the values and interests of
the majority of Americans.