[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, September 11, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
September 11, 2006

Summary:
U.S. Politics
The CIA last fall repudiated the claim there were prewar ties between
Iraq's government and Al Qaeda, according to a report issued Friday by
the Senate Intelligence Committee. The disclosure undercuts continuing
assertions by the Bush administration that such ties existed, the New
York Times reports. CIA counterterrorism officers have increasingly
enrolled for an insurance plan that would pay judgments and expenses
if they are sued or charged with criminal wrongdoing, reflecting
heightened anxiety that officers may be vulnerable to accusations of
abuse, torture, and human rights violations.

Iran
Representatives of Iran and the EU said Sunday that they had made
progress in the search for a compromise to avert possible UN sanctions
over Iran's nuclear program. The cautious-but-positive tone of the
statements from Solana and Larijani contrasted sharply with the US
position. US officials have said they hope sanctions language could be
ready when the UN General Assembly convenes next week. There were
suggestions that Iran might be willing to suspend its
uranium-enrichment program if negotiations on the package were to
start. The US, however, might not accept the idea.

Iraq
An agreement struck 11 months ago by Shiite and Kurdish leaders to win
Sunni Arab support for a new constitution is fraying, causing concern
among some political leaders that it could jeopardize Iraq's fragile
governing coalition. The dispute peaked Sunday as a large Shiite
faction continued to fight for quick approval of legislation giving
provinces authority to create autonomous states. The chief of
intelligence for the Marine Corps in Iraq concluded that the prospects
for securing that country's western Anbar province are dim and that
there is almost nothing the U.S. military can do to improve the
political and social situation there. His report says that there are
no functioning Iraqi government institutions in Anbar, leaving a
vacuum that has been filled by the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Though Moqtada al-Sadr and his followers hold more seats in Iraq's
parliament than any other faction, their attitude toward the U.S.-led
occupation remains belligerent, the Washington Post reports. The
evolution of Sadr as a political kingmaker is emerging as a core
challenge to U.S. visions of stability in Iraq. Sadr is increasingly
seen as a man who has the power to either implode Iraq or keep it
together. Many adults in the US are disappointed with the way the Iraq
is progressing,

In a new Zogby poll of US opinion, 58 per cent of respondents believe
the war in Iraq has not been worth the loss of American lives. A small
but apparently growing number of Iraq experts believe dissolution of
the country is inevitable, the Christian Science Monitor reports.

Palestine
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Monday his Fatah party and
the ruling Hamas party have agreed to form a coalition government, a
move Palestinians hope will ease crippling international sanctions.
The agreement was said to be based on a proposal that implies
recognition of Israel. Western nations and Israel have been
withholding hundreds of millions of dollars from the government after
Hamas swept January parliamentary elections.

Afghanistan
A provincial governor was killed by a suicide bomber. The governor is
the highest-ranking official to be killed since the Taliban began a
campaign of suicide bombings last year. The bombings have unnerved the
public and the government, raising fears of an Iraq-style escalation
of violence in large cities.

In the southern provinces, the Washington Post reports, open warfare
has resumed after four years of relative quiet. Insurgents are
battling NATO troops; thousands of villagers have fled their homes.
Schools have shut down, and development projects have stopped. Opium
poppy cultivation, virtually wiped out by the Taliban, has soared to
record levels. Nationwide it increased by 59 percent in the past year.

Bolivia
Opposition leaders in Bolivia's wealthier eastern regions say a strike
to protest plans to re-write the constitution was a success, but the
government said the stoppage was a failure, because support was
limited to the east, BBC reports. The strikers were objecting to plans
to allow a constituent assembly to amend the charter by simple
majority vote. A power struggle between Bolivia's wealthier, white
elite - which opposes the changes - and its indigenous majority is at
the heart of the row.

Philippines
The trial of four marines charged in a rape case has become the latest
focus of long-standing nationalist resentments, the Times reports. For
many, the marines and their accuser have come to symbolize more than a
century of American domination.

In this issue:
U.S. Politics
1) C.I.A. Said to Find No Hussein Link to Terror Chief
2) Worried CIA Officers Buy Legal Insurance
Iran
3) Europe Union and Iran Report Progress in Nuclear Talks
Iraq
4) Deal on a Constitution for Iraq Is Teetering
5) Anbar Situation Called Dire
6) Sadr, a Question Mark Etched in Black
7) More Americans Upset with Loss of Life in Iraq
8) As violence escalates, so does talk of a divided Iraq
Palestine
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Monday his Fatah party and
the ruling Hamas party have agreed to form a coalition government, a
move Palestinians hope will ease crippling international sanctions.
Afghanistan
10) Suicide Bomber Kills a Governor in Afghanistan
11) Afghan Experiment Marked by Progress And Disillusionment
Bolivia
12) Bolivia sees anti-reform protests
Philippines
13) 4 Marines to Begin Defense in Rape Trial in Philippines

Contents:
U.S. Politics
1) C.I.A. Said to Find No Hussein Link to Terror Chief
Mark Mazzetti, New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/09/world/middleeast/09intel.html
The CIA last fall repudiated the claim that there were prewar ties
between Saddam Hussein's government and an operative of Al Qaeda, Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi, according to a report issued Friday by the Senate
Intelligence Committee. The disclosure undercuts continuing assertions
by the Bush administration that such ties existed, and that they
provided evidence of links between Iraq and Al Qaeda.

The Republican-controlled committee, in a second report, also sharply
criticized the administration for its reliance on the Iraqi National
Congress during the prelude to the war in Iraq. The findings are part
of a continuing inquiry by the committee into prewar intelligence
about Iraq. The conclusions went beyond its earlier findings, issued
in the summer of 2004, by including criticism not just of American
intelligence agencies but also of the administration.

2) Worried CIA Officers Buy Legal Insurance
Plans Fund Defense In Anti-Terror Cases
R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, Monday, September 11, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/10/AR2006091001286.html
CIA counterterrorism officers have signed up in growing numbers for a
government-reimbursed, private insurance plan that would pay their
civil judgments and legal expenses if they are sued or charged with
criminal wrongdoing. The new enrollments reflect heightened anxiety at
the CIA that officers may be vulnerable to accusations they were
involved in abuse, torture, human rights violations and other
misconduct. The anxieties stem partly from public controversy about a
system of secret CIA prisons in which detainees were subjected to
harsh interrogation methods, including temperature extremes and
simulated drowning.

The White House contends the methods were legal, but some CIA officers
have worried privately that they may have violated international law
or domestic criminal statutes. Details of the rough interrogations
could come to light if trials are held for any of the approximately
100 detainees who were held in the prisons. Terrorism suspects'
defense attorneys are expected to argue that admissions made by their
clients were illegally coerced as the result of policies set in
Washington.

Iran
3) Europe Union and Iran Report Progress in Nuclear Talks
Judy Dempsey, New York Times, September 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/world/middleeast/11iran.html
Representatives of Iran and the EU said Sunday that they had made
progress in the search for a compromise to avert possible UN sanctions
over Iran's nuclear program. "The meetings … have been productive,"
said Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief, after talks with
Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator. "We have clarified some
of the misunderstandings that existed before." He added that he wanted
to continue the negotiations. "We have made progress," he said. "We
want to continue that line, and we are going to meet next week."
Larijani said "many misunderstandings had been removed."

The cautious-but-positive tone of the statements from Solana and
Larijani contrasted sharply with the US position outlined last week by
Nicholas Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs. It
could open a rift between the Europeans and the US. Burns had said
Washington wanted to start drafting language on sanctions on Monday.
He said he hoped a draft could be ready when the UN General Assembly
convenes next week.

According to diplomats familiar with the talks, Solana wanted to
clarify whether Iran would introduce curbs to its enrichment program,
as Iran hinted in its reply, if negotiations started. Reuters reported
Sunday that Larijani had said Iran would be willing to consider a
two-month moratorium on its uranium-enrichment program, but other
Iranian officials denied that. Although both sides were unwilling to
give many details about the talks, there were suggestions that Iran
might be willing to suspend its uranium-enrichment program if
negotiations on the package were to start. The US, however, might not
accept the idea.

Iraq
4) Deal on a Constitution for Iraq Is Teetering
In Iraq, Tension Over Charter
Richard A. Oppel Jr. and Abdul Razzaq Al-Saiedi, New York Times,
September 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/world/middleeast/11iraq.html
An agreement struck 11 months ago by Shiite and Kurdish leaders to win
Sunni Arab support for a new constitution is fraying, causing concern
among some political leaders that it could jeopardize Iraq's fragile
governing coalition. The dispute peaked Sunday as a large Shiite
faction continued to fight for quick approval of legislation giving
provinces authority to create autonomous states, which some powerful
Shiites are seeking for southern Iraq. Lawmakers oppose to the
proposal boycotted Parliament Sunday, and warned that the plan could
severely undermine the country's unity government. Shiite lawmakers
said Sunday they had reached an agreement to delay debate on the
proposal until Sept. 19. But hours later that agreement had fallen
apart.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic
Revolution in Iraq, wants legislation to establish a mechanism for
provinces to start the process of creating semi-independent states.
The new regions would have wide powers to control their own security
and petroleum resources. Over the weekend, Hakim renewed his call for
a large autonomous region in southern Iraq that would encompass much
of the country's Shiite population and oil wealth. Kurds in the
northeast already have a semi-autonomous region. The Sunnis fear that
approval of such legislation would strip them of their rightful share
of the country's petroleum revenue. The Sunnis accuse some Shiite
leaders of breaking a promise last year in exchange for Sunni support
for the constitution to follow through on a constitutional requirement
to allow Parliament to renegotiate the issue.

5) Situation Called Dire in West Iraq
Anbar Is Lost Politically, Marine Analyst Says
Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, Monday, September 11, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/10/AR2006091001204.html
The chief of intelligence for the Marine Corps in Iraq recently filed
an unusual secret report concluding that the prospects for securing
that country's western Anbar province are dim and that there is almost
nothing the U.S. military can do to improve the political and social
situation there, said several military officers and intelligence
officials familiar with its contents. One Army officer summarized it
as arguing that in Anbar province, "We haven't been defeated
militarily but we have been defeated politically -- and that's where
wars are won and lost."

The report says that there are no functioning Iraqi government
institutions in Anbar, leaving a vacuum that has been filled by the
insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq, which has become the province's most
significant political force, said the Army officer.. Another person
familiar with the report said it describes Anbar as beyond repair; a
third said it concludes that the US has lost in Anbar.

6) Sadr, a Question Mark Etched in Black
Response to Shiite Cleric's Evolving Role Has Become a Core Challenge
for U.S. in Iraq Sudarsan Raghavan & Ellen Knickmeyer, Washington
Post, September 11, 2006; A10
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/10/AR2006091000953.html
Though Moqtada al-Sadr and his followers hold more seats in Iraq's
parliament than any other faction, their attitude toward the U.S.-led
occupation remains belligerent. They participate in government, but
remain outsiders, keenly aware that their authority is derived from
their independence and their opposition to the occupation. The
evolution of Sadr from populist cleric to guerrilla leader to
political kingmaker is emerging as a core challenge to U.S. visions of
stability in Iraq. Once dismissed by Bush administration officials and
U.S. generals as irrelevant to Iraq's future, Sadr is increasingly
seen as a man who has the power to either implode Iraq or keep it
together, even as his militia continues to defy the authority of the
Iraqi government and its U.S. backers.

"There's not a military solution … to Moqtada al-Sadr," a senior
coalition official said. "We may be a bit uncomfortable with his
position as a legitimate political figure, but he is a legitimate
player." Sadr controls four ministries. All of Sadr's portfolios
revolve around providing key services, such as health and
transportation. They give him the ability to funnel resources to
supportive constituents and boost his popular base.

7) More Americans Upset with Loss of Life in Iraq
Angus Reid Global Scan : Polls & Research, September 11, 2006
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/13101
Many adults in the US are disappointed with the way the coalition
effort is progressing, according to a poll by Zogby International. 58
per cent of respondents believe the war in Iraq has not been worth the
loss of American lives, up two points since August.

8) As violence escalates, so does talk of a divided Iraq
An idea to redraw the map to give religious and ethnic groups more
autonomy gains traction in Iraq and US.
Howard LaFranchi, Christian Science Monitor, September 11, 2006
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0911/p02s01-usfp.html
A small but apparently growing number of Iraq experts believe
dissolution of the country is inevitable. Others say a united Iraq may
still be possible, but suggest other solutions - including a redrawn
Iraq - would eventually make the Middle East more stable. Still others
say the US should face reality and help create the new Iraq that is
already splintering along sectarian and ethnic lines. But where many
specialists agree is that the Bush administration is not planning
ahead sufficiently for the curveballs that continuing sectarian and
religious conflict might have in store for the US in terms of Iraq's
final architecture.

Palestine
9) Abbas: Fatah, Hamas Agree to Form Gov't
Associated Press, Monday, September 11, 2006; 9:17 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/11/AR2006091100237.html
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Monday his Fatah party and
the ruling Hamas party have agreed to form a coalition government, a
move Palestinians hope will ease crippling international sanctions.
Later, Palestinian TV reported that Abbas would dissolve the Hamas-led
Cabinet within 48 hours. No details were released on provisions of the
agreement, but it was said to be based on a proposal that implies
recognition of Israel. Western nations and Israel have been
withholding hundreds of millions of dollars from the government after
Hamas swept January parliamentary elections. They demand Hamas disarm,
recognize Israel and accept existing peace agreements.

Afghanistan
10) Suicide Bomber Kills a Governor in Afghanistan
Carlotta Gall, New York Times, September 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/world/asia/11afghan.html
A provincial governor and close friend of President Hamid Karzai was
killed along with two staff members by a suicide bomber as they drove
away from the governor's office on Sunday. The governor is the
highest-ranking official to be killed since the Taliban began a
campaign of suicide bombings last year, especially singling out senior
government officials. At least two other governors and the chairman of
the upper house of Parliament have narrowly escaped death in similar
attacks. The bombings have come at a furious rate this year, with 47
so far, including the suicide attack that killed 14 Afghan civilians
and two American soldiers in the capital on Friday. They have unnerved
the public and Mr. Karzai's government, raising fears of an Iraq-style
escalation of violence in large cities.

11) Afghan Experiment Marked by Progress And Disillusionment
Pamela Constable, Washington Post, Monday, September 11, 2006; A09
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/10/AR2006091000954.html
Since late 2001, this country of 25 million people has undergone an
ambitious experiment, backed by international troops, expertise and
aid, to bring modern democracy to an impoverished, deeply conservative
Muslim society. On some levels, there has been remarkable progress:
presidential and parliamentary elections, a new constitution, a new
national army and greater freedoms for women. In poor but stable
communities such as Karabagh, halting social and economic gains have
been made: a part-time nurse in a clinic, carpets in a school where
students once crouched on concrete, a grape harvest that is
approaching half the pre-Taliban crop. But in the southern provinces
that spawned the Taliban movement, open warfare has resumed after four
years of relative quiet.

Insurgents are battling NATO troops and employing suicide bombs.
Thousands of villagers have fled their homes, to escape both insurgent
violence and NATO airstrikes. Schools have shut down, and development
projects have stopped. At the same time, opium poppy cultivation,
virtually wiped out by the Taliban, has soared to record levels,
largely in the south. Nationwide it increased by 59 percent in the
past year alone, according to new U.N. figures. Drug traffickers have
formed protective alliances with the Islamic insurgents.

Bolivia
12) Bolivia sees anti-reform protests
BBC News, Saturday, 9 September 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5328900.stm
Opposition leaders in Bolivia's wealthier eastern regions say a
one-day strike in protest at plans to re-write the constitution was a
huge success. But the government said the stoppage was a political
failure, because support was limited to the east. The action was
widely seen as the biggest challenge yet to the authority of President
Evo Morales. The strikers are objecting to plans to allow a
constituent assembly to amend the charter by simple majority vote. A
power struggle between Bolivia's wealthier, white elite - which
opposes the changes - and its indigenous majority is at the heart of
the row.

One of the central demands of the mass social movements which helped
get Morales elected was that Bolivia's constitution be rewritten.
Indigenous activists say the charter entrenches the dominance of the
non-indigenous elite. Morales established the constituent assembly in
August, but lacks the support of two-thirds of delegates he needs to
push through changes. He wants each article to be passed by a simple
majority, with two-thirds support needed only to ratify the final
document, while the opposition accuses the government of changing the
rules illegally.

Philippines
13) 4 Marines to Begin Defense in Rape Trial in Philippines
Seth Mydans, New York Times, September 11, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/world/asia/11philippines.html
The trial of four marines charged in the case has become the latest
focus of long-standing nationalist resentments that jostle with
feelings of affection here in America's former colony. For many here,
the marines and their accuser have come to symbolize more than a
century of American domination of the Philippines, both before and
after it was granted independence in 1946. "A rape is not only a crime
against a person; it is also a crime of power, of unequal relations
between victim and victimizer," said The Philippine Daily Inquirer.
"The fact that the alleged rapists are American soldiers, running wild
inside a former American naval base, makes their American-ness, in the
context of our country's own history, an inescapable reality."

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Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming
U.S. foreign policy so that it reflects the values and interests of
the majority of Americans.