[Peace-discuss] The Jewish vote…

[Morton K. Brussel]

Interesting article by Jim Lobe about a poll of Jewish U.S voters,  
anti-war relative with respect to Iran but hawkish relative to the  
Palestinians. Schizoid?

  	
December 13, 2007
US Jews Tilt Rightwards on Israel
by Jim Lobe

US Jews appear to have become more opposed both to Israel's making  
key concessions in renewed peace talks with Palestinians and to the  
US carrying out a military attack against Iran's nuclear facilities,  
according to the latest in an annual series of surveys of Jewish  
opinion released here this week by the American Jewish Committee (AJC).

The poll, which was carried out during November before the formal  
resumption of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks in Annapolis late last  
month, also found continued skepticism in the Jewish community over  
both the war in Iraq and the "war on terror" as conducted by the  
administration of President George W. Bush.

Moreover, a growing majority of Jews identify themselves as Democrats  
– 58 percent compared to 54 percent in October 2006 – while only 15  
percent said they considered themselves Republicans, the same  
percentage as 14 months ago, on the eve of the Democratic sweep of  
the mid-term elections.

Fifty-three percent said they had a favorable opinion of Sen. Hillary  
Clinton, the front-runner in the 2008 race for the Democratic  
presidential nomination, compared to 38 percent of respondents who  
said they held positive views of the two other leading contenders,  
Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards.

On the other hand, all of the current Republican presidential  
candidates, with the exception of former New York Mayor Rudy  
Giuliani, are viewed more negatively than positively by strong  
pluralities of Jewish voters. On Giuliani, the current Republican  
front-runner in national polls, Jewish voters were split: 41 percent  
said they had favorable views; 38 percent said their opinions were  
unfavorable.

The survey, which covers a wide range of views held by the nation's  
roughly six million Jewish citizens, comes at a critical moment both  
with respect to the Middle East and the next year's presidential  
elections.

While Jews make up only about two percent of the US population, their  
exceptionally high rate of voter participation gives them almost  
twice the voting power.

In addition to solidly Democratic New York and California, their  
numbers are also concentrated in several "swing" states, including  
Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Florida, and Illinois, that could  
very likely decide a close election next year.

Moreover, funding by Jewish donors of Democratic Party candidates is  
traditionally highly significant, accounting, for example, for as  
much as one half of all campaign contributions received by Democratic  
candidates to the Senate in the last election cycle.

The very well-endowed Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC), a group of  
mainly pro-Likud and neoconservative donors, is also likely to play a  
strong role in next year's election. Several RJC leaders helped found  
Freedom's Watch, a group that is expected to spend as much as 200  
million dollars over the next year to promote Bush's "war on terror"  
and more hawkish policies directed against Iran and other perceived  
threats to Israel's security.

That may prove a hard sell to the Jewish community, at least  
according to most of the new survey's results. For example, two- 
thirds of US Jews now believe that Washington should not have gone to  
war in Iraq – up two percentage points from 14 months ago – and 76  
percent believe that US efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq  
are going either "somewhat" or "very" badly.

As for the threat posed by Iran – which is expected to be a major  
foreign policy focus of the Republican presidential campaign,  
particularly if Giuliani wins the nomination – only 35 percent of US  
Jews said they would support "the United States taking military  
action against Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons,"  
while 57 percent said they would oppose such a move.

Those findings are striking both because 59 percent of Jewish  
respondents said they are "very concerned" about the prospect of Iran  
obtaining nuclear weapons and because they represent a further  
erosion of Jewish support for military action compared to previous  
years.

The poll was taken before last week's publication of the latest  
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) which found that Iran had  
suspended its alleged nuclear weapons program in 2003 and is unlikely  
to be able to build a weapon before 2010 at the earliest.

Thus, in the 2005 survey, 49 percent of Jewish Americans said they  
would support military action, while 46 percent said they would  
oppose it. Last year, 54 percent said they would oppose such action,  
while 38 percent said they would oppose it.

If the Jewish community has become more dovish on Iran and Iraq,  
however, it has also become more skeptical about Israeli-Arab peace  
efforts and a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Fifty-five percent said they believe that negotiations between  
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority  
President Mahmoud Abbas "cannot lead to peace in the foreseeable  
future." Three out of four respondents said Israel could not achieve  
peace with a Palestinian government led by Hamas, which currently  
controls the Gaza Strip.

In a more stunning result, only 46 percent of respondents said they  
favor the establishment of a Palestinian state, while 43 percent said  
they oppose it.

In 2004, 57 percent of respondents said they supported the  
establishment of Palestinian state. Last year's survey still found  
majority support – 54 percent for a Palestinian states, and 38  
percent opposed.

Asked whether in the framework of a permanent peace accord, Israel  
should be willing to compromise on the status of Jerusalem as a  
united city under Israeli jurisdiction, 58 percent of respondents  
replied negatively this year. Last year, only 52 percent were against  
such a compromise, which most analysts, including Olmert's deputy  
prime minister, Haim Ramon, consider essential to achieving a final  
peace agreement.

These more hawkish views on Israeli-Palestinian ties clearly reflect  
the views not only of Jewish Republicans, which would not be  
surprising, but other, more liberal and Democratic members of the  
Jewish community as well. Forty-three percent of respondents defined  
themselves as liberal, 31 percent as "moderate," and 25 percent as  
conservative.

Still, "support for Israel" ranked relatively low among the issues  
which respondents said would be most important to them in deciding  
how to cast their votes next year. Asked to choose among nine  
different issues, 23 percent named the economy and jobs as their top  
issue; 19 percent opted for health care; 16 percent cited Iraq; and  
14 percent, "terrorism and national security". Along with immigration  
and the energy crisis, support for Israel was named as the most  
important issue by only six percent of all respondents.

(Inter Press Service)

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