[Peace-discuss] N-G letter attacks Lancet study

[Stuart Levy]

On Tue, Sep 11, 2007 at 01:51:10PM -0500, Robert Naiman wrote:
> As I understand it, under News-Gazette rules I can't respond for 16
> days. Anyone want to take a crack at this? I can provide all the
> data...


I've finally submitted a letter in response:


Estimates of many hundreds of thousands dead in Iraq -- excess deaths, of
people dying at rates much higher than before our 2003 invasion -- are widely
dismissed.  Those inclined to disbelieve them should read them: Googling
"lancet iraq" turns up both Lancet studies, estimating 100,000 excess deaths by
mid-2004 and 650,000 by mid-2006.  They interviewed 1800+ households in random
clusters across Iraq, asking who in that household had lived there in 2002, who
had died since, and how.  That search yields commentary on their methods and
uncertainties too, as from GMU's STATS.org.

Cluster sampling is used to estimate things like diabetes incidence -- and
where direct reporting is unreliable, as in the 200,000 estimated dead in
Darfur.  Our government has no qualms reporting that figure.

The Lancet numbers are far higher than press reports, but that is no surprise:
journalists are few, and fewer report from dangerous areas.

Many deaths are caused by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence (about 1/3rd due to Coalition
action), but remember: we invaded an oppressed but stable country, where
suicide bombings were unknown, and turned it into a place of violent conflict,
with something like a million people killed and four million displaced.

An early-2007 study from ORB market research found that over 1/4th of Iraqi
adults had had a relative murdered in the last three years.  How would we feel
if an invading country, even one claiming to save us from tyranny, had such an
effect in the US?  Can our consciences bear this burden?

   Stuart