[Peace-discuss] N-G letter attacks Lancet study

[Laurie at advancenet.net]

Stuart,

> Estimates of many hundreds of thousands dead in Iraq -- excess deaths,
> of people dying at rates much higher than before our 2003 invasion -- are
> widely dismissed.  Those inclined to disbelieve them should read them:

The letter is a good one; but unfortunately those who are inclined to
disbelieve them or what you have written are not likely to Google the
studies or read them - much less change their minds.  You are attacking
belief system and not merely disputing facts.

> How would we feel if an invading country, even one claiming to save us
from tyranny,  > had such an effect in the US?  

We would be hypocritical and respond with irrational violence, resistance,
defiance, and rebellion just as the people of Iraq are doing, claiming that
our actions are legitimate while their similar actions towards us are
illegitimate; we would hate them and carry that hatred for decades after the
incidences has passed into history (just look at attitudes revolving around
the US civil war and Vietnam) just as the Iraq population might.

> Can our consciences bear this burden?

For those whom you are attempting to persuade, this does not even enter
their consciences so it represents no burden to them. It is the old story of
"when it happens to them, it is comedy; when it happens to me, it is
tragedy."





> -----Original Message-----
> From: peace-discuss-bounces at lists.chambana.net [mailto:peace-discuss-
> bounces at lists.chambana.net] On Behalf Of Stuart Levy
> Sent: Thursday, September 20, 2007 4:54 PM
> To: Peace Discuss
> Subject: Re: [Peace-discuss] N-G letter attacks Lancet study
> 
> On Tue, Sep 11, 2007 at 01:51:10PM -0500, Robert Naiman wrote:
> > As I understand it, under News-Gazette rules I can't respond for 16
> > days. Anyone want to take a crack at this? I can provide all the
> > data...
> 
> 
> I've finally submitted a letter in response:
> 
> 
> Estimates of many hundreds of thousands dead in Iraq -- excess deaths,
> of
> people dying at rates much higher than before our 2003 invasion -- are
> widely
> dismissed.  Those inclined to disbelieve them should read them:
> Googling
> "lancet iraq" turns up both Lancet studies, estimating 100,000 excess
> deaths by
> mid-2004 and 650,000 by mid-2006.  They interviewed 1800+ households in
> random
> clusters across Iraq, asking who in that household had lived there in
> 2002, who
> had died since, and how.  That search yields commentary on their
> methods and
> uncertainties too, as from GMU's STATS.org.
> 
> Cluster sampling is used to estimate things like diabetes incidence --
> and
> where direct reporting is unreliable, as in the 200,000 estimated dead
> in
> Darfur.  Our government has no qualms reporting that figure.
> 
> The Lancet numbers are far higher than press reports, but that is no
> surprise:
> journalists are few, and fewer report from dangerous areas.
> 
> Many deaths are caused by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence (about 1/3rd due to
> Coalition
> action), but remember: we invaded an oppressed but stable country,
> where
> suicide bombings were unknown, and turned it into a place of violent
> conflict,
> with something like a million people killed and four million displaced.
> 
> An early-2007 study from ORB market research found that over 1/4th of
> Iraqi
> adults had had a relative murdered in the last three years.  How would
> we feel
> if an invading country, even one claiming to save us from tyranny, had
> such an
> effect in the US?  Can our consciences bear this burden?
> 
>    Stuart
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