[Peace-discuss] Poll on Attitudes Toward US in Arab World

[C. G. Estabrook]

I think this is generally accurate (but not about Kennedy -- see Tim 
Weiner's book on the CIA for a recent account), but remember that the 
major oil companies were hesitant about the Iraq invasion.  They had a 
pretty good deal beforehand and were afraid the Bush administration 
would mess it up (and it's not clear that they haven't). It's still 
true, as the old man in the British Museum remarked in his youth, that 
the government is the "executive committee of the bourgeoisie," rather 
than the instrument of any one part of it.  Current Iraq policy is part 
of long-term US strategy.

But I do think McCain would be worth voting against, where it might 
matter (it won't in Illinois), though I don't think we can be sure about 
what any one of them might do in office -- part of Bush's appeal was his 
opposition to "nation-building" -- except that each would continue to 
support the general USG war policy in the ME, insofar as s/he is not 
deterred by the US populace.

The general Democratic lying about he matter was on display on TV last 
night: the awful Joe Biden (who "opposes" the war in the same way as the 
Dem candidates -- i.e., as a stick to beat the Republicans with) 
explained that the notion that the Iraq war had anything to do with oil 
was a "conspiracy theory" (i.e., ipso facto false).  As VP or SOS, he'll 
be free to pursue the policy while obfuscating it, absent substantial 
understanding and opposition from the people at large (and foreign 
resistance). --CGE


n.dahlheim at mchsi.com wrote:
> Mort, I think McCain is the worst of the three remaining contenders,
> but only barely squeaks by the icy Hillary Clinton in this regard.
> The edge to McCain in this regard is razor-thin.  That said, if the
> ruling class has decided to go to war with Iran to stave off the
> coming financial crash, I think whoever occupies the Presidency will
> be an afterthought----whether it is a Dem or a Rep will only affect
> the marketing strategy.  I mean the US President is really only a
> figurehead---Cheney (with the help of Rumsfeld who still lurks behind
> the scenes and Condi Rice who adds to the glacial chill of the power-
>  maniacal Bush Administration) and his ilk keep the show running at
> the service of the major interests like Big Oil, the
> military-industrial complex, and Wall Street that back the
> Administration.  If the President deviates from the required plan (as
> JFK did with his failure to provide air cover for the Bay of Pigs,
> failure to escalate Vietnam as rapidly as the more well-placed
> Vietnam hawks would have liked, and because of concerns over the drug
> regimen required to manage his declining health), the President is
> taken out and replaced by another face.   That's just the way things
> are----elections won't change this fundamental reality----the elite
> win no matter what.  McCain, Obama, Hillary, et. al..   The elite 
> will get the candidate they want by managing the media circus and PR
> posturing that now counts as the political campaign...
> 
> 
> ----------------------  Original Message:  --------------------- 
> From:    "Brussel Morton K." <mkbrussel at comcast.net> To:
> n.dahlheim at mchsi.com Subject: Re: [Peace-discuss] Poll on Attitudes
> Toward US in Arab World Date:    Wed, 16 Apr 2008 03:56:11 +0000
> 
>> Nick,
>> 
>> Thanks for your comment.
>> 
>> I do think that if McCain would win the election, it will be far 
>> worse over-all than if Obama wins---if he's the Dem candidate.
>> Obama is miserable in his foreign policy statements, but one is
>> uncertain as to what he's likely to do---much less uncertain then
>> with McCain and Clinton, and in uncertainty , there's a degree of
>> hope. Just a thought.
>> 
>> Mort
>> 
>> On Apr 15, 2008, at 9:05 PM, n.dahlheim at mchsi.com wrote:
>> 
>>> Mort, I found it absolutely fascinating that 1/3 of Arab
>>> respondents thought US Mideast policy would be the same
>>> regardless of who assumes the US Presidency...  I think the rest
>>> of the world is more aware of the neoliberal consensus and
>>> imperialsit drive behind US foreign policy than most Americans 
>>> are...  As for me, I am not voting---I predict war with Iran by
>>> 2009 regardless of who's president. Nick
>>> 
>>> 
>>> ----------------------  Original Message:  --------------------- 
>>> From:    "Brussel Morton K." <mkbrussel at comcast.net> To:
>>> Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at anti-war.net> Subject:
>>> [Peace-discuss] Poll on Attitudes Toward US in Arab World Date:
>>> Wed, 16 Apr 2008 01:47:22 +0000
>>> 
>>>> Poll results:
>>>> 
>>>>  April 15, 2008 Attitudes Toward US Worsen in Arab World by Jim
>>>> Lobe
>>>> 
>>>> Despite renewed U.S. efforts to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian
>>>> peace agreement this year, popular views of the United States
>>>> in the Arab world have actually worsened since 2006, according
>>>> to a major new survey [.pdf] of public opinion in six Arab
>>>> states.
>>>> 
>>>> Nearly two-thirds, or 64 percent, of more than 4,000
>>>> respondents in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia
>>>> and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said they held a "very
>>>> unfavorable" attitude of the United States, up from 57 percent
>>>> in late 2006, while 19 percent more said their views were
>>>> "somewhat unfavorable" – roughly comparable to the results of
>>>> 17 months ago.
>>>> 
>>>> At the same time, support for Iran and its nuclear program
>>>> appears to have risen over the same period, according to the
>>>> new survey, the sixth in a series designed by University of
>>>> Maryland Prof. Shibley Telhami and carried out by Zogby
>>>> International since 2002.
>>>> 
>>>> The poll found that two-thirds of the Arab public (67 percent) 
>>>> believes Tehran has the right to pursue its nuclear program and
>>>> that international pressure to freeze it should cease. That
>>>> compares to 61 percent who took the same position in 2006.
>>>> 
>>>> Remarkably, nearly three out of four Saudi respondents said
>>>> that if Iran acquired nuclear weapons, it would have a
>>>> "positive" influence on the region, while 51 percent of UAE
>>>> respondents agreed. Pluralities in Morocco and Egypt took the
>>>> same position, while pluralities of roughly one-third in
>>>> Lebanon and Jordan said Tehran's acquisition of a nuclear
>>>> weapon would make no difference.
>>>> 
>>>> The new survey also found that fears regarding both U.S. and
>>>> Israeli designs in the region have also increased over the past
>>>> 17 months, despite the length of time that has passed since the
>>>> summer 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, which inflamed anti-Israeli
>>>> and anti-Western opinion throughout the region.
>>>> 
>>>> Asked to name two countries that, in their view, posed the
>>>> "biggest threat" to them, a whopping 95 percent and 88 percent
>>>> of respondents named Israel and the U.S., respectively. That
>>>> compared to 85 percent and 72 percent, respectively, in late
>>>> 2006.
>>>> 
>>>> By comparison, the sense of threat posed by Iran appears to
>>>> have diminished over the same period. While 11 percent of Arab
>>>> respondents named Iran as one of the two greatest threats in
>>>> late 2006, only seven percent did so in the most recent survey.
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> The survey, which was conducted in all six countries last
>>>> month, is certain to be greeted with considerable dismay here
>>>> in the U.S. capital where policymakers had been cheered by some
>>>> recent polling. One 23-nation survey released by BBC earlier
>>>> this month suggested that Washington's image around the globe
>>>> had bottomed out last year and that the greater emphasis the
>>>> George W. Bush administration has placed on diplomacy, rather
>>>> than war and military threats, during its second term, as well
>>>> as reduced violence in Iraq, had begun to pay off, at least in
>>>> public diplomacy terms.
>>>> 
>>>> But Telhami's annual Arab public opinion poll is highly
>>>> regarded among Arabist scholars and public opinion specialists
>>>> here who note that its consistency of methodology and questions
>>>> over an unusually long period of time has given it considerable
>>>> credibility. Telhami, an expert on Arab media, holds the Anwar
>>>> Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the University of
>>>> Maryland and serves as a senior fellow at the Saban Center for
>>>> Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, a major think
>>>> tank here.
>>>> 
>>>> The survey found that while views on some issues varied among
>>>> the six countries, cynicism about U.S. motivations and policies
>>>> was fairly consistent. Eighty percent said their views of the
>>>> U.S. are formed more by U.S. "policies" than by U.S. "values" –
>>>> up from 70 percent who took that position in 2006.
>>>> 
>>>> Nearly two-thirds of respondents (65 percent) said they don't
>>>> believe that democracy is a real objective in the region, while
>>>> 20 percent said it is an important objective but Washington is
>>>> going about it the wrong way.
>>>> 
>>>> A 36-percent plurality said they did not believe reports that 
>>>> violence in Iraq has been significantly reduced over the past
>>>> year, while 31 percent said any reduction of violence that has
>>>> been achieved has little to do with the "surge" of U.S. forces
>>>> there and that, in any event, it was only a matter of time
>>>> before violence increases. Only 6 percent of respondents said
>>>> they believed the surge was working and would enhance the
>>>> chances of a stable political settlement.
>>>> 
>>>> Asked what they believe would happen if the U.S. quickly
>>>> withdrew its forces, 61 percent said Iraqis would find a way to
>>>> bridge their differences – up from 44 percent in 2006. Only 15
>>>> percent said civil war in Iraq would expand rapidly, down from
>>>> 24 percent in 2006.
>>>> 
>>>> Respondents in Lebanon (88 percent), Jordan (87 percent), and
>>>> Saudi Arabia (66 percent) were particularly optimistic that
>>>> Iraqis would reach a peaceful settlement if the U.S. withdrew
>>>> its forces quickly.
>>>> 
>>>> Overall, four out of five respondents said they believe that
>>>> Iraqis are worse off as a result of the U.S. invasion. Only two
>>>> percent said they believed that Iraqis were better off.
>>>> 
>>>> The survey found a sharp rise in the percentage of respondents,
>>>>  particularly in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who identified the 
>>>> Palestinian cause as among their three most important public
>>>> issues. Eight-six percent of all respondents named Palestine in
>>>> that context, up from 77 percent in 2006 and 69 percent in
>>>> 2005.
>>>> 
>>>> At the same time, however, a growing majority was found to be 
>>>> increasingly pessimistic about prospects for a two-state
>>>> solution based on Israel's 1967 borders. Fifty-five percent
>>>> overall said they believe the collapse of prospects for such a
>>>> solution will likely lead to a state of "intense conflict for
>>>> years to come." Views on the conflict were especially
>>>> pessimistic in Lebanon and Jordan.
>>>> 
>>>> Asked which U.S. presidential candidate would have the best
>>>> chance to advance peace in the Middle East, Democratic Sen.
>>>> Barack Obama gained the most backing with 18 percent, followed
>>>> by Sen. Hillary Clinton (13 percent), and John McCain (4
>>>> percent). But 20 percent of respondents said they weren't
>>>> following the U.S. elections, and a plurality of 32 percent
>>>> said the policy will be the same regardless of who is elected.
>>>> 
>>>> Asked to identify which foreign leader they admired the most, 
>>>> respondents generally volunteered those most outspokenly
>>>> defiant of Israel and the U.S. The most popular was Hezbollah
>>>> leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was named by 26 percent of
>>>> respondents, up from 14 percent 17 months ago. Second-ranked
>>>> was Syrian President Bashar al- Assad at 16 percent, up from
>>>> just 2 percent in 2006.
>>>> 
>>>> Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came up third with 10
>>>> percent of respondents, up from 4 percent in 2006, while
>>>> al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden was cited by 6 percent of
>>>> respondents, up from 4 percent. Al-Qaeda also appeared to
>>>> receive a somewhat more sympathetic response among respondents
>>>> than in late 2006.
>>>> 
>>>> Asked what aspect of the group, if any, they sympathize with
>>>> the most, one-third of respondents told interviewers then that
>>>> they "do not sympathize at all with this organization." Only 21
>>>> percent took that position in the latest poll.
>>>> 
>>>> (Inter Press Service)