[Peace-discuss] Illinois Congressional elections

[C. G. Estabrook]

[The real story here is the Democrats' unwillingness to run progressive
candidates, especially on the Mideast war, which has cost them seats they might
have won.  The worst example is the 6th CD, where in 2006 a independent anti-war
Democrat was excluded for a candidate hand-picked by the right-wing Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee -- who then proceeded to lose to a Republican
whom the anti-war candidate may well have beaten.  We might also note that the
safety of the Republican seat in the 15th CD comes in part from the fact that
the Democratic party has not contributed to a progressive opponent. Some
two-party system...  --CGE]

House 2008

Illinois-6: Rep. Peter Roskam (R) was a bright spot for Republicans—particularly
for pro-life conservatives—with his slim victory in the brutal year of 2006,
holding onto the seat of retired Rep. Henry Hyde (R). The 6th District, in the
Southwest suburbs of Chicago, was one of the prime battlegrounds of that
election, with disabled Iraq veteran Tammy Duckworth (D) drawing huge support
from Democrats nationwide.

Democrats had hoped Duckworth would run again this year, but by the summer of
2007, when she was serving as the state's veterans affairs director, she decided
against a rematch. That left Roskam mostly safe. As of June 30, Roskam had
outraised his opponent, Iraq veteran Jill Morganthaler (D), $1.8 million to half
a million dollars.

Considering Roskam beat a better-funded top-tier candidate in 2006, it's hard to
imagine how he could lose to a lesser candidate with less money. It would take a
serious Roskam error or quite a Democratic tsunami for Roskam to lose. Likely
Republican Retention.

Illinois-8: Republicans have probably missed their chance to win back Rep. Phil
Crane's (R) former district in the Northern suburbs of Chicago. Although Rep.
Melissa Bean (D) will have to work hard to win a third term, she is the strong
favorite.

Republican businessman Steve Greenberg (R) can't compete with Bean's money, or
name recognition. At the end of June, Bean had a staggering 16-to-1 advantage in
terms of cash-on-hand.

Nationwide, the Democratic sweep of upper-middle-class suburbia is not
reversible in the forseeable future. This seat, long held by a conservative
Republican, is now a Democratic seat. Leaning Democratic Retention.

Illinois-10: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) may never have an easy reelection in this
wealthy North Shore suburban district. While the district has been in Republican
hands since it was first drawn in its current form in 1982, it is the very model
of the Democrats' suburban takeover targets. Most households in Kirk's district
earn higher than $78,000, making the median household in Kirk's district 62%
wealthier than the median household in the U.S. The median home is worth more
than $400,000—double the national median. The district is 81% white and 7.4% Asian.

While suburbs on Chicago's Southside, such as Roskam's district, are more
working-class, and more conservative, Northside suburbs like Winnetka and
Deerfield in Kirk's district are different. To put it in overly simplified
terms: White Sox fans are pro-life, while Cubs fans are not. In Kirk's favor, he
is basically a proverbial “Cubs Fan” himself, amassing a fairly moderate voting
record.

After a narrow win in his first election in 2000, Kirk cruised through his 2002
and 2004 reelects before having to fight for his job in 2006. Businessman Dan
Seals (D) held Kirk to 53% two years ago, and he's come back for a rematch.
While Obama will win this district, it's hard to imagine his driving turnout any
more than a presidential year normally does. Kirk as of June 30 had doubled
Seals' fundraising with an impressive $3.9 million.

While this seat will go Democratic at some point, Kirk looks fine this year.
Leaning Republican Retention.

Illinois-11: The race to fill the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R)
promises to be Illinois' hot contest of 2008. Democrats have nominated state
Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D) while Republicans, after some fits
and starts, have settled on concrete-maker Martin Ozinga (R).

The district lies South of Chicago, along the Indiana border, and then runs
along I-80 two-thirds of the way across the state. In recent history tilts
slightly Republican, and is closer demographically to Roskam's district than to
Kirk's. The 11th is also largely rural. All other things being equal, the
Republican would have an advantage here.

But all other things are not equal. Ozinga got a late start because Republicans
originally nominated New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman (R), who quickly dropped out
when his hatred of fundraising proved disqualifying. Republican committee
chairman gathered, and, as parties often do when scrambling for an emergency
candidate, they chose the guy with money.

Two question marks hang over Ozinga's candidacy, and both are tied to the fact
that he has donated to Democrats in Illinois: First, will conservatives, who
first backed the alternatives to Ozinga, line up behind the establishment's
pick? Second, is Ozinga tainted with the corruption of Chicago Mayor Richard
Daley (D) or Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D)? Republicans, sometimes in
criticism and sometimes in defense, argue that Ozinga was paying political
protection money—that giving to Democrats is the cost of doing business in the
corrupt world of Illinois.

Ozinga's problems don't stop there. He's a carpet-bagger, not really from the
district, and he was hit for being late on some property taxes. Halvorson hardly
has a clean record herself. She has the same political mentor as Obama:
patronage politician Emil Jones, the Senate president. As chairman of the Ethics
Committee, she helped block an ethics reform measure this year (aimed at
limiting campaign contributions of major state contractors), but then gave up
her gavel, allegedly to avoid getting heat about this during her congressional race.

With Halvorson so steeped in the Democratic establishment, and with corruption
scandals, indictments, and impeachment threats plaguing both of the Democrats'
power centers (indictments of dozens of Daley aides in Chicago, and the world
crashing around Blagojevich in Springfield), Ozinga is having some luck running
as an outsider. “I am not a politician,” his signs, ads, and website blare. It's
almost a page out of the book of 14th District candidate Jim Oberweis (R, see
below), but for Ozinga, it seems to be working.

Another question: Does Weller's shadow hang over this district? Certainly, the
outgoing incumbent has done little to ensure the district would stay in GOP
hands after his retirement. Also, Weller leaves under a cloud of scandal.
Ozinga's distance from Weller is a boon.

While across the country 2008 will be bad for Republicans, and while Illinois's
favorite son, Barack Obama, is atop the ballot this fall, Election Day in
Illinois could prove to be a GOP triumph. Ozinga's race might be the bellwether
for the state. Early poll numbers are encouraging for Halvorson, though. Keep an
eye on this one. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Illinois-14: The 14th District of Illinois is emblematic of Republicans'
national problems. Four-term U.S. Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), after years
of failed GOP promises about limiting government and curbing spending, resigned
early, apparently in order to advance his lobbying career.

Dairy millionaire Jim Oberweis (R) came out overconfident after a bitter GOP
primary, and lost the special election this spring to liberal scientist Bill
Foster (D). The question now is: Can Oberweis rebound and beat Congressman
Foster in November?

This is Oberweis's fifth try for elected office, after losing primaries for U.S.
Senate twice, for governor once, and losing the special election March. He has
near total name recognition in the district, thanks in part to his company's ice
cream. Given this high profile, his effort to remake his image by November is a
tall order.

Oberweis's first step is patch things up with other Republicans in his district.
Namely, his scorched-earth primary victory over state Sen. Chris Lauzen (R) has
left Lauzen bitter and many Republican activists turned off. While the Lauzen
backers who stayed home from the special election will show up in November,
Oberweis won't have access to many of the phone-bankers and door-knockers that
this district otherwise could provide.

Foster, meanwhile, scored a coup by winning increased federal funding for the
Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory in the district.

Until Oberweis shows he is successfully remaking his image, Foster is the strong
favorite. Leaning Democratic Retention.

Illinois-18: State Rep. Aaron Schock (R) is in line to replace retiring Rep. Ray
LaHood (R). The 27-year-old phenom has heavily outraised former TV reporter
Colleen Callahan (D), and massively outspent her. A hustling politician and a
conservative farm boy in a conservative rural district, Schock would need to
make a major misstep in order to lose here. Likely Republican Retention.
[This is the guy Wayne's been telling us about.  --CGE]

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=28029