[Peace-discuss] Geopolitical machinations

[Brussel Morton K.]

Interesting analysis of the Georgia/Ruassian/USA conflict.

The Saakashvili Experiment
August 23, 2008
By Ramzy Baroud


Ramzy Baroud's ZSpace Page

Join ZSpace



Just as the world's attention was focussed on China's Beijing  
Olympics, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, on 7 August,  
invaded the tiny breakaway province of South Ossetia. The initial  
attack on the South Ossetian capital, Tskninvali, soon extended to an  
all out war, which eventually invited Russia's wrath, and the death  
of thousands of innocent civilians on both sides.

Prior to Saakashvili's war, little was known about the political  
specifics of that area and the brewing decades-long territorial  
disputes which date back to the early 20th century, highlighted  
during an intense civil war that followed the break-up of the Soviet  
Union and its satellite states. Georgia's successful secession from  
the Soviet grip, understandably, inspired independence fervour in  
ethnic regions within Georgia. The small region of South Ossetia --  
majority ethnic Russians and minority Georgians -- sought to join the  
North Ossetian province, which remained part of Russia. Another  
region was Abkhazia, whose protracted fight with the central Georgian  
government has also provoked much violence.

The fact that South Ossetia belongs to Georgia was hardly contested.  
Even Russia has long recognised Georgian sovereignty in that region.  
Russia, nonetheless, remained largely involved in South Ossetia --  
mostly as a "peacekeeping force", rationalising such involvement as  
essential for the national security of the country and the safety of  
its citizens. Most South Ossentians -- like Abkhazians -- hold  
Russian citizenship.

But setting such rationale aside, the fact is that South Ossetia is  
an important component in Russian foreign policy, and particularly  
its policy and attitude towards former Soviet republics and satellite  
states in Eastern Europe. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the  
Cold War was transformed into a political scramble: the US and NATO  
expanded their boundaries of influence and territorial outreach,  
while Russia struggled to maintain a level of influence and halt the  
encroachment of the US-led NATO.

Georgia, situated strategically between Russia, the Black Sea, Turkey  
and Iran, deserved due attention. The US became keenly interested in  
ensuring the inclusion of Georgia into its sphere of influence.  
Through dedicated efforts, a pro-Western leader, Saakashvili, came to  
power through a highly televised "Rose Revolution". While the  
integrity of the elections that followed and the role of the CIA in  
concocting and ensuring the success of the "revolution" are still  
intensely debated, the fact is Georgia fell into a new sphere of  
influence. Saakashvili is a man desperate for European-US validation.  
He too sought NATO membership and heedlessly invited Israeli military  
"specialists" to modernise his country's armed forces in anticipation  
of a battle with Russia.

Evidently, Georgia's leader knew well that a victory against Russia  
was unattainable. By embarking on a war against a tiny province,  
because, as he claimed, he ran out of patience, Saakashvili was  
following a script that was hardly of his own writing. The logic  
behind the war was to test Russia's resolve, and the readiness of its  
newest president, Dmitri Medvedev. A hesitant Russian response would  
be taken as another sign of weakness or lack of political and  
military decisiveness in Moscow, which might also inspire more such  
experiments. Too harsh a response could also be decried as "genocide"  
and war crimes and could be exploited to compel Russia's weaker  
neighbours to seek the protection of NATO.

This is what indeed transpired since Russia called off military  
actions 13 August.

First, leaders of pro-US countries in the region -- namely, Poland,  
Ukraine and the Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia --  
attended a rally in support of Georgia's Saakashvili on 14 August in  
Tbilisi. The televised event was accompanied by a flood of experts  
pedalling Russia's evil intents to the world media while promoting a  
larger US role to ensure the independence of these nations and to  
preserve their fragile democracies. "They're all seriously worried  
that it's Georgia today and one of them tomorrow," surmised Krzysztof  
Bobinski, director of the Warsaw-based Unia & Polska Foundation.

Second, the Russian response to Georgia's war in South Ossetia has  
resulted in a remarkable breakthrough in negotiations between the US  
and East European countries regarding the Bush administration's plans  
for a new missile defence shield. On 14 August, "Poland and the US  
signed a deal to build a controversial missile defence shield in  
Eastern Europe," reported the British Telegraph newspaper. "The  
agreement highlights how Russia's invasion of Georgia has prompted a  
swift reappraisal of the region's security and alliances. The US and  
Poland have been talking about the missile shield for a year but  
rushed to cement their alliance in the wake of this week's conflict."

It's rather interesting how a controversial and unpopular plan that  
has raised the ire of the Polish people -- 70 per cent of the country  
is against it -- was overcome within days of war and is now embraced  
as a necessary deterrent. One cannot help but question the  
relationship between the decision to invade South Ossetia, which was  
certain to compel some Russian response, and the rush to embrace  
Bush's military designs in that region. The plan to place missiles in  
Poland seemed like a resounding failure as late as last month when US  
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice "tried and failed just before  
leaving for Europe on Monday [7 July] to seal a deal to place  
missiles in Poland, the State Department said," according to CNN. Now  
Poland is all for it. It return, Poland would receive US assistance  
in overhauling its military, reminiscent of the Israeli-US efforts in  
aiding Georgia's military, which emboldened the latter to pursue war  
with Russia.

While Russia's decisive response to Saakashvili's war may have  
temporarily reaffirmed Russia's military readiness, it has already  
provided the needed justification for greater US-NATO intervention in  
Georgia, Poland, the Czech Republic and elsewhere. That US presence  
might be welcomed by the unnerved "democratic" leaders of these  
states but it will pique the fury of Russia, whose political radars  
are intercepting the Bush administration's every move in the region  
with great alarm.

The ceasefire between Russia and Georgia, achieved through French  
mediation, will hardly be the end of the new Cold War underway in an  
area too accustomed to cold wars. The fact is that Russia will fight  
to break away from the pro- US ring of former Soviet states that  
promise to undermine its influence in a Eurasia, and the US will do  
its utmost to maintain a level of tension, if not hostilities in the  
region, for without it neither a missile shield nor the 270 billion  
barrels of oil in the Caspian basin can be brought within  
Washington's reach.



-Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net) is an author and editor of  
PalestineChronicle.com. His work has been published in many  
newspapers and journals worldwide. His latest book is The Second  
Palestinian Intifada: A Chronicle of a People's Struggle (Pluto  
Press, London).


  
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://lists.chambana.net/mailman/archive/peace-discuss/attachments/20080823/00d828ab/attachment-0001.htm