[Peace-discuss] The past is prologue

[C. G. Estabrook]

The 20th-century bromide was, "With the Democrats, you get war; with the 
Republicans, recession."  Among the 15 presidential elections since WWII, the 
Democrats could win the presidency when they ran against a Republican recession: 
1960, 1976, 1992; the Republicans could win the presidency when they ran against 
a Democratic war: 1952, 1968, 2000.  Obviously that leaves nine elections when 
the patterns didn't obtain.  But this year they may clash.

Since most Americans today see themselves to be in the midst of a recession, and 
the Republicans control the presidency, 2008 should be like the first set. But 
the Democrats have made the current Mideast war their own: given control of 
Congress in 2006 to end it, they refused to do so.  Obama tried to garner the 
anti-war vote, but it became clear that, far from being opposed to war in the 
Mideast, he was actually calling for more.  McCain can be like Eisenhower in 
1952, Nixon in 1968, and Bush in 2000: while insisting on his patriotism, he can 
condemn the Democrats' handling of the war.   So the 2008 election might be like 
the second set.

Which pattern will prevail?  In 1992, the Democrats said. "It's the economy, 
stupid."  But this time it might be the war. --CGE