[Peace-discuss] bad job losses, worse, and worse still

[Ricky Baldwin]

OK, if you haven't seen this yet, brace yourself; it's worse than expected ...

And, I have to say, these numbers smell ripe for another "upward revision" in my humble book (that's been the trend of late).


Aug. 2008 – 127,000 for the month
Sept. 2008 – 284,000 for the month, incl. 201,000 service
jobs
Oct. 2008 – manufacturing 90,000 cut, leisure & hospitality 16,000 cut, construction 49,000 cut, professional & business services 45,000 cut, retail 38,000 cut, temp jobs 50,800 cut -  200,000
predicted; 240,000 actual for the month; 1.2 million cut for the year(651,000
in the last previous months)Nov. 2008 - Previous announcement: “Private employers cut 250,000 jobs in November, the most in seven years, a
report by a private employment service said on Wednesday,” (Reuters 12-3-08). 
Now this (below).

Some dire predictions had warned in October monthly job losses could hit 300,000
by the end of the month.  Looks like they were optimists.

It's also worth remembering - sorry - that this is *official* unemployment, meaning unemployment
*claims*, which only counts people who are eligible - a category which shrank
notably in the Reagan years, artificially lowering the reported unemployment
rate.  It only includes people who are currently looking for work, but who
have been looking for only a few months (in other words, their benefits haven't
run out yet), they aren't students (even taking one class, even a night class,
even a vocational class), they are 100 percent unemployed (because working even
1 hour a week disqualifies you).  Moreover, they recently had a job, where
they had worked for long enough and enough hours per week to qualify - and they
still only get a fraction of their former pay, from which they paid into the
system (it's unemployment *insurance* after all, not welfare).
 
It doesn't count millions of people who have given up
looking, are working even a little, or who are otherwise "unavailable for
work" for *any part of the day*, e.g. taking care of kids.
“The so-called under-employment rate, which
counts those part-time workers, as well as those without jobs who have become
discouraged and stopped looking for work, rose to 11.8% from from 11%, matching
the all-time high for that measure since calculations for it began in January
1994.” - CNN, Oct. 2008 (surely much worse by now)

As the man said, "Hold your butts." 

- Ricky

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081205/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/financial_meltdown
Employers cut 533K jobs in Nov., most in 34 years
By JEANNINE AVERSA,
AP Economics Writer 12-5-08 
WASHINGTON – Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most
in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to
6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession.
The new figures, released by the Labor Department
Friday, showed the crucial employment market deteriorating at an
alarmingly rapid clip, and handed Americans some more grim news right before
the holidays. The net loss of more than a half-million jobs was far worse than
analysts expected.
As companies throttled back hiring, the unemployment rate bolted from 6.5
percent in October to 6.7 percent last month, a 15-year high.
"These numbers are shocking," said economist Joel Naroff,
president of Naroff Economics Advisors. "Companies are sharply reacting to
the economy's problems and slashing costs. They are not trying to ride it
out."
The unemployment rate would have moved even higher if not for the exodus of
422,000 people from the work force. Economists said many of those people
probably abandoned their job searches out of sheer frustration. In November
2007, the jobless rate was at 4.7 percent.
The U.S. tipped into recession last December, a panel of experts declared earlier this
week, confirming what many Americans already thought.
Since the start of the recession, the economy has lost 1.9 million jobs, the
number of unemployed people increased by 2.7 million and the jobless rate rose
by 1.7 percentage points. More evidence that the labor pain is far from over
came Friday when General Motors Corp. said it will lay off another 2,000
workers as it cuts shifts at three car factories starting in February due to
slowing demand for their products.
President George W. Bush, who used the word "recession" for the
first time to describe the economy's state, pledged Friday to explore more
efforts to ease housing, credit and financial stresses.
"There is still more work to do," Bush said. "My
administration is committed to ensuring that our economy succeeds."
President-elect Barack Obama said the dismal job news underscored the need
for forceful action, even as he warned that the pain could not be quickly relieved.
"There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis ... and it's likely to
get worse before it gets better," Obama said. "At the same time, this
... provides us with an opportunity to transform our economy to improve the
lives of ordinary people by rebuilding roads and modernizing schools for our
children, investing in clean energy solutions to break our dependence on
imported oil, and making an early down payment on the long-term reforms that
will grow and strengthen our economy for all Americans for years to come."
To provide relief, the Bush administration will continue to concentrate on
ways to bust through a credit jam that is feeding prominently into the
economy's problems, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told The Associated Press in an interview. "We're going to stay focused on
that like a laser," he said.
Elsewhere Friday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said a record one in 10
American homeowners with a mortgage were either at least a month behind on
their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. The percentage of
loans at least a month overdue or in foreclosure was up from 9.2 percent in the
April-June quarter, and from 7.3 percent a year earlier.
On Wall Street, stocks slid. The Dow Jones
industrials were down 130 points in afternoon trading.
Job losses last month were widespread, hitting factories, construction
companies, financial firms, retailers, leisure and hospitality, and others
industries. The few places where gains were logged included the government,
education and health services.
The loss of 533,000 payroll jobs was much deeper than the 320,000 job cuts
economists were forecasting. The rise in the unemployment
rate, however, wasn't as steep as the 6.8 percent rate they were
expecting. Taken together, though, the employment picture clearly darkening.
The job reductions were the most since a whopping 602,000 positions were
slashed in December 1974, when the country was in a severe recession.
All told, 10.3 million people were left unemployed as of November, while the
number of employed was 144.3 million. 
Gary Cope, 33, this week lost his communications job at Roanoke, Va.-based
high-tech research and development company Luna
Innovations Inc. 
Cope was called into a meeting first thing Thursday morning with two
administrators and a human resources representative.
Their message: He was being laid off, for financial reasons, effective
immediately. 
He left with a box of his belongings and about two months' severance. As
Cope walked out the door, all he could think was, "I have a 3-year-old son
and I'm a single dad." 
"I came home and did my initial pity party, then I got myself together,
talked to my family and went right to work" rewriting his resume and
sending it out, Cope said. "My family has been very supportive, they've
let me know I'll get through this and they won't let me drown." 
Job losses in September and October also turned out to be much worse.
Employers cut 403,000 jobs in September, versus 284,000 previously estimated.
Another 320,000 were chopped in October, compared with an initial estimate of
240,000. 
Employers are slashing costs as they cope with sagging appetites from
customers in the U.S. and in other countries, which are struggling with their own economic troubles. 
The carnage — including the worst financial crisis since the 1930s — is
hitting a wide range of companies. 
In recent days, AT&T Inc., DuPont, JPMorgan Chase
& Co., as well as jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary
of United Technologies Corp., and mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. announced
layoffs. 
Fighting for their survival, the chiefs of Chrysler LLC, General Motors and
Ford Motor Co. returned to Capitol Hill Friday to again ask lawmakers for as
much as $34 billion in emergency aid. 
Workers with jobs saw modest wage gains. Average hourly earnings rose to
$18.30 in November, a 0.4 percent increase from the previous month. Over the
year, wages have grown 3.7 percent, but paychecks haven't stretched that far
because of high prices for energy, food and other items. 
Worn-out consumers battered by the job losses, shrinking nest eggs and
tanking home values have retrenched, throwing the economy into a tailspin. As
the unemployment rate continues to move higher,
consumers will burrow further, dragging the economy down even more, a vicious
cycle that Washington policymakers are trying to break. 
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is
expected ratchet down a key interest rate — now near a historic low of 1
percent — by as much as a half-percentage point on Dec. 16 in a bid to breathe
life into the moribund economy. Bernanke is exploring other economic revival
options and wants the government to step up efforts to curb home foreclosures. 
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose
department oversees the $700 billion financial bailout program, also is weighing new initiatives such as tapping the second half of
that rescue money to ease the economic crisis. 
Obama, who takes office on Jan. 20, has called for a massive economic
recovery bill to generate 2.5 million jobs over his first two years in office. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has vowed to have
a package ready on Inauguration Day for Obama's signature. 
The measure, which could total $500 billion, would bankroll big public works
projects to create jobs, provide aid to states to help with Medicaid costs, and
provide money toward renewable energy development. 
At 12 months and counting, the recession is longer than the 10-month average
length of recessions since World War II. The record for the longest recession
in the postwar period is 16 months, which was reached in the 1973-75 and
1981-82 downturns. The current recession might end up matching that or setting
a record in terms of duration, analysts say. 
The 1981-82 recession was the worst in terms of unemployment since the Great Depression. The jobless
rate rose as high as 10.8 percent in late 1982, just as the recession
ended, before inching down. 
Given the current woes, the jobless rate could rise as high as 8.5 percent
by the end of next year, some analysts predict. Still, the unemployment rate often peaks after a recession has
ended. That's because companies are reluctant to ramp up hiring until they feel
certain the recovery has staying power.


      
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