[Peace-discuss] Battle of Kabul shapes up...

[C. G. Estabrook]

[...on the anniversary of Pearl Harbor, BTW. --CGE]

	December 7, 2008
	In New Strategy, U.S. Will Defend Kabul Environs
	By KIRK SEMPLE

KABUL, Afghanistan — Most of the additional American troops arriving in 
Afghanistan early next year will be deployed near the capital, Kabul, American 
military commanders here say, in a measure of how precarious the war effort has 
become.

It will be the first time that American or coalition forces have been deployed 
in large numbers on the southern flank of the city, a decision that reflects the 
rising concerns among military officers, diplomats and government officials 
about the increasing vulnerability of the capital and the surrounding area.

It also underscores the difficult choices confronting American military 
commanders as they try to apportion a limited number of forces not only within 
Afghanistan, but also between Afghanistan and Iraq.

For the incoming Obama administration, a first priority will be to weigh which 
is the greater risk: drawing down American forces too quickly in Iraq, 
potentially jeopardizing the gains there; or not building up troops quickly 
enough in Afghanistan, where the war effort hangs in the balance as security 
worsens.

The new Army brigade, the Third Brigade of the 10th Mountain Division from Fort 
Drum, N.Y., is scheduled to arrive in Afghanistan in January and will consist of 
3,500 to 4,000 soldiers. The “vast majority” of them will be sent to Logar and 
Wardak Provinces, adjacent to Kabul, said Lt. Col. Rumi Nielson-Green, a 
spokeswoman for the American units in eastern Afghanistan. A battalion of at 
least several hundred soldiers from that brigade will go to the border region in 
the east, where American forces have been locked in some of the fiercest 
fighting this year.

In all, the Pentagon is planning to add more than 20,000 troops to Afghanistan 
in response to a request from Gen. David D. McKiernan, the top commander in 
Afghanistan. Those troops are expected to be sent to violent areas in the south. 
But they are expected to be deployed over 12 to 18 months. Nearly all would be 
diverted from Iraq, officials say.

The plan for the incoming brigade, then, means that for the time being fewer 
reinforcements — or none at all — will be immediately available for the parts of 
Afghanistan where the insurgency is most intense.

It also means that most of the newly arriving troops will not be deployed with 
the main goal of curbing the cross-border flow of insurgents from their rear 
bases in Pakistan, something American commanders would like and President Hamid 
Karzai of Afghanistan has recommended.

In recent months, amid a series of American military operations that caused 
civilian casualties, Mr. Karzai has repeatedly said that the fight against the 
insurgents should not be waged “in the villages” of Afghanistan but rather in 
the rugged borderlands to the east and south.

In an interview, the president’s spokesman, Humayun Hamidzada, said there was no 
conflict between the January deployment and Mr. Karzai’s declarations. While Mr. 
Karzai had requested a focus on border areas, the spokesman said, additional 
reinforcements were also needed throughout the country, including in Wardak and 
Logar.

There are about 62,000 international troops currently in Afghanistan, including 
about 32,000 Americans, a military spokesman said, but they are spread thinly 
throughout the country, which is nearly the size of Texas.

American commanders say they desperately need more. Military officials say that 
if General McKiernan’s requests are met, deployments in the next year and a half 
or so will include four combat brigades, an aviation brigade equipped with 
attack and troop-carrying helicopters, reconnaissance units, support troops and 
trainers for the Afghan Army and the police, raising American force levels to 
about 58,000.

The United States and NATO forces are hoping to expand the Afghan Army to 
134,000 from nearly 70,000 over the next four or five years.

Col. Gregory S. Julian, a top military spokesman, said that for security reasons 
he could not say where exactly those troops would go, but NATO’s southern 
command in Afghanistan includes Kandahar, Helmand, Oruzgan and Zabul Provinces.

Of immediate concern, American and NATO commanders say, is the need to safeguard 
the capital, to hit new Taliban strongholds in Wardak and Logar, and to provide 
enough security in those provinces for development programs, which are essential 
to maintaining the support of Afghan villagers.

Unlike in previous winters, when there was a lull in fighting as many Taliban 
fighters returned to Pakistan, American commanders expect more Taliban fighters 
to remain in Afghanistan and continue the fight. If so, the change would seem to 
reflect an effort by the emboldened insurgency to maintain its momentum and hold 
newly gained territory.

Wardak and Logar had been relatively secure until late last year. But by most 
accounts, Taliban activity has soared in the two provinces in the past year, as 
the insurgents have stepped up attacks against Afghan and foreign forces, 
sometimes even controlling parts of major roads connecting Kabul to the east and 
south.

The number of attacks in Wardak by the Taliban and other insurgent groups has 
increased about 58 percent since last year, and in Logar about 41 percent, 
according to statistics collated by Sami Kovanen, a security analyst in Kabul.

Insurgents now have significant influence, if not control, in much of the two 
provinces, said Mr. Kovanen, who draws his information from a wide range of 
government, nongovernment and private sources.

The American military command said it had incomplete statistics for the level of 
violence in those provinces. “Frankly, in Wardak and Logar, we don’t know what 
we don’t know,” Colonel Nielson-Green said in an e-mail message. “There are few 
of our forces present in those areas, hence the reason for the incoming brigade 
there.”

“I suspect that violence will increase as we place this unit but will go down 
over time,” she added, “because we assess that there are considerable enemy 
support areas in both provinces and we will be going after them.”

In June, three American soldiers and their Afghan interpreter were killed in an 
ambush when their vehicles were hit by mines and rocket-propelled grenades as 
they drove through Wardak Province.

In August, three Western women and an Afghan driver, all working for the 
International Rescue Committee, a relief group based in New York, were killed in 
Logar. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.

The next month, the governor of Logar Province and three of his guards were 
killed in the explosion of a mine buried in a road.

American and NATO military commanders eventually hope to turn over the country’s 
security to Afghan forces, but the Afghan police and military are nowhere near 
ready to assume that responsibility, officials say.

The Afghan government has already begun to work with local and provincial 
elected officials to extend the influence of the central government in the 
region, improve public services and gain the support of residents. But the 
government’s efforts have been continually hampered by criminal gangs and 
insurgent groups.

Sediqa Mubariz, a member of Parliament from Wardak, said in an interview that 
she would welcome any additional American troops in her province.

Ms. Mubariz said security had been so poor that since last year she had not been 
able to travel from Kabul to her home district in Wardak, only 50 miles away.

Carlotta Gall contributed reporting from Kabul, and Kirk Kraeutler from New York.

Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/world/africa/07somalia.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&pagewanted=all