[Peace-discuss] Threats and counterthreats.

Sun Jul 13 08:44:12 CDT 2008

That is to say, the kind of stability we want--that which serves U.S. interests in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, and now in Iraq--depends on the instability created by a New Cold War against Iran, the demonization of Hizbollah, unrest in Lebanon, and Israel's continued occupation of Palestine. It appears that there are elements within Israel that may be challenging Israel's role in this stablity/instability equation, but interestingly none in the Israel Lobby/think tank establishment in this country (not including "J Street"). I refer centrally to the document produced by the "moderate" Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

  http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC04.php?CID=292

  DG

"C. G. Estabrook" <galliher at uiuc.edu> wrote:
  The point is that, if Iran could be goaded into an attack on Israel (in response 
to an Israeli attack), that could be used as excuse by the USG for an all-out 
attack on Iran (including tactical nuclear weapons -- the US does not admit that 
the Israelis have any nukes of their own).

Remember Clinton's pledge to "obliterate Iran" if they dare to touch Israel. 
That is of course what the neocons (and the OVP) hope they can arrange. And she 
was of course speaking for essentially all of the Democratic party (certainly 
including Obama).

I think that there is at least a chance that the recent nuclear "accidents" were 
in fact neocon (= OVP) attempts to force the Bush administration's hand on this 
matter. Probably not, but possibly.

OTOH, the USG needs Iran as a bete noire in the Middle East. Success of the 
neocon policy (viz., a passive Iraq, a US-friendly Iran as in the days of the 
Shah, the neutralization of other anti-American elements like Hezbollah and 
Hamas) would mean that the US would have little excuse for its present military 
occupation of oil-rich and adjacent regions in the Mideast. That being the 
case, states within a 1500-mile radius of the Persian Gulf (CENTCOM, roughly) 
might invite the US military to go home -- and the US would lose its direct 
control over Mideast energy resources. That would contradict two generations of 
US policy.

It was Colin Powell, then head of the JCS, who warned of an impending "enemies 
gap" almost twenty years ago. The US needs war and rumors of war in the Middle 
East. --CGE

"War is the health of the state."
--Randolph Bourne, 1918

Brussel Morton K. wrote:
> The article below summarizes recent threats from both sides of the 
> Iran/Israel-USA conflict, so far of words.
> 
> A danger not mentioned, extremely serious, is that if in fact Israel 
> attacked Iran (with U.S collaboration of course), and Iran could respond 
> so that Israel would in fact be badly hurt, Israel might be tempted to 
> use its nuclear weapons. And then, what would we have? Horrible to think 
> about. 
> 
> But most pros doubt that Israel could be severely damaged by Iran. They 
> claim that Iran's missiles are second rate, not accurate. There's much 
> psychological bluster/warfare going on. 
> 
> *Official says Iran would destroy Israel if attacked*
> 
> By Hashem Kalantari and Zahra Hosseinian 2 hours, 32 minutes ago
> 
> TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran would destroy Israel and 32 U.S. military bases 
> in the Middle East if the Islamic Republic was attacked over its 
> disputed nuclear program, a senior Iranian official was quoted as saying 
> on Saturday.
> 
> The Islamic Republic and Israel have been embroiled in an escalating war 
> of words in recent weeks, increasing speculation of military 
> confrontation and helping to send global oil prices to record highs.
> 
> Iranian missile tests this week further stoked tension and rattled 
> financial markets.
> 
> "The U.S. knows full well that with the smallest move against Iran, 
> Israel and 32 U.S. military bases in the region would not be out of the 
> reach of our missiles and would be destroyed," the semi-official Fars 
> News Agency quoted Mojtaba Zolnour as saying in a speech.
> 
> Zolnour is the deputy of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's 
> representative in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards.
> 
> Israel staged an air force exercise last month that sparked speculation 
> about a possible assault on Iranian nuclear sites.
> 
> Israel, long assumed to have its own atomic arsenal, has sworn to 
> prevent Iran from emerging as a nuclear-armed power.
> 
> Washington has said it wants a diplomatic end to the row but has not 
> ruled out military action should that fail.
> 
> Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has close ties with Iranian 
> leaders, said on Saturday he wanted a political solution to the dispute, 
> adding: "To the best of our knowledge, Iran has no intention of trying 
> to obtain nuclear weapons."
> 
> He made his comments at a joint news conference with French President 
> Nicolas Sarkozy after talks in Paris.
> 
> Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter, has vowed to strike back 
> at Israel, U.S. interests and shipping in the region if it is attacked, 
> threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for about 40 percent 
> of globally traded oil.
> 
> On Wednesday, Iran said it tested nine long- and medium-range missiles, 
> including one which it says could reach Israel and U.S. bases.
> 
> "MADNESS AND STUPIDITY"
> 
> Some U.S. facilities across the Gulf are little more than 200 km (124 
> miles) from Iran's coast. The United States has air and naval bases in 
> nearby Arab states, including Qatar and Bahrain.
> 
> In Jerusalem, Arye Mekel, Israel's Foreign Ministry spokesman, declined 
> to comment on Zolnour's remarks.
> 
> Tehran says its nuclear projects are aimed only at generating 
> electricity. Western nations and Israel fear the Islamic Republic is 
> seeking to build bombs.
> 
> Analysts say any U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran would be limited to air 
> strikes, rather than a full-scale offensive with U.S. ground forces, 
> which are tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan.
> 
> They say Iran could also respond with unconventional tactics, such as 
> deploying small craft to hit ships, or using allies in the area to 
> strike at U.S. or Israeli interests.
> 
> Earlier on Saturday, Iran's government spokesman, Gholamhossein Elham, 
> warned the United States and Israel it would be "madness and stupidity" 
> to attack Iran.
> 
> The United States and five other major powers have offered Iran economic 
> and other benefits if it halts its most sensitive atomic activities, 
> something Tehran says it will not do.
> 
> Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is expected to meet 
> European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana in Geneva on July 19 
> for talks on the long-running dispute.
> 
> Elham said Iran was ready for talks in "fair conditions" but would not 
> accept giving up what it sees as its nuclear rights.
> 
> The United Nations and Western countries have stepped up sanctions on 
> the Islamic Republic over its nuclear plans, which analysts say are 
> deterring foreign investors.
> 
> Tehran says its windfall oil earnings will enable it to carry out 
> projects on its own and also that it will find other firms particularly 
> from energy-hungry Asia to invest.
> 
> Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said Tehran would press ahead with 
> "renewed strength" in developing a major gas field in the Gulf, days 
> after French firm Total said it would not invest in the South Pars Phase 
> 11 project for now over political risks.
> 
> (Writing by Fredrik Dahl; Editing by Jon Boyle)
> 
> 
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
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