[Peace-discuss] Threats and counterthreats.

Sun Jul 13 12:17:53 CDT 2008

Curious that there is no mention of the word "oil" in this  
advertising blurb. See the articles of Englehardt and Avnery which  
I've recently posted.--mkb

On Jul 13, 2008, at 8:44 AM, David Green wrote:

> That is to say, the kind of stability we want--that which serves  
> U.S. interests in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, and now in  
> Iraq--depends on the instability created by a New Cold War against  
> Iran, the demonization of Hizbollah, unrest in Lebanon, and  
> Israel's continued occupation of Palestine. It appears that there  
> are elements within Israel that may be challenging Israel's role in  
> this stablity/instability equation, but interestingly none in the  
> Israel Lobby/think tank establishment in this country (not  
> including "J Street"). I refer centrally to the document produced  
> by the "moderate" Washington Institute for Near East Policy:
>
> http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC04.php?CID=292
>
> DG
>
> "C. G. Estabrook" <galliher at uiuc.edu> wrote:
> The point is that, if Iran could be goaded into an attack on Israel  
> (in response
> to an Israeli attack), that could be used as excuse by the USG for  
> an all-out
> attack on Iran (including tactical nuclear weapons -- the US does  
> not admit that
> the Israelis have any nukes of their own).
>
> Remember Clinton's pledge to "obliterate Iran" if they dare to  
> touch Israel.
> That is of course what the neocons (and the OVP) hope they can  
> arrange. And she
> was of course speaking for essentially all of the Democratic party  
> (certainly
> including Obama).
>
> I think that there is at least a chance that the recent nuclear  
> "accidents" were
> in fact neocon (= OVP) attempts to force the Bush administration's  
> hand on this
> matter. Probably not, but possibly.
>
> OTOH, the USG needs Iran as a bete noire in the Middle East.  
> Success of the
> neocon policy (viz., a passive Iraq, a US-friendly Iran as in the  
> days of the
> Shah, the neutralization of other anti-American elements like  
> Hezbollah and
> Hamas) would mean that the US would have little excuse for its  
> present military
> occupation of oil-rich and adjacent regions in the Mideast. That  
> being the
> case, states within a 1500-mile radius of the Persian Gulf  
> (CENTCOM, roughly)
> might invite the US military to go home -- and the US would lose  
> its direct
> control over Mideast energy resources. That would contradict two  
> generations of
> US policy.
>
> It was Colin Powell, then head of the JCS, who warned of an  
> impending "enemies
> gap" almost twenty years ago. The US needs war and rumors of war in  
> the Middle
> East. --CGE
>
> "War is the health of the state."
> --Randolph Bourne, 1918
>
>
> Brussel Morton K. wrote:
> > The article below summarizes recent threats from both sides of the
> > Iran/Israel-USA conflict, so far of words.
> >
> > A danger not mentioned, extremely serious, is that if in fact Israel
> > attacked Iran (with U.S collaboration of course), and Iran could  
> respond
> > so that Israel would in fact be badly hurt, Israel might be  
> tempted to
> > use its nuclear weapons. And then, what would we have? Horrible  
> to think
> > about.
> >
> > But most pros doubt that Israel could be severely damaged by  
> Iran. They
> > claim that Iran's missiles are second rate, not accurate. There's  
> much
> > psychological bluster/warfare going on.
> >
> > *Official says Iran would destroy Israel if attacked*
> >
> > By Hashem Kalantari and Zahra Hosseinian 2 hours, 32 minutes ago
> >
> > TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran would destroy Israel and 32 U.S. military  
> bases
> > in the Middle East if the Islamic Republic was attacked over its
> > disputed nuclear program, a senior Iranian official was quoted as  
> saying
> > on Saturday.
> >
> > The Islamic Republic and Israel have been embroiled in an  
> escalating war
> > of words in recent weeks, increasing speculation of military
> > confrontation and helping to send global oil prices to record highs.
> >
> > Iranian missile tests this week further stoked tension and rattled
> > financial markets.
> >
> > "The U.S. knows full well that with the smallest move against Iran,
> > Israel and 32 U.S. military bases in the region would not be out  
> of the
> > reach of our missiles and would be destroyed," the semi-official  
> Fars
> > News Agency quoted Mojtaba Zolnour as saying in a speech.
> >
> > Zolnour is the deputy of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's
> > representative in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards.
> >
> > Israel staged an air force exercise last month that sparked  
> speculation
> > about a possible assault on Iranian nuclear sites.
> >
> > Israel, long assumed to have its own atomic arsenal, has sworn to
> > prevent Iran from emerging as a nuclear-armed power.
> >
> > Washington has said it wants a diplomatic end to the row but has not
> > ruled out military action should that fail.
> >
> > Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has close ties with Iranian
> > leaders, said on Saturday he wanted a political solution to the  
> dispute,
> > adding: "To the best of our knowledge, Iran has no intention of  
> trying
> > to obtain nuclear weapons."
> >
> > He made his comments at a joint news conference with French  
> President
> > Nicolas Sarkozy after talks in Paris.
> >
> > Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter, has vowed to  
> strike back
> > at Israel, U.S. interests and shipping in the region if it is  
> attacked,
> > threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for about 40  
> percent
> > of globally traded oil.
> >
> > On Wednesday, Iran said it tested nine long- and medium-range  
> missiles,
> > including one which it says could reach Israel and U.S. bases.
> >
> > "MADNESS AND STUPIDITY"
> >
> > Some U.S. facilities across the Gulf are little more than 200 km  
> (124
> > miles) from Iran's coast. The United States has air and naval  
> bases in
> > nearby Arab states, including Qatar and Bahrain.
> >
> > In Jerusalem, Arye Mekel, Israel's Foreign Ministry spokesman,  
> declined
> > to comment on Zolnour's remarks.
> >
> > Tehran says its nuclear projects are aimed only at generating
> > electricity. Western nations and Israel fear the Islamic Republic is
> > seeking to build bombs.
> >
> > Analysts say any U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran would be limited  
> to air
> > strikes, rather than a full-scale offensive with U.S. ground forces,
> > which are tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan.
> >
> > They say Iran could also respond with unconventional tactics,  
> such as
> > deploying small craft to hit ships, or using allies in the area to
> > strike at U.S. or Israeli interests.
> >
> > Earlier on Saturday, Iran's government spokesman, Gholamhossein  
> Elham,
> > warned the United States and Israel it would be "madness and  
> stupidity"
> > to attack Iran.
> >
> > The United States and five other major powers have offered Iran  
> economic
> > and other benefits if it halts its most sensitive atomic activities,
> > something Tehran says it will not do.
> >
> > Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is expected to meet
> > European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana in Geneva on  
> July 19
> > for talks on the long-running dispute.
> >
> > Elham said Iran was ready for talks in "fair conditions" but  
> would not
> > accept giving up what it sees as its nuclear rights.
> >
> > The United Nations and Western countries have stepped up  
> sanctions on
> > the Islamic Republic over its nuclear plans, which analysts say are
> > deterring foreign investors.
> >
> > Tehran says its windfall oil earnings will enable it to carry out
> > projects on its own and also that it will find other firms  
> particularly
> > from energy-hungry Asia to invest.
> >
> > Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said Tehran would press ahead with
> > "renewed strength" in developing a major gas field in the Gulf, days
> > after French firm Total said it would not invest in the South  
> Pars Phase
> > 11 project for now over political risks.
> >
> > (Writing by Fredrik Dahl; Editing by Jon Boyle)
> >
> >
> >  
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
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> >
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