[Peace-discuss] Iran flier for July 19 / first point, first rough draft

[Karen Medina]

For a flier for tomorrow, I first want to make it clear that Ahmadinejad is not all 
that important... so here is the first rough draft of point one:

Iranian President Ahmadinejad is not the head of state, nor commander in chief. 
He is up for re-election soon, and does not have much support at home.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not well supported by the Iranian 
people. He was democratically elected in 2005 because he had promised the 
people that he would distribute Iran's oil income among the poor, promised 
other economic changes, and promised more rights for women as well. But 
when Mr. Ahmadinejad came into office is when he started the strong defiance 
toward the West. While his tough-guy remarks raise him in some people's eyes, 
it lowers him in the eyes of those who were expecting more economic and 
social reform.

Political analysts in Iran are surprised at the degree to which the West focuses 
on the Iranian president, saying that the focus reflects a general 
misunderstanding of Iran's political system. Ahmadinejad's outrageous 
statements have no more likelihood of being put into practice than many of his 
other plans.

In Iran the president is not the head of state nor the commander in chief. That 
status is held by the Supreme Leader whose role combines civil and religious 
authority. 

“The United States pays too much attention to Ahmadinejad,” said an Iranian 
political scientist. “He is not that consequential.”

That is not to say that Mr. Ahmadinejad is insignificant. He controls the 
mechanics of civil government, much the way a prime minister does in a state 
like Egypt. He manages the budget and has put like-minded people in positions 
around the country, from provincial governors to prosecutors. 

Ahmadinejad does have support from the Basiji militia and elements of the 
Revolutionary Guards, but Mr. Ahmadinejad continues to loose support at home. 
Two of his ministers have quit, criticizing his stewardship of the state. The head 
of the central bank resigned. The chief judge criticized him for his management 
of the government. His promise to root out corruption and redistribute oil 
wealth has not come to fruition, in large part due to entrenched interests in high 
offices.

Even a small bloc of members of Parliament that once aligned with Mr. 
Ahmadinejad has largely given up, officials said.

Iranians will go to the polls in less a year to select a new president. 
Ahmadinejad's current term will end in August 2009. While Ahmadinejad could 
be re-elected for one more term, the popularity he does enjoy is largely due to 
the West's response to his revolutionary statements. "In demonizing Mr. 
Ahmadinejad, the West has served him well, elevating his status at home and in 
the region at a time when he is increasingly isolated politically because of his 
go-it-alone style and ineffective economic policies, according to Iranian 
politicians, officials and political experts."

In 2006, during the first nationwide election since Ahmadinejad took office, 
allies of the Iranian President failed to dominate election returns for the 
Assembly of Experts and local councils. Turnout of about 60 percent was 
reported for the 2006 election, and the results suggested a voter shift toward 
more moderate policies. [Note in 2005 when Ahmadinejad was elected the voter 
turnout was also 60%. In the United States, 60% of the citizens age 18 and over 
voted in the 2000 election, and 64% voted in the 2004 election -- the highest 
turnout since 1968.]

References Used
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/24/world/middleeast/24iran.html?
_r=1&oref=slogin


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election,_2005

http://www.census.gov/Press-
Release/www/releases/archives/voting/004986.html
-- which says that the voter turnout was 64% in 2004, United States.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10492-2005Jan14.html
-- which says the 2004 turnout was only 60%