[Peace-discuss] Cockburn on the election

[C. G. Estabrook]

	September 13, 2008 The First Post
	Democrats panic in the face of Palin-mania

	Barack Obama has gone from ‘sure bet’ to defensive candidate
	in the space of a fortnight

Democrats, exquisitely sensitised to the footfalls of defeat by the debacles of 
2000 and 2004, caught the first menacing chords of impending disaster last 
weekend and have been panicking ever since.

The hours they were able to revel in the apparent success of their Denver 
convention and Obama's big speech were pitifully brief. The very next day John 
McCain picked as his running mate a virtually unknown governor from Alaska and 
the country has gone Palin-crazy ever since.

Contrary to Obama's appeals for unity, America has become joyously divided. 
Evangelicals, braced by Palin's Christian faith, have risen spryly from the bed 
of their indifference to McCain, a man whose relationship to the Holy Spirit is 
remote. Now their champion is an accredited bible-thumper, Palin the Pentecostalist.

Liberals, particularly women, maddened at the spectacle of attractive Governor 
Sarah embodying everything they loathe, flood the internet with frantic oaths 
and seize on every particle of gossip from Alaska suggesting that Palin is a 
hypocrite, a mismanager, a would-be burner of books, a bad mother and 'Untrue to 
her Man'. Those scoffing only a few short weeks ago at the National Enquirer's 
'mere unverified gossip' about John Edwards's affair, now hasten to the 
supermarkets to buy the Enquirer's latest allegations about Palin and her family.

As the political news circuits began to buzz with news of improved polling 
numbers for McCain-Palin in the battleground states, Obama's ascent towards the 
status of a Sure Bet abruptly stalled. After the triumphs of Denver, the 
candidate relapsed into the nerveless mode of early August.

He had the poor judgment to go on the cable news show of Fox's Bill O'Reilly and 
make the extraordinary statement that the so-called 'surge' in Iraq had 
"succeeded beyond our wildest dreams".

At a stroke, with this deadly concession, Obama handed McCain the opportunity, 
in their upcoming debates, to congratulate his Democratic opponent for 
acknowledging McCain's superior political and military judgment.

Simultaneously Obama left spinning in the wind all those liberal supporters who 
had been arguing that the present lowering of violence in Iraq owes little to 
the surge in US troops, as opposed to changes in local political conditions. It 
certainly confirmed my view that Obama rarely has the stomach to stand his 
ground, when challenged from the right with any vigour.

When a candidate trips up, or loses the initiative, his path becomes one endless 
snare. Obama's likening of the hypocrisies of the McCain campaign to a pig 
wearing lipstick was swiftly converted by the right into a sexist insult against 
Palin. The Democrats try to fight back by saying McCain and Palin are being 
unfair, are misrepresenting their views. But then, the next day, the Republicans 
launch another slur and retain the initiative.

Ominously reminiscent of John Kerry in 2004, defensiveness seeps from a 
Democratic ticket endlessly trying to set the record straight. Obama's running 
mate, Senator Joe Biden, pays tribute to Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally and 
says politely that "quite frankly, it might have been a better pick than me". 
This is instantly offered up on the right-wing talk shows as a confession of 
total inadequacy.

Day after day McCain's escorts shielded Palin from any impromptu exchanges with 
the press, until the eagerly awaited three-part interview with ABC's Charles 
Gibson began last night. Her performance reminded me that an ignorant candidate 
who doesn't panic can get away with almost anything.

In the mid-70s, covering Ronald Reagan's first presidential bid, I remember 
formulating complicated smarty-pants questions on the campaign trail designed to 
trip up the California governor and expose him as a tyro in foreign policy.

I taxed him at his impromptu press conferences with recondite queries about the 
Law of the Sea and side agreements to the latest GATT round. Reagan sailed 
through on cushions of blather, just like Palin did last night.

Gibson asked her about the Bush doctrine and like most of the TV audience Palin 
clearly had no idea what it was. But Gibson's successive attempts to pin her 
down to something more precise than bluster about America's right to protect 
itself ended up sounding querulous.

So the Obama campaign is rattled, and the Republicans heartened. But it's way 
too soon to make larger surmises. Presidential elections are settled by the 
electoral college and not by popular vote, and in the states crucial to a 
majority in the electoral college Obama is still doing pretty well.

In 2004 Kerry lost such swing states as Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico and 
Colorado. Today (somewhat depending which polls you trust) Obama is ahead in 
Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico and New Hampshire. McCain leads in Florida and Virginia.

Obama has a lot more money for campaign advertising than McCain. Economic 
conditions are bad and the official rate of unemployment (about half the actual 
rate) is now above six per cent.

Last weekend, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson rushed to bail out Fannie Mae and 
Freddie Mac in the largest nationalisation in history, privatising the profits 
and nationalising the losses, sticking the taxpayers with a $300bn tab. This 
week it's the turn of Lehman to go belly up, with Washington Mutual also in bad 
trouble. Governor Palin may be weak on the Bush doctrine, but McCain's grasp of 
the economy is frailer by far.

We have the debates ahead and six weeks in which Americans can recover from the 
intoxication of their first date with Governor Sarah and ponder whether they 
really want Republicans in the White House for 12 straight years. Popular though 
the Palin pick may have been, she'd need truly magical powers to elicit right 
now a conclusive 'Yes' on that big question.

FIRST POSTED SEPTEMBER 12, 2008

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/45366,opinion,democrats-panic-in-the-face-of-palin-mania-alexander-cockburn-sarah-palin