[Peace-discuss] US' real enemy in Mideast (III)

Fri Dec 4 20:52:48 CST 2009

	US takes hunt for al-Qaeda to Pakistan
	By Syed Saleem Shahzad

ISLAMABAD - Notwithstanding the surge of 30,000 additional United States troops 
in Afghanistan, as outlined by US President Barack Obama in his policy speech on 
Tuesday, the next phase of the war will primarily be aimed at fighting al-Qaeda 
in Pakistan's tribal areas, while all efforts in Afghanistan will focus on a 
peaceful settlement to pave the way for an American exit.

This is the view of one of the two principal intermediaries between the US and 
the Afghan national resistance, Daoud Abedi (the other is Mullah Zaeef), whose 
role was first reported by Asia Times Online. (See Holbrooke reaches out to 
Hekmatyar April 10, 2009.)

Washington initiated dialogue with the veteran mujahid, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, 
leader of the Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA), through his longtime lieutenant, 
Abedi. Abedi is an Afghan-American based in Los Angeles, a prominent businessman 
and social worker as well as being a former representative of the HIA.

He believes that Obama's surge is the start of an exit strategy to bring peace 
to Afghanistan by pushing the war into the Pakistani tribal areas against 
al-Qaeda. After all, the objective of the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was to 
topple the Taliban regime as it had allowed al-Qaeda to operate in the country. 
After eight years, the US's efforts have been reset around this objective, even 
if it means greater activity in Pakistan.

In his Tuesday speech, Obama urged Pakistan to fight the "cancer" of extremism 
and said the US would not tolerate Pakistan allowing its territory to be a safe 
haven for militants. Testifying this week on Obama's new war plan, his senior 
military and diplomatic advisers all stressed that Pakistan was a critical 
component of the strategy.

There are already pointers of the war moving more in Pakistan's direction.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, a close ally of the US, this week said that 
both al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, were 
still at large and questioned why Pakistani security forces had not done more to 
catch them. "If we are putting our strategy into place, Pakistan has to show 
that it can take on al-Qaeda," he said.

Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani responded that his country had not 
received any credible intelligence on the whereabouts of the leaders. “I doubt 
the information which you are giving is correct because I don't think Osama bin 
Laden is in Pakistan," he said.

In a related development, the White House this week is reported to have approved 
an expansion of the Central Intelligence Agency's drone program from the North 
Waziristan and South Waziristan tribal areas in Pakistan to southern Balochistan 
province. Top Taliban and al-Qaeda figures are believed to operate from 
Balochistan. Here, Pakistan already faces a low-level insurgency from Baloch 
rebels seeking provincial autonomy.

Unmanned drone attacks in the tribal areas over the past few years have killed a 
number of al-Qaeda members as well as Pakistani Taliban commanders. This year 
alone, nearly 50 strikes in the northwestern border regions have killed 415 people.

The grand plan

Abedi visited Pakistan and Afghanistan earlier this year and held talks with US 
and British officials, including the US envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, 
Richard Holbrooke. In a personal capacity, Abedi, whose roots go back to 
Kandahar in Afghanistan, knows several top Taliban leaders and commanders.

In an exclusive e-mail correspondence with Asia Times Online, Abedi said he was 
privy to information that Obama had been prepared to announce the withdrawal 
date of July 2011 - as he did on Tuesday - but without sending the extra troops.

However, there were two main problems:
  --The US would not accept a Taliban government, to be known to the world as 
the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, to be led by the Taliban leader, Mullah 
Omar. That is, under no circumstances would Mullah Omar be allowed to feature in 
any new setup.
  --The US wanted to be able to claim the defeat of al-Qaeda - at present, the 
US believes it has only been 70% successful.

Abedi said, "If they [the US] can be assured somehow that the Taliban are not 
going to overrun any transitional government, and are going to allow the 
so-called international community to leave behind a stable transitional 
government which could function for at least 18 months to two years based on 
Islamic and so-called international values, they might very much be willing to 
do what they are saying, which is to exit even faster than 18 months."

Abedi suggested, "If the Obama administration somehow managed to come up with 
the [necessary] number of Afghan soldiers and police to hand over security to 
them, and then a [loya jirga] grand council was called by [Afghan President 
Hamid] Karzai after 18 months and political power was turned over to a number of 
people [transitional government] who were for the time being accepted by all 
sides of the conflict, this would give the occupiers a chance to leave ... 
Brother Hekmatyar and Mullah Omar Mujahid both have said that they won't attack 
foreign forces on the way out if they pull out of the country immediately.

"The other side [Karzai government] would not be a concern for the US; they can 
be slapped on the face and told to shut up and do what they are told ... just 
like [what happened after] the so-called [August presidential] elections when 
they told [rival runoff candidate Abdullah] Abdullah to back off and stay quiet, 
which he gladly did ..."

Abedi, who has had dialogue with senior US officials in addition to Holbrooke on 
behalf of Hekmatyar, continued, "We know that July 2011 is a start date without 
an exact end date, and it may be argued at that time that the situation on the 
ground does not allow US forces and NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] to 
leave the country ... What do you think the US and its allies would do next? 
Would there be another surge? Atom bomb? Or something else?"

Abedi said that for the US, losing or winning the war in Afghanistan is 
immaterial - its real fight is against al-Qaeda, and therefore in the next phase 
of the war, the real fight, will be against al-Qaeda. [THAT'S QUITE WRONG: US' 
REAL FIGHT IS TO PREVENT POPULOUS & DANGEROUS PAKISTAN BECOMING AN OBSTACLE TO 
US CONTROL OF 'PIPELINISTAN' AND HENCE THE REST OF THE MIDEAST; WILL THE US OR 
THE ARMY RULE IN PAKISTAN?]

"I think the US knows that they have lost the war in Afghanistan, but they have 
not finished the work in the tribal area near the Durand Line [that separates 
Pakistan and Afghanistan]. Don't you think that the US might use the 30,000 
fresh soldiers as a wall to prevent al-Qaeda members from entering into 
Afghanistan while they [US] and the Pakistani army attack from all sides to 
these above-mentioned areas for a final push to do the last and most damage to 
al-Qaeda, claim victory, and then start leaving gradually to save their face?

"Don't you think that is the reason they are cornering [Pakistani President Asif 
Ali] Zardari to deal with the military directly so the military can implement 
enough pressure on the so-called Pakistani Taliban to let al-Qaeda go from their 
grip so they [US] can hunt them down," said Abedi. [NO: THE US IS TRYING TO USE 
THE WEAK REED OF ZARDAI - & A LOT OF MONEY - TO CONTROL THE PAKISTANI ARMY.]

Abedi said this was the most suitable way for the US to direct the war only 
towards al-Qaeda so that deals could be set up with the Afghans. Abedi is 
convinced that the US should not prolong the war as it is already lost. (Obama 
admitted in his speech on Tuesday that vast tracts of Afghanistan are under 
Taliban control).

For Abedi, a 24-month package - withdrawal after 18 month and six months to set 
up a transitional government - is the best answer for Afghanistan as it offers 
opportunities for all of the parties involved.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be 
reached at saleem_shahzad2002 at yahoo.com