[Peace-discuss] Pakistani army

[C. G. Estabrook]

[From an online discussion a year ago. The implication is the great danger of 
the USG attacks on Pakistan.  The administration is committed to increasing the 
killing that it is already carrying out there; it sees AfPak as the "central 
front" of its SW Asian war.  --CGE]

The Economist magazine in its January issue labelled Pakistan not only the most 
dangerous country in the world but also a failed state and aired worries that 
nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of the terrorists. What is your view?

Tariq Ali: I think it is a dysfunctional state rather than a failed one, but the 
notion of jihadi terrorists capturing the nuclear facility is nonsense. They 
would have to capture the Pakistan army first. This consists of half a million 
men. The nuclear facility is the most heavily guarded place in the country. A 
handful of senior officers know the codes. So its safe. And its worth repeating 
that except for a short period following the break-up of the country in 1971, 
the command structure of the army has never been broken. Even in 1971, the 
generals responsible for the debacle were asked politely to resign, which they 
did. Jihadis could only capture the nuclear facility if the army wanted them to 
and there is no likelihood of that at the moment.

Stephen Cohen: I can provide a gloss on Tariq Ali’s answer - I’ve looked at the 
question of failure closely in my recent book on Pakistan and concluded that it 
had failed in pieces, but not comprehensively, as had Afghanistan (which was in 
some ways a murdered, not a failed state) and several African states, which are 
hardly states in any sense of the word. Yet, the nuclear assets are perhaps 
still vulnerable, one scenario for Pakistan would be a falling out among the 
military, or perhaps a politician trying to divide the military - in these 
cases, short of total state failure, nuclear assets could be important in a 
power struggle, and who knows what would happen to them. This is, of course, a 
distant possibility, and Ali is correct in emphasising the unity of the armed 
forces. However, there’s a lot of concern that under stress unpredictable things 
could happen, and Pakistan’s earlier record as the wholesaler of nuclear 
technology to other states does not inspire confidence.

Tariq Ali: Cohen is right to say that a split in the army could have 
catastrophic results, but this is unlikely unless the US decided to invade and 
occupy the country. That would split the army but it is as long a shot as 
jihadis capturing the nuclear weapons...

http://www.pragoti.org/node/568