[Peace-discuss] Fwd: Afghanistan: "The $1 trillion figure is ... highly misleading"

[John W.]

 *THE WISDOM FUND
TWF.org*


June 14, 2010
Times Online

*Value of Afghanistans mineral discovery needs to be dealt with cautiously*
By David Robertson, Business Correspondent


The good news from the men at the Pentagon is that beneath the landmines
Afghanistan is sitting on a goldmine.

Exactly when they took their degrees in geology is unclear but officials
have estimated that Afghanistans mineral resources could be worth $1
trillion.

This suspiciously round number appears to be based on geological surveys
made decades ago as well as recent on-the-ground research.

How thorough that could have been is open to debate, given that it takes the
worlds best miners about a decade to explore a new area.

Factor in Afghanistans size, and the Pentagon must have had an army of
geologists working in the country since immediately after 9/11 to have
accurately studied its terrain.

*The $1 trillion figure is, therefore, highly misleading. It is a
theoretical number and may have little relation to the value of resources
that could actually be exploited.
*
After all, you can dig up any garden in the UK and find copper, iron and all
manner of other metals and minerals. The North Sea alone contains an
estimated $207 billion of gold.

The difference between a British garden and the vast mines of Australia and
South Africa is that minerals and metals are found there in quantities and
concentrations that make it economical to extract.

It will be of little benefit to Afghanistan if its $1 trillion of mineral
resources would cost $2 trillion to dig up.

The Americans have also made an error in publicising this guesstimate of
Afghanistans mineral wealth because it will raise expectations and thereby
inflate future facilitation payments.

It is an unwritten rule among mining companies that you never get too
specific about the potential value of deposits in developing countries as it
only serves to inflate the bribes that are requested.

Afghanistans former Minister of Mines has already been accused by the
Americans of receiving a $30 million bribe to allocate mining licences.

Even if there were $1 trillion of mineral resources in Afghanistan, and even
if those resources were economically viable, it would be years before a
large Western miner considered going anywhere near the country.

BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Xstrata and Anglo American the worlds largest
miners have no intention of moving into Afghanistan because the risk is far
greater than the reward.

It would cost $5 billion or more to develop a large copper, iron ore or gold
mine in Afghanistan and potentially a further $5 billion to build the
necessary infrastructure (roads, railways, etc).

No company will risk that sort of money in a country where the Government
does not control all the territory and contract law is far from solid.

The only people to have shown an interest in Afghanistans mines so far are
the Chinese because, unlike a private company, they can tie agreements to
foreign aid, loans and arms deals things that Kabul will not want to renege
on.

It is possible that Chinas grab for Afghan resources has prompted the
Pentagons attempt to generate some interest from the rest of the world in
the countrys resources.

The Americans might not like the idea of someone else benefiting from its
military commitment to Afghanistan but Chinese mines might still be
preferable to poppy fields.


---
June 15, 2010
Asia Times Online

*Pentagon strikes it rich*
Jim Lobe

The timing of the publication of a major New York Times story on the vast
untapped mineral wealth that lies beneath Afghanistan's soil is raising
major questions about the intent of the Pentagon, . . . *some analysts
believe the front-page article is designed to reverse growing public
sentiment that the war is not worth the cost*. . . .

As noted by Blake Hounshell, managing editor at Foreign Policy magazine, the
U.S. Geological Service (USGS) already published a comprehensive inventory
of Afghanistan's non-oil mineral resources on the Internet in 2007, as did
the British Geological Survey. Much of their work was based on explorations
and surveys undertaken by the Soviet Union during its occupation of
Afghanistan during the 1980s. . . .


*ink="http://www.twf.org/News/Y2010/0613-Riches.html">MORE*

---
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed
without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the
included information for research and educational purposes.

*FREE E-Book:** "THE WAR ON ISLAM<http://www.twf.org/Library/WaronIslam.html>"
**(NEW 364 page, 5th edition)**

**FREE E-Book:** "9/11 UNVEILED<http://www.twf.org/Library/911Unveiled.html>"
*

SUBSCRIBE <http://www.twf.org/twflist/subscribe.html> to TWF mailing list.

-- 
This message has been scanned for viruses and
dangerous content by MailScanner, and is
believed to be clean.

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.chambana.net/pipermail/peace-discuss/attachments/20100615/b63d7312/attachment-0001.html>