[Peace-discuss] End US war vs. Pakistan (ix)

[C. G. Estabrook]

  The US Edges Closer to Invading Pakistan
by Eric Margolis

This writer has been warning for years that US and NATO efforts to defeat 
resistance to Western occupation by Afghanistan’s fierce Pashtun tribes would 
eventually lead to spreading the conflict into neighboring Pakistan, a nation of 
175 million.

We’ve seen it all before in Vietnam. It was then called, "mission creep."

The focus of the Afghan War is clearly shifting south into Pakistan, drawing 
that nation and the United States forces ever closer to a direct confrontation. 
This grim development was as predictable as it was inevitable.

This week’s fevered warnings from Washington of supposedly imminent terrorist 
attacks in Europe may be aimed at justifying intensifying US military operations 
against Pakistan. If attacks do come in Europe, they will most likely be linked 
to anti-French militant groups in North Africa and the Sahara – nothing at all 
to do with Afghanistan or Pakistan.

Last week, Pakistan temporarily closed the main US/NATO supply route from 
Karachi to the Afghan border at Torkham after the killing of three Pakistani 
soldiers by US helicopter gunships. Three US/NATO fuel supply convoys were 
burned by anti-American militants.

Eighty percent of the supplies of the US-led forces in Afghanistan come up this 
long, difficult route. Along the way, the US pays large bribes to Pakistani 
officials, local warlords, and to Taliban. The cost of a gallon of gas delivered 
to US units in Afghanistan has risen to $800.

US helicopter gunships have staged at least four attacks on Pakistan this past 
week alone, in addition to the mounting number of strikes by CIA drones that are 
inflicting heavy casualties on civilians and tribal militants alike. US Special 
Forces and CIA-run Afghan mercenaries are also increasingly active along 
Pakistan’s northwest frontier.

Pakistan’s feeble, discredited government has long closed its eyes to CIA’s 
drone attacks. Washington does not even seek permission for the raids or give 
advance warning to Islamabad. Pakistan’s media claims over 90% of the casualties 
in US air raids are civilians.

The failing government in Islamabad is caught between two fires. Pakistanis are 
furious and humiliated by the American attacks. Each new assault further 
undermines the inept, US-installed Zardari government. Even Interior Minister 
Rehman Malik, the government’s strongman, protested last week’s US attacks.

But Pakistan is on the edge of economic collapse after its devastating floods. 
Islamabad is now totally reliant on $2 billion annual US aid, plus tens of 
millions more "black" payments from CIA. Washington has given Islamabad $10 
billion since 2001, most of which goes to renting 140,000 Pakistani troops to 
support the US-led Afghan war. CIA also has 3,000 mercenaries operating inside 
Pakistan.

As Osama bin Laden just pointed out in a new audio tape, the Muslim nations have 
been derelict in coming to Pakistan’s aid. He blamed the massive flooding in 
Pakistan on global warming.

An influential former Pakistani chief of staff, Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, just 
demanded Pakistan’s air force shoot down US drones and helicopters violating his 
nation’s sovereignty. His sentiments are widely shared in Pakistan’s 
increasingly angry military.

Pakistan’s senior generals are being blasted as "American stooges" by some of 
the media and are losing respect among Pakistanis. A video this week of the 
execution of six civilians by army troops has further damaged the army’s good name.

However, Washington’s view is very different. Pakistan is increasingly branded 
insubordinate, ungrateful for billions in aid, and a potential enemy of US 
regional interests. Many Americans consider Pakistan more of a foe than ally. 
The limited US financial response to Pakistan’s flood was a sign of that 
nation’s poor repute in North America.

Fears are growing in Washington and in Europe that the nine-year Afghan War may 
be lost. American popular opinion has turned against the war. The Pentagon fears 
a failure in Afghanistan will humiliate the US military and undermine America’s 
international power. In short, just what happened to the Soviet Union in 
Afghanistan.

America’s foreign policy establishment is venting its anger and frustration over 
the failing Afghan War by lashing out at Pakistan and, as well, the US-installed 
Karzai regime in Kabul.

Pakistan’s President, Asif Ali Zardari, is seen in Washington as hopeless and 
incompetent. Full US attention is now on Pakistan’s military, the de facto 
government, and its respected but embattled commander, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, whose 
tenure was just extended under US pressure. Kayani is still regarded as an 
"asset" by Washington. But like Zardari, he is caught between American demands 
and outraged Pakistanis – plus concerns about the threat from India and Delhi’s 
machinations in Afghanistan. The recent upsurge of violence in Indian-ruled 
Kashmir has intensified these dangerous tensions between nuclear-armed India and 
Pakistan.

The neoconservatives in Washington and their media allies again claim Pakistan 
is a grave threat to US interests and to Israel. Pakistan must be declawed and 
dismembered, insist the neocons. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is reportedly being 
targeted for seizure or elimination by US Special Forces.

There is also talk in Washington of dividing Afghanistan into Pashtun, Tajik and 
Uzbek mini-states, as the US has done in Iraq. Could Pakistan be next for this 
divide and conquer treatment? Little states are easier to rule or intimidate 
than big ones. Many Pakistanis believe the United States is bent on dismembering 
their nation. Some polls show Pakistanis now regard the United States as a 
greater enemy than India.

Now that America is in full mid-term election frenzy, expect more calls for 
tougher US military action in "AfPak." Already unpopular politicians are 
terrified of being branded "soft on terrorism" and failing to maximally support 
US military campaigns. Flag waving replaces sober thought.

If polls are right and Republicans achieve a major win, it’s likely there will 
be more and deeper US air and land attacks into Pakistan. The Pentagon is 
convinced it can still defeat resistance by Taliban and its allies "if only we 
can go after their sanctuaries in Pakistan," as one general told me.

Where have we heard this before? Why in Cambodia and Laos, that’s where, during 
the Vietnam War. Frustrated US commanders expanded the war into Cambodia and 
Laos to go after Communist base camps. The war spread; these two small nations 
were largely destroyed, but the war was ultimately lost.

Victory in war is achieved by concentration of forces, not spreading them ever 
thinner and wider.

But our imperial generals seem determined to blunder into a nation of 175 
million hostile people without any clear strategy. Unable to subdue the Pashtun 
tribes of Afghanistan, they are now attacking the Pashtun tribes of Pakistan. 
America does not need more enemies.
October 5, 2010

Eric Margolis [send him mail] is the author of War at the Top of the World and 
the new book, American Raj: Liberation or Domination?: Resolving the Conflict 
Between the West and the Muslim World. See his website.