[Peace-discuss] The allure of Afghanistan
C. G. Estabrook
galliher at illinois.edu
Thu Aug 4 20:01:41 CDT 2011
*The allure of Afghanistan*
Asian powers jostle for position amid vast mineral reserves and strategic oil
pipelines, while West keeps bombing.
Pepe Escobar Last Modified: 29 Jul 2011 16:21
Afghanistan is not often perceived as a mineral Holy Grail.
But, as it turns out, between $1-3 trillion in mineral wealth lies unexplored
across the Hindu Kush. There's enough uranium, lithium, copper and iron ore to
potentially turn Afghanistan into a commodities powerhouse.
The Pentagon knows all about it - how could it not? And the Russians have known
about it since at least the 1970s, when they mapped out all the uranium riches
of northern Afghanistan.
Washington may have complex geopolitical energy reasons to remain in Afghanistan
- as explored in a previous Al Jazeera article that generated enormous reader
response.
For its part, Islamabad is still obsessed with viewing Afghanistan as a pliable
satrap. But the going gets much juicier when one looks at key Eurasian players
such as Russia, India and China and their own, non-Pentagonised reasons to come
to this mineral Walhalla.
*Business suits, not bombs*
Early next month a crucial bidding war begins in Kabul. It concerns Hajigak, the
world's biggest iron ore deposits, which are located in central Afghanistan (at
least 1.8bn tons, according to a Soviet estimate made in the 1960s). To the
sound of much predictable Taliban grumbling, all 15 bidding companies are from
India - including giants Tata Steel and JSW, the country's third-largest private
steel company.
A stable, business-friendly Afghanistan is absolutely essential for India - a
gateway to oil and gas from Iran, Central Asia and the Caspian. India is
building power stations and strategic roads, such as the one linking Afghanistan
with the Iranian port of Chahbahar.
Few may know it, but it's not only Africa that is the object of a fierce
India-China business "war". Afghanistan is also a key chessboard. There are five
types of minerals on the Afghan horizon - gold, copper, iron ore, and
inevitably, oil and gas - and the Indians and the Chinese are all over them.
China Metallurgical Corporation already got a big prize in 2008 - the Aynak
copper mine in Logar, southeast of Kabul - for $3.4bn. Why? Because Western
companies were asleep at the wheel (or paranoid with "security"); because the
Chinese wasted no time; and, according to the Afghan Ministry of Mines, "because
of their package" (in characteristic Chinese style, that includes building a
whopping $6bn railway connecting northern Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan
with western China).
Kabul will get up to $350m a year in royalties. At least 5,000 jobs will be
created, with added benefits such as health clinics, roads and schools. Security
may indeed be a huge problem; there's a war going on and safe transit routes are
a mirage. But as war-weary Afghans are poignantly stressing, that's already a start.
The business track in Afghanistan now runs parallel to the political track.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari visited Tehran twice within only three
weeks. He had two face-to-face meetings with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei. The House of Saud, to put it mildly, freaked out.
After all, this Islamabad-Tehran lovefest totally smashes the myth that the
so-called "Shia crescent" is the greatest threat to Sunnis in the Middle East
and South Asia.
Washington, predictably, was also hardly fond of it. The occupations of
Afghanistan and Iraq can be seen as an attempt by the US to encircle Iran from
both east and west (that's certainly Tehran's view), and Washington believed
Pakistan would play the same role on Iran's southeast border.
In a fascinating exchange that must have choked many a throat across the
Potomac, Khamenei told Zardari that Pakistan's "real enemy" was the West, "and
the US on top of it", while Zardari told Khamenei that Iran was a "model of
resistance and path to progress". What next? Karachi taxis sporting Khomeini
magnets?
But the most fascinating part is that Tehran and Islamabad are now discussing
not only security matters but also business, such as an upcoming free-trade
agreement and a currency swap scheme that would move both countries away from
the US dollar.
On the security front, Islamabad has proposed what would be an Integrated Border
Management Regime - that is, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan fighting together
against drug trafficking. That also happens to be Russia's number-one priority
in Central and South Asia. Over twelve tonnes of pure heroin - that's over 3bn
single doses - reach Russia every year from Afghanistan.
On the business front, it was all about the crucial Pipelineistan gambit, the
Iran-Pakistan (IP), also known as the "peace pipeline". IP may supply as much as
50 per cent of Pakistan's energy needs.
There are delays, of course. By the end of 2012, Iran will have built its whole
stretch of pipeline up to the Pakistani border. Yet Pakistan will only start
working on its own stretch by early 2012.
But by 2015 IP should be online, forming a strategic umbilical cord between Shia
Iran and majority-Sunni Pakistan and rocking the Eurasian geopolitical equation.
IP will cross ultra-strategic Balochistan, which is not only dripping with
resources but which also, as a transit corridor, provides the shortest access to
the warm waters of the Arabian Sea.
*Iran and Pakistan as allies?*
So look for another unintended consequence of Washington's obsession with the
war on terror: Iran and Pakistan as increasingly close allies. One can already
foresee Tehran sharing on-the-ground intelligence with Islamabad on Washington's
myriad covert ops inside Pakistani territory.
Another unintended consequence - unthinkable only two or three years ago - is
that now Tehran, which is tremendously influential in northwest Afghanistan,
views the Taliban the Mullah Omar way: as an indigenous "national resistance"
movement against US/NATO occupation and perpetual military bases. Moreover,
Tehran is also in sync with Islamabad in their support for the wily Hamid
Karzai, who has increasingly distanced himself from Washington.
There are huge problems, of course. Although Zardari told Khamenei that
Islamabad supports Karzai and an "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned" peace process,
hardly any progress can be made without a substantial reversal of Pakistan's
official Afghan policy, which considers Afghanistan as little more than
"strategic depth" in a confrontation with India, and which does everything to
contain India's influence in Afghanistan.
Moreover, regional priorities differ. Moscow worries about its own "war on
drugs," wants NATO out of its backyard, and does not want US military bases in
Afghanistan. Beijing worries about the Taliban influencing the Uighurs in
Xinjiang. Tehran will keep cultivating its privileged relationship with Tajiks,
Hazaras and Uzbeks - and not Pashtuns.
What is certain is that any unilateral Made-in-USA road map for Afghanistan, of
the "surge, bribe and stay" variety, is doomed to failure without input from
these key Eurasian players.
Tragedy aside, the US/NATO war in Afghanistan is now seriously flirting with
surrealism - witness the Taliban's accusation that the West hacked their
website, their phones, their emails and spread false rumours of Mullah Omar's
death. Forget about "medieval towelheads on hash"; these are iPhone-friendly
Taliban who tweet and post on Facebook - and command quite a following.
Unsurprisingly, gloomy war-machine NATO "declines to comment".
It will be fascinating to watch what schemes the House of Saud will concoct to
smash the new business-friendly Tehran-Islamabad axis; after all, Saudi Arabia
essentially treats Pakistan as a sort of political/economic annex.
But not as fascinating as watching which Russian, Chinese and Indian companies
will make a killing off of Afghanistan's mineral wealth while the Atlanticist
West bomb themselves to irrelevancy.
*
Pepe Escobar is the roving correspondent for the Asia Times. His latest book is
Obama Does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). He may be reached at
pepeasia at yahoo.com.*
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/2011725135937812465.html
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