[Peace-discuss] Nate Silver: Paul Moves Into Lead in Iowa Forecast (driven by Dems and independents)

[Robert Naiman]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/paul-moves-into-lead-in-iowa-forecast/#more-20579

Note that in the latest Public Policy Polling survey, which shows Paul ahead

Paul takes lead as Gingrich collapses in Iowa
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1218925.pdf

there is significant evidence of Dem/anti-war action:

"Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a
Republican contest.  Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for
Romney and 11% for Gingrich. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the
24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney
is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters."

see also the cross tabs: more of Ron Paul's supporters in the poll
voted in the Democratic caucus in 2008 than voted in the Republican
caucus, even though Ron Paul was a candidate in the Republican caucus in 2008.


--
Robert Naiman
Policy Director
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman at justforeignpolicy.org