[Peace-discuss] Nate Silver: Paul Moves Into Lead in Iowa Forecast (driven by Dems and independents)

[Robert Naiman]

Yeah, the whole question of "crossover" in the US is pretty murky.
What's a "Democrat"? What's a "Republican"? Why shouldn't I vote where
I think I will have the most influence? Arguably the different rules
in different states about who can vote in what primary for federal
candidates violate the equal protection clause of the Constitution,
according to the standard used by the Supreme Court in Bush v. Gore.



On Tue, Dec 20, 2011 at 9:55 AM, "E. Wayne Johnson 朱稳森" <ewj at pigs.ag> wrote:
> One reason often given for crossover voters in the primary is
> that one party is trying to weaken the other by casting votes for
> a cat's paw.
>
> In this case, it's citizens who care about their country and their world
> who are pulling for Ron Paul.
>
>
>
> On 12/20/11 9:22, Robert Naiman wrote:
>>
>>
>> http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/paul-moves-into-lead-in-iowa-forecast/#more-20579
>>
>> Note that in the latest Public Policy Polling survey, which shows Paul
>> ahead
>>
>> Paul takes lead as Gingrich collapses in Iowa
>> http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1218925.pdf
>>
>> there is significant evidence of Dem/anti-war action:
>>
>> "Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a
>> Republican contest.  Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for
>> Romney and 11% for Gingrich. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the
>> 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney
>> is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters."
>>
>> see also the cross tabs: more of Ron Paul's supporters in the poll
>> voted in the Democratic caucus in 2008 than voted in the Republican
>> caucus, even though Ron Paul was a candidate in the Republican caucus in
>> 2008.
>>
>>
>> --
>> Robert Naiman
>> Policy Director
>> Just Foreign Policy
>> www.justforeignpolicy.org
>> naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
>> _______________________________________________
>> Peace-discuss mailing list
>> Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
>> http://lists.chambana.net/mailman/listinfo/peace-discuss
>>
>>
>>
>
>



-- 
Robert Naiman
Policy Director
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman at justforeignpolicy.org