[Peace-discuss] Fw: [socialistdiscussion] Shit to hit fan in Iran

[David Johnson]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: Jim Del Duca 
To: socialistdiscussion at yahoogroups.com 
Sent: Wednesday, December 28, 2011 9:23 PM
Subject: Re: [socialistdiscussion] Shit to hit fan in Iran


  
Opportunities for capitalist profit every step of the way!  You forgot to mention that it is also a U.S. election year and that "wartime" presidents are always re-elected!  Hot Dog! Here they go again!  The soldiers who left Iraq aren't even unpacked yet....



On Wed, Dec 28, 2011 at 5:08 PM, David <tialsedov at yahoo.com> wrote:

    
  Things are getting hot over in the Straights of Horumuz. Right now it is at the level of rhetorical brinksmanship. But it is getting serious.

  It goes like this: US wants regime change. Iran has continually for 2 decades tried to make nice to the US and sent out feelers to the US about negotiating something. It even let the US fly over Iranian territory during the post 9-11 Afghan invasion. Iran's economy has been in a slow dive down the drain for about the same period, that is the end of the Iraq Iran war.

  It is using the fake excuse of Iranian proliferation to deploy "shock and awe" on Iranian facilities with the futile belief it would initiate regime change.

  In 1987/88 there was the 'tanker war' with Iraqi's hitting Iranian bound/embarking tankers and Iran returning the favor. At that time Iran used it's old air force and, speed boats laden with TNT and some 12.8 old Russian heavy machine guns (essentially 50 cals). They always did a little damage but never succeeded in stopping the US from escorting oil laden ships out of the area.

  Today's Iran is something else. Weaker economically, much stronger militarily, at least in terms of anti-ship defense and some offensive missile abilities. It has the fastest known torpedo in the world today, so says various defense journals. It's air force still sucks. But it has a LOT of missiles including anti-ship missiles. Not good for those that oppose them.

  The US is stronger too, a là technology and would, if it wanted to, overwhelm and destroy most, but not all, Iranian navy and offensive capabilities. In any conflict many civilians would die, eventually, as the fight goes 'inland' to 'nuclear facilities' and military bases. Iran could cause all sorts of trouble vis-a-vis Iraq a country whose majority Shia population is at least vaguely sympathetic to Iran and in many cases actively so.

  Iranian anti-air craft capability has greatly increased. Enough to take out a US air attack on Iran? Maybe, but unlikely. It's not as if the US doesn't know what it's up against and are preparing for it.

  My old scenario possibly still holds: The US embargo's Iran's outward flow of oil. Prevents gasoline and diesel from getting in. Seizes oil platforms, disables oil unloading facilities or occupies same along with offshore oil platforms.

  It's a very scary scenario. Among the military talking heads I've been listening to their is a belief that on the outside the Iranian's could close the straight for about 1 to 3 weeks, then not. Simply the Iranian ability to do this would be lying on the bottom of the Straight or in ashes on shore.

  Looking at $300/bbl oil if a shot gets fired.

  'nuff said but tons to say on the politics of this.

  David






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