[Peace-discuss] [sf-core] Fwd: analysis of the Irish election

Sat Feb 26 18:17:44 CST 2011

Thanks for forwarding this to the list Carl. It's a weird election, and bitter-sweet for myself and many of those I've been talking with today.

The Labour Party, of which I'm a member, looks set to have one of its biggest representations ever: with about 1/2 the seats yet to declare it's already gained more seats than it had after the last election. It looks set to have between 30 and 40 seats, which will make it the second-largest party in the Dáil for the first time since 1928. It's a member of the PES, and ranges from social democrat to democratic socialist in its membership. The parties further to the left will also see growth, including the Socialist Party and People Before Profit, and might well reach 7. It should be noted that the parliamentary rules do allow them to work with other small groupings to create a 'technical' group, so that's almost certain to occur.

I'd agree with the analysis of your source about Sinn Fein - the party postures as Left, but has been happily working with conservative parties in the North for some time, and is understood by many to be more interested in rhetorical positions it sees as giving it electoral advantage, than in actual Left policies. As an example, the party (rather quietly) supported the bailout of the Irish banks over the past few years, voting for the move at key times. (Labour, in contrast, was the only party in the Dáil to oppose the bailout.) This is a party for which the 'national question' is the primary motivating factor. As I write the party holds 8 seats, and might even double the seats it had in the last Dáil. (It had five entering the election.)

Apart from the frustrating growth in Fine Gael, a center-right party affiliated with the Christian Democrats (traditionally gaining support from professionals and large farmers, and which seems to be moving further to the right on economic and social issues), there's a second issue to be noted: while Fianna Fáil has seen its vote collapse, several of the new independents are 'gene pool' candidates - that is, they are former FF members (sometimes until very recently) who ran as independents, avoiding the taint of the party, but with the same centrist/faux populist background.

Even with this, you could be looking at a FF party (even after the reabsorb many of those gene pool independents) that will be about 1/3 the size of the outgoing party (so sitting around 25 rather than around 75). A broad left (Labour / SF / ULA) of almost 50 seats. FG are predicted, at present, to end up around 75 seats. We're likely to see Labour in government with FG (as FF are toxic as potential partners for either FG or Labour at present, and neither party has the numbers to build a coalition with any other combination of partners).

Andrew

On 2011 Feabh 26, at 17:58, C. G. ESTABROOK wrote:

> -------- Original Message --------
> Subject: [lbo-talk] First results announced in Irish general election
> Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2011 22:38:47 +0000 (GMT)
> From: cmk1 at eircom.net
> Reply-To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
> To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
> 
> Don't read too much into the apparent victory of the neo-liberal Fine Gael. The 
> next Irish parliament will have the largest ever left representation. The United 
> Left Alliance already has four seats secured; once it gets to seven it can form 
> a so-called 'technical group' which means it must be given a certain segment of 
> speaking time (thus overcoming 'quaint' liberal democratic parliamentary rules 
> designed to ensure small left parties make no impact).
> 
> It looks like the Socialist Workers Party's Richard Boyd Barrett might just 
> secure a seat. Mick Wallace has been elected in Wexford. An utter oddity from a 
> conventional left perspective. A big property developer over the past twenty 
> years, he has been sympathetic to left groups allowing huge banners stating 
> 'People Before Profit' to be draped over the scaffolding of his sites in Dublin; 
> he has provided the Communist Party with arguably the snazziest bookshop in 
> Dublin, and he has employed Turkish construction workers who were sacked by the 
> building firm GAMA when they blew the whistle on this extreme low-pay and 
> exploitation.
> 
> Sinn Fein will also be strongly represented in the next Dáil; and they have 
> consistently argued outside of the dominant sado-monetarist orthodoxy. While I 
> personally wouldn't regard them as 'Left' wing, many other Irish people would 
> have no hesitation in doing so. And in Gerry Adams who has been elected in the 
> Louth constituency, they will be led by one of the most important figures in 
> recent Irish history.
> 
> Also, the desertion of Fianna Fáil by Irish workers will be a real boon for the 
> socialist Left in years to come. This party's dominance since 1932 has been 
> based upon its ability to cultivate a mass working class backing. It's recent 
> embrace of extreme neo-liberal austerity means that backing in gone, and the 
> material conditions in Ireland are such that the working class will never return 
> to Fianna Fáil in numbers again.
> 
> Yes, an avowedly Thatcherite party will lead the next government and some of its 
> prominent members - Leo Varadkar, Lucinda Creighton, Richard Bruton, Simon 
> Coveney - would fit right in with the UK Tories or the Republicans. But things 
> have changed immensely in Ireland, it's game on for the Left and the next few 
> years will be mighty interesting.
> 
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