[Peace-discuss] [sf-core] Fwd: analysis of the Irish election

[C. G. ESTABROOK]

Will the government that emerges be able to do anything about the bail-out?

And will this rather punctuated Left have much influence on the outcome?

On 2/26/11 6:17 PM, "Dr. Andrew Ó Baoill" wrote:
> Thanks for forwarding this to the list Carl. It's a weird election, and
> bitter-sweet for myself and many of those I've been talking with today.
>
>
> The Labour Party, of which I'm a member, looks set to have one of its biggest
> representations ever: with about 1/2 the seats yet to declare it's already
> gained more seats than it had after the last election. It looks set to have
> between 30 and 40 seats, which will make it the second-largest party in the Dáil
> for the first time since 1928. It's a member of the PES, and ranges from social
> democrat to democratic socialist in its membership. The parties further to the
> left will also see growth, including the Socialist Party and People Before
> Profit, and might well reach 7. It should be noted that the parliamentary rules
> do allow them to work with other small groupings to create a 'technical' group,
> so that's almost certain to occur.
>
> I'd agree with the analysis of your source about Sinn Fein - the party postures
> as Left, but has been happily working with conservative parties in the North for
> some time, and is understood by many to be more interested in rhetorical
> positions it sees as giving it electoral advantage, than in actual Left
> policies. As an example, the party (rather quietly) supported the bailout of the
> Irish banks over the past few years, voting for the move at key times. (Labour,
> in contrast, was the only party in the Dáil to oppose the bailout.) This is a
> party for which the 'national question' is the primary motivating factor. As I
> write the party holds 8 seats, and might even double the seats it had in the
> last Dáil. (It had five entering the election.)
>
> Apart from the frustrating growth in Fine Gael, a center-right party affiliated
> with the Christian Democrats (traditionally gaining support from professionals
> and large farmers, and which seems to be moving further to the right on economic
> and social issues), there's a second issue to be noted: while Fianna Fáil has
> seen its vote collapse, several of the new independents are 'gene pool'
> candidates - that is, they are former FF members (sometimes until very recently)
> who ran as independents, avoiding the taint of the party, but with the same
> centrist/faux populist background.
>
> Even with this, you could be looking at a FF party (even after the reabsorb many
> of those gene pool independents) that will be about 1/3 the size of the outgoing
> party (so sitting around 25 rather than around 75). A broad left (Labour / SF /
> ULA) of almost 50 seats. FG are predicted, at present, to end up around 75
> seats. We're likely to see Labour in government with FG (as FF are toxic as
> potential partners for either FG or Labour at present, and neither party has the
> numbers to build a coalition with any other combination of partners).
>
> Andrew
>
> On 2011 Feabh 26, at 17:58, C. G. ESTABROOK wrote:
>
>> -------- Original Message --------
>> Subject: [lbo-talk] First results announced in Irish general election
>> Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2011 22:38:47 +0000 (GMT)
>> From: cmk1 at eircom.net <mailto:cmk1%40eircom.net>
>> Reply-To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org <mailto:lbo-talk%40lbo-talk.org>
>> To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org <mailto:lbo-talk%40lbo-talk.org>
>>
>> Don't read too much into the apparent victory of the neo-liberal Fine Gael. The
>> next Irish parliament will have the largest ever left representation. The United
>> Left Alliance already has four seats secured; once it gets to seven it can form
>> a so-called 'technical group' which means it must be given a certain segment of
>> speaking time (thus overcoming 'quaint' liberal democratic parliamentary rules
>> designed to ensure small left parties make no impact).
>>
>> It looks like the Socialist Workers Party's Richard Boyd Barrett might just
>> secure a seat. Mick Wallace has been elected in Wexford. An utter oddity from a
>> conventional left perspective. A big property developer over the past twenty
>> years, he has been sympathetic to left groups allowing huge banners stating
>> 'People Before Profit' to be draped over the scaffolding of his sites in Dublin;
>> he has provided the Communist Party with arguably the snazziest bookshop in
>> Dublin, and he has employed Turkish construction workers who were sacked by the
>> building firm GAMA when they blew the whistle on this extreme low-pay and
>> exploitation.
>>
>> Sinn Fein will also be strongly represented in the next Dáil; and they have
>> consistently argued outside of the dominant sado-monetarist orthodoxy. While I
>> personally wouldn't regard them as 'Left' wing, many other Irish people would
>> have no hesitation in doing so. And in Gerry Adams who has been elected in the
>> Louth constituency, they will be led by one of the most important figures in
>> recent Irish history.
>>
>> Also, the desertion of Fianna Fáil by Irish workers will be a real boon for the
>> socialist Left in years to come. This party's dominance since 1932 has been
>> based upon its ability to cultivate a mass working class backing. It's recent
>> embrace of extreme neo-liberal austerity means that backing in gone, and the
>> material conditions in Ireland are such that the working class will never return
>> to Fianna Fáil in numbers again.
>>
>> Yes, an avowedly Thatcherite party will lead the next government and some of its
>> prominent members - Leo Varadkar, Lucinda Creighton, Richard Bruton, Simon
>> Coveney - would fit right in with the UK Tories or the Republicans. But things
>> have changed immensely in Ireland, it's game on for the Left and the next few
>> years will be mighty interesting.
>>
>> ###