[Peace-discuss] CNN finds Tea Party support for war same as Rs

[Robert Naiman]

>From reading other polls in the past, I would expect them to be highly
correlated. But correlation is not necessarily causation, and I would
expect much of the causation runs the other way - if you oppose the
war, and someone asks you if you think it's going well, you are more
likely to say no. In addition, if you oppose the war, you are more
receptive to bad news about it, and conversely. And you are more
likely to be exposed to bad news about it, etc.

Another element: over time, there is a chunk of the population that is
totally opposed to the Empire, and a chunk that totally supports the
Empire, and a swing group in the middle. The constant groups, by
definition, are not going to be swayed much by good or bad news. It's
the swing group that moves.

After Reagan bombed Libya, when you could scarcely find an iota of
criticism anywhere in the media or public discourse, and it was all
rah rah go USA, there was a poll that showed something like 17-19%
opposed to the bombing. So that's one measure of the hard core
opposition: no amount of media hysterics will move 20% of the
population to support bombing other people's countries. I would guess,
from reading other polls, that African-Americans comprise a
disproportionate share of that 20%.

On Tue, Jan 4, 2011 at 4:29 PM, E. Wayne Johnson <ewj at pigs.ag> wrote:
> it would  be interesting to see a cross-tab between
> "Favour/oppose" and "Badly/well".
>
> In other words do you oppose the war because it's not going so well
> for "our side" [futility] or does the lack of success make you want to
> get more support for the war or....
>
>
> On 1/5/2011 4:06 AM, Karen Medina wrote:
>
> Thanks Robert.
> Interviews with 1,008 adult Americans conducted by telephone by
> Opinion Research Corporation on December 17-19, 2010.
>
> Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war in Afghanistan?
> December 17-19, 2010
> Favor:         35%
> Oppose:      63%
> No opinion:    2%
>
> In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in
> Afghanistan – very well, moderately well, moderately badly, or very
> badly?
> December 17-19, 2010
> Very well              2%
> Moderately well   42%
> Moderately badly 35%
> Very badly           21%
> No opinion             1%
>
> Those most likely to support the U.S. war in Afghanistan: White male
> Tea Party supporters or Republicans under 50 who earn $50K or more
> living in rural areas
>
> On Tue, Jan 4, 2011 at 11:06 AM, Robert Naiman <naiman.uiuc at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
> 52/45 TP support vs. 52/44 Rs.
> http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/12/28/rel17m.pdf
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Peace-discuss mailing list
> Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
> http://lists.chambana.net/mailman/listinfo/peace-discuss
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Peace-discuss mailing list
> Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
> http://lists.chambana.net/mailman/listinfo/peace-discuss
>
>



-- 
Robert Naiman
Policy Director
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman at justforeignpolicy.org