[Peace-discuss] CNN finds Tea Party support for war same as Rs

[E. Wayne Johnson]

The data analysis that CNN provides in the .pdf doesnt include
any compound stratification at all.

But looking at the time course trends, there has been a trend toward 
thinking (or saying, actually)
that the Afgh war is going well while during the same time a trend 
toward opposition to the war.

The problem with getting the war stopped seems to be more related to 
hysteresis
but hysterics do seem to make the news what it is.

*

We are regularly treated to images of redwing blackbirds being scraped 
off the tarmac in
Arkansas.  It's an international crisis it seems.  I imagine that it 
would be more entertaining if they would provide
"I'm your mailman" as backdrop music.

*

"You'd PAY to know what you REALLY think!" - Dobbs, 1961.


On 1/5/2011 6:05 AM, Robert Naiman wrote:
> > From reading other polls in the past, I would expect them to be highly
> correlated. But correlation is not necessarily causation, and I would
> expect much of the causation runs the other way - if you oppose the
> war, and someone asks you if you think it's going well, you are more
> likely to say no. In addition, if you oppose the war, you are more
> receptive to bad news about it, and conversely. And you are more
> likely to be exposed to bad news about it, etc.
>
> Another element: over time, there is a chunk of the population that is
> totally opposed to the Empire, and a chunk that totally supports the
> Empire, and a swing group in the middle. The constant groups, by
> definition, are not going to be swayed much by good or bad news. It's
> the swing group that moves.
>
> After Reagan bombed Libya, when you could scarcely find an iota of
> criticism anywhere in the media or public discourse, and it was all
> rah rah go USA, there was a poll that showed something like 17-19%
> opposed to the bombing. So that's one measure of the hard core
> opposition: no amount of media hysterics will move 20% of the
> population to support bombing other people's countries. I would guess,
> from reading other polls, that African-Americans comprise a
> disproportionate share of that 20%.
>
> On Tue, Jan 4, 2011 at 4:29 PM, E. Wayne Johnson<ewj at pigs.ag>  wrote:
>    
>> it would  be interesting to see a cross-tab between
>> "Favour/oppose" and "Badly/well".
>>
>> In other words do you oppose the war because it's not going so well
>> for "our side" [futility] or does the lack of success make you want to
>> get more support for the war or....
>>
>>
>> On 1/5/2011 4:06 AM, Karen Medina wrote:
>>
>> Thanks Robert.
>> Interviews with 1,008 adult Americans conducted by telephone by
>> Opinion Research Corporation on December 17-19, 2010.
>>
>> Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war in Afghanistan?
>> December 17-19, 2010
>> Favor:         35%
>> Oppose:      63%
>> No opinion:    2%
>>
>> In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in
>> Afghanistan – very well, moderately well, moderately badly, or very
>> badly?
>> December 17-19, 2010
>> Very well              2%
>> Moderately well   42%
>> Moderately badly 35%
>> Very badly           21%
>> No opinion             1%
>>
>> Those most likely to support the U.S. war in Afghanistan: White male
>> Tea Party supporters or Republicans under 50 who earn $50K or more
>> living in rural areas
>>
>> On Tue, Jan 4, 2011 at 11:06 AM, Robert Naiman<naiman.uiuc at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>> 52/45 TP support vs. 52/44 Rs.
>> http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/12/28/rel17m.pdf
>>
>>
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