[Peace-discuss] Japanese warning

Sat Mar 12 21:27:36 CST 2011

Nuclear Experts Explain Worst-Case Scenario at Fukushima Power Plant

The type of accident occurring now in Japan derives from a loss of offsite AC 
power and then a subsequent failure of emergency power on site. Engineers there 
are racing to restore AC power to prevent a core meltdown.

By Steve Mirsky  | March 12, 2011 |

<http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=fukushima-core>

On 3/12/11 9:02 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
> Published on Saturday, March 12, 2011 by Agence France-Presse
> US Experts: 'Chernobyl-Like' Crisis for Japan ‎
>
> WASHINGTON - US nuclear experts warned Saturday that pumping sea water to cool 
> a quake-hit Japanese nuclear reactor was an "act of desperation" that may 
> foreshadow a Chernobyl-like disaster.
>
> Several experts, in a conference call with reporters, also predicted that 
> regardless of the outcome at the Fukushima No. 1 atomic plant crisis, the 
> accident will seriously damage the nuclear power renaissance.
>
> "The situation has become desperate enough that they apparently don't have the 
> capability to deliver fresh water or plain water to cool the reactor and
> stabilize it, and now, in an act of desperation, are having to resort to 
> diverting and using sea water," said Robert Alvarez, who works on nuclear 
> disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies.
>
> "I would describe this measure as a 'Hail Mary' pass," added Alvarez, using 
> American football slang for a final effort to win the game as time expires.
>
> An 8.9 magnitude earthquake that struck Japan on Friday set off the emergency 
> at the plant, which was then hit by an explosion Saturday that prompted an 
> evacuation of the surrounding area.
>
> Workers doused the stricken reactor with sea water to try to avert 
> catastrophe, after the quake knocked out power to the cooling system.
>
> What occurred at the plant was a "station blackout," which is the loss of 
> offsite air-conditioning power combined with the failure of onsite power, in 
> this case diesel generators.
>
> "It is considered to be extremely unlikely but the station blackout has been 
> one of the great concerns for decades," said Ken Bergeron, a physicist who has 
> worked on nuclear reactor accident simulation.
>
> "We're in uncharted territory," he said.
>
> The reactor has been shut down but the concern is the heat in the core, which 
> can melt if it's not cooled. If the core melts through the reactor vessel, 
> Bergeron explained, it could flow onto the floor of the containment building. 
> If that happens, the structure likely will fail, the experts said.
>
> "The containment building at this plant is certainly stronger than that at 
> Chernobyl but a lot less strong than at Three Mile Island, so time will tell," 
> he said.
>
> Peter Bradford, former head of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said that 
> if the cooling attempts fail, "at that point it's a Chernobyl-like situation 
> where you start dumping in sand and cement."
>
> The two worst nuclear accidents on record are the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in 
> Ukraine and the partial core meltdown of the Three Mile Island reactor in the 
> US state of Pennsylvania in 1979.
>
> Another expert said the Japanese accident will rank as one of the three worst 
> in history.
>
> "If it continues, if they don't get control of this and... we go from a 
> partial meltdown of the core to a full meltdown, this will be a complete 
> disaster," Joseph Cirincione, the head of the Ploughshares Fund, said in an 
> interview on CNN.
>
> Cirincione faulted Japanese authorities for providing partial and conflicting 
> information about what was happening at the plant.
>
> Cirincione said the presence of radioactive cesium in the atmosphere after the 
> plant was vented indicated that a partial meltdown was underway.
>
> "That told the operators that the fuel rods had been exposed, that the water 
> level had dropped below the fuel rods and the fuel rods were starting to burn, 
> releasing cesium," he said.
>
> Japan's nuclear safety agency rated the Fukushima accident at four on the 
> International Nuclear Event Scale from 0 to 7, meaning an accident "with local 
> consequences," an official said Sunday.
>
> The Three Mile Island accident was rated five while Chernobyl was a seven.
>
> The government declared an atomic emergency and said tens of thousands of 
> people living within 12 miles (20 kilometers) of the plant should leave after 
> an explosion at the nuclear plant Saturday.
>
> "This is obviously a significant setback for the so-called nuclear 
> renaissance," said Bradford, the former NRC commissioner.
>
> "The image of a nuclear power plant blowing up before your eyes on the 
> television screen is a first."
>
> But a spokesman for the World Nuclear Association said in an interview with 
> CBS News that the threat of a full meltdown is minimal.
>
> "I think that possibility is remote at the best of times and is diminishing by 
> the hour as the fuel gets cooler and generates less heat," said Ian Hore-Lacy, 
> spokesman for the industry organization.
>
> © 2011 Agence France-Presse
>
>
> On 3/12/11 8:58 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
>> Japan's nuclear power operator has chequered past
>> The company at the centre of a nuclear reactor crisis following the biggest 
>> earthquake in Japan's recorded history has had a rocky past in an industry 
>> plagued by scandal.
>> | March 12, 2011 |
>>
>> See 
>> <http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=japans-nuclear-power-operator-has-c>.
>>
>> On 3/12/11 8:46 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
>>> Published on Saturday, March 12, 2011 by the Associated Press
>>> Huge Rally in Germany: 'Nuclear Power? No Thanks!'
>>>
>>> BERLIN - An explosion at a Japanese nuclear power plant has given new fuel to a
>>> long-running dispute over the technology's future in Germany, where 
>>> thousands on
>>> Saturday demonstrated against plans to extend the life of the country's nuclear
>>> power stations.
>>>
>>> Organizers said tens of thousands formed a human chain between the
>>> Neckarwestheim nuclear plant and the southwestern city of Stuttgart, which are
>>> 28 miles (45 kilometers) appart- some waving yellow flags with the slogan
>>> "Nuclear power - no thanks." Police didn't immediately give a figure.
>>>
>>> The demonstration was planned long before the post-earthquake blast at Japan's
>>> Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, but the fears of possible disaster gave an added 
>>> focus
>>> to opponents of the technology in Germany.
>>>
>>> Saturday's explosion destroyed a building housing the reactor, but a radiation
>>> leak was decreasing despite fears of a meltdown from damage caused by a 
>>> powerful
>>> earthquake and tsunami, officials in Japan said.
>>>
>>> Germany's government last year decided to extend the life of its 17 nuclear
>>> plans for an average 12 extra years. A previous government had said it wanted
>>> them all shut by 2021.
>>>
>>> While Germany - unlike some of its European Union partners - has no plans to
>>> build any new plants, the extension was divisive.
>>>
>>> The mishap in Japan, which comes two weeks before a closely fought state
>>> election in the region where Saturday's protest was held, prompted new 
>>> criticism
>>> from the opposition.
>>>
>>> Events at Fukushima "show that, even in a high-tech country like Japan that is
>>> equipped for all eventualities, nuclear power is an uncontrollable, highly
>>> dangerous, risky technology," the leadership of the opposition Greens said in a
>>> statement.
>>>
>>> Matthias Miersch, a lawmaker with the main opposition Social Democrats, urged
>>> the government to scrap immediately the decision to extend German nuclear
>>> plants' lives. The third opposition party, the Left Party, called for a
>>> worldwide moratorium on expanding nuclear power capacity.
>>>
>>> Nuclear energy has been unpopular in Germany since an explosion at a nuclear
>>> reactor at Chernobyl, Ukraine, in 1986, sent a cloud of radiation over much of
>>> Europe.
>>>
>>> Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, has argued that Germany needs to keep 
>>> nuclear
>>> energy for now as a "bridging technology" until it has developed more renewable
>>> power sources.
>>>
>>> Her deputy, Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, on Saturday pushed aside
>>> questions about the government's nuclear policy.
>>>
>>> With thousands likely dead or missing in Japan, "Germany's first answer 
>>> can't be
>>> that ... a political argument breaks out here because there are state election
>>> campaigns going on," he said.
>>>
>>> Merkel's center-right coalition faces a tight battle to keep control of the
>>> regional government in Baden-Wuerttemberg in a March 27 election, and two other
>>> votes also are looming.
>>>
>>> © 2011 Associated Press
>>>
>>> On 3/12/11 6:41 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
>>>> I'd say that there's a good chance they are. Have you been reading Bill Keller
>>>> recently?
>>>>
>>>> The Times regularly puts into practice the poet's advice:
>>>>
>>>> Tell all the Truth but tell it slant —
>>>> Success in Circuit lies
>>>> Too bright for our infirm Delight
>>>> The Truth's superb surprise...
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 3/12/11 6:29 PM, Brussel Morton K. wrote:
>>>>> So what did Broad conclude about "Nuclear Jihad: Can Terrorists Get the 
>>>>> Bomb?"?
>>>>> He's not only written for the NYT, and moreover, not everyone who writes for
>>>>> the Times is contaminated….
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mar 12, 2011, at 5:55 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Given the tie-ups between the NYT and the nuclear industry, I'd think we'd
>>>>>> at least want a second opinion...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The author of this piece is a long-time Timesman who's written on and
>>>>>> perhaps contributed to US science propaganda. In the run-up to the invasion
>>>>>> of Iraq he published "Germs: Biological Weapons and America's Secret War"
>>>>>> (2001), and in 2007 he did a "Discovery Channel" program called "Nuclear
>>>>>> Jihad: Can Terrorists Get the Bomb?"
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 3/12/11 5:17 PM, Brussel Morton K. wrote:
>>>>>>> A fair report by William Broad on the dangers of radioactivity from the
>>>>>>> severely damaged Japanese reactor. We don't yet know the intensity of its
>>>>>>> radiations, and so we don't know if they are a serious problem. We are
>>>>>>> constantly exposed to nuclear radiations, and the safety limits imposed by
>>>>>>> the responsible agencies are considered super safe; there could be very
>>>>>>> high multiples of those limits and yet have no observed effects on human
>>>>>>> health (despite the claims of someone like Wasserman).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/13/science/13radiation.html?hp
>>>>>>>
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