[Peace-discuss] CIA vs. Pentagon in Pakistan

[C. G. Estabrook]

[An almost incredible story, but it fits the facts as we know them... --CGE]


"...on March 17, the day after Davis was whisked away, another drone attack 
occurred in North Waziristan, but this time it did not target a single militant. 
It killed 41 people, including women and children; all ‘collateral damage’ ... 
It is my judgment that the drone attack on March 17 was deliberate ... because 
the CIA was furious over the deal negotiated between the two militaries to oust 
them from Pakistan...."


How the Pentagon Supervised Raymond Davis' Release and
How the CIA Took Its Revenge: Admiral Mullen's Secret Deal
By SHAUKAT QADIR

On February 23, at a beach resort, Gen Ashfaq Kiyani, Pakistan army’s chief 
assisted by a two star officer met with Admiral Mike Mullen, US Chairman, Joint 
Chiefs of Staff, assisted by Gen. David Petraeus, and three other high ranking 
officials, to find a military-diplomatic solution to untangle this web that CIA 
operatives had spun around both governments. This has been a fairly consistent 
tradition. On every occasion when relations between Pakistan and the United 
States have soured (a not infrequent occurrence) the militaries have remained in 
contact and, invariably, have found a way forward.

The day after this meeting, a military officer posted at the US Embassy in 
Islamabad travelled to Lahore and met Davis in Kot Lakpat jail. Within 48 hours 
of this meeting, almost 50 individuals associated with the Tehreek-eTaliban 
Pakistan (TTP), including Pashtuns, Punjabis, and some foreigners (nationalities 
unknown, though one of them is said to be an Aryan) who had been in contact with 
Davis were arrested. Presumably, Davis ‘sang’, though probably to only a limited 
degree, on instructions.

Within the same period, a large number of Americans, estimated at between 30 to 
45, who had been residing in rented accommodations (like Davis and his 
associates who had killed a motorcyclist while unsuccessfully attempting to 
rescue Davis) outside the Embassy/Consulate premises in Islamabad, Peshawar, 
Lahore, Karachi, and Quetta left for the US. It is safe to conclude that these 
were either CIA, Black ops, or associated personnel from security agencies like Xe.

The intelligence business is broadly divided into two categories: human 
intelligence, known as HUMINT and electronic intelligence, known as ELINT. The 
latter has numerous subdivisions: SIGINT (Signals intelligence, also known as 
COMINT; communication intelligence), Imagery intelligence etc. It appears, 
therefore, that the deal struck between the military leadership included a shut 
down of CIA’s HUMINT operations in Pakistan, retaining only ELINT, Davis would 
‘sing’, within limits, of course, and only then could Blood Money be negotiated 
for his release. And the US would be bled in that final deal also so as to 
ensure the safety and the future of the immediate families of both Davis’s victims.

At the height of the debate on the question of Raymond Davis’ immunity from 
trial for murder, this writer emphasized that Pakistan could not release him 
without a trial. A trial took duly place and, in accordance with prevalent law 
in Pakistan, the next of kin of the deceased young men, pardoned Davis in return 
for ‘Blood Money’. However outlandish this law might seem to those peoples whose 
countries have their based on Anglo-Saxon principles, such is the law in 
Pakistan and so there was nothing underhand in what transpired.

Amongst analysts and journalists there were basically two opposing responses to 
his release, though there was (and is) an occasional sane voice to be heard, 
throughout the saga. One category of people had been arguing since Davis’ arrest 
that he should be granted immunity since Pakistan, given its precarious economy, 
weak government, and the prevalent security situation, could not afford to fall 
afoul of the US. For this factionhis release through the judicial system was the 
next best outcome of the disastrous mistake that had been committed in arresting 
him!

The opposing view was that it is time and more, that Pakistan asserts its 
sovereignty and national pride to ensure that Davis is awarded no less than his 
due: the death penalty. It is ironic that the bulk of those who held this view 
are all supporters of the imposition of Islamic laws including those on 
blasphemy, Blood Money (the law that ensured Davis’ pardon), and a host of other 
issues and, even after Davis’ release under these laws, any attempt to get rid 
of such laws would be opposed by them, tooth and nail.

While the accusations leveled by the prosecution that the families of Faizan and 
Faheem, the two men killed by Davis, were coerced into accepting the deal 
offered to them in exchange for their pardoning Davis, is a pack of nonsense, 
since the entire family was under the active protection of the Pakistan’s 
Inter-Services Intelligence, there is absolutely no doubt that the ISI (and, 
therefore, GHQ) assisted in brokering the deal. In fact, I would be very 
surprised if both families had not been continuously advised by fairly 
senior-level representatives of the ISI as to what and how much they should ask for.

Accusations leveled against the provincial government for being complicit in 
brokering this deal are, in my view, unfair, since both, the central and 
provincial governments were helpless bystanders. Both governments might, 
however, have heaved a sigh of relief, at the final outcome, since the official 
stand that both governments took was that the case was to be decided by the 
courts and, to that extent, they stand vindicated. It was the court that 
released Davis.

What is more, if the dirt poor next of kin to both deceased decide to take a 
pragmatic view and accept, what would be for them, a fortune, in exchange for 
two loved ones; but dead loved ones, who is anybody to tell them nay? While 
details of the settlement vary in estimate, I am reliably informed that about $ 
1.5 million per family has been paid, with US citizenship (the Promised Land; 
however unpromising it might be in real life!) for a dozen or more members of 
each family, with job guarantees for those of age and education opportunities 
guaranteed for children -- more than they could ever dream of and sufficiently 
tempting for them to pardon the killer.

But how did all this happen so suddenly? After all, it seemed that not only had 
the CIA and ISI fallen out, but US-Pak relations were endangered by the arrest 
of such a low ranking individual. Even Obama had to lie about his diplomatic 
status, seeking immunity from trial for Davis!

Let me state quite categorically that no one outside those who negotiated this 
deal are privy to what actually transpired and they aren’t talking. What is 
more, neither side (American or Pakistani) would know the discussions that took 
place within each side. Having said that; there are some things that some of us 
do know.

It is my considered opinion that, after Musharaf opened all doors permitting CIA 
and its contract agents unlimited access to Pakistan, Pakistan’s GHQ/ISI could 
not have struck a better deal! This was a priceless opportunity to get rid of 
the CIA; it was also a success that could hardly have pleased Langley, on which 
subject, more below.

With Davis milked, even if not for everything he knew, all that Pakistan could 
gain from letting the trial run its course would be to humiliate the US further. 
On the other hand, though the ISI would have compensated the families of its 
operatives killed by Davis; it could not have dreamt of providing them with a 
tithe of what they have received. To add icing to that cake, CIA HUMINT 
operatives have, more or less left (it is a virtual certainty that there are 
plenty left, but they are confined to the Embassy/Consulate compounds); and to 
put cream on the icing, all aid is resumed, withheld payments are being made and 
mutual relations are close to normal.

There was however one strong jolt to the spirit of renewed amity, administered 
by the CIA.

When the US began drone strikes in Pakistan in 2006, drone attacks were 
notoriously inaccurate. Their kill ratio was approximately 2 militants to 8-10 
‘collateral damage’. This was in the Musharaf era. In 2007, after Kiyani took 
over as the army chief, a US drone was threatened and it pulled back, another 
was fired upon. Pakistan’s central government, however, reined Kiyani in and the 
drone attacks recommenced. However, from about March/April 2008, they became 
increasingly accurate, probably due to more accurate HUMINT. In recent times, 
the kill ratio swung dramatically; 8-10 militants to 2 in collateral damage.

While public protests against drone strikes continued, privately there was 
considerable support for them. In fact, it would surprise readers in the US to 
know that, off the record, even tribesmen were also reconciled, so long as the 
strikes had this degree of precise success.

Following Davis’ arrest, there was a lull in drone strikes before they resumed, 
with the same deadly accuracy.

Three days prior to his court appearance on March 16, the strikes again stopped 
and on March 17, the day after Davis was whisked away, another drone attack 
occurred in North Waziristan, but this time it did not target a single militant. 
It killed 41 people, including women and children; all ‘collateral damage’. The 
drone was initially chasing a vehicle crossing the Durand Line to approach a 
village, where a local Jirga (council of elders) was gathered to settle some 
disputes. Having hit it, the drone deliberately turned its missiles towards the 
gathering in the village and let loose a barrage. Eyewitnesses cannot agree 
whether these were four or six, but not less than four missiles; sufficient to 
cause the carnage. Nor was there any evidence found to support the possibility 
that the four passengers in the vehicle the drone was chasing were militants. 
Locals are usually well-informed on such matters.

About a month ago, some helicopter-borne snipers killed nine children in 
Afghanistan who were out gathering firewood. An ex-marine turned journalist 
accused the snipers of deliberate murder. He argued that, with the technology 
available, it was impossible not to be able to differentiate between children 
aged nine to thirteen, carrying sticks, and armed militants.

It is my judgment that the drone attack on March 17 was deliberate, not only 
because of the technology available, but also because the CIA was furious over 
the deal negotiated between the two militaries to oust them from Pakistan. Given 
their record of pretty consistent accuracy for over two years, during which, 
never more than a total of twenty people have been killed, the majority being 
militants, and the manner of the attack, no other credible conclusion comes to mind.

My contention is lent credence by Pakistan’s reaction. Pakistan’s Ambassador in 
Washington DC, Husain Haqqani, delivered the most strongly worded protest that 
he could muster. The US Ambassador in Islamabad was summoned to the Foreign 
Office and was told in no uncertain terms that Pakistan will ‘have to reconsider 
its relations with the US’. So forcefully was he told that, while leaving the 
FO, he was overheard cursing! But most of all, for the first time since he took 
office, three and a half years ago, Gen Kiyani personally condemned this attack 
and, since March 17 , the Pakistan air force is on alert and again patrolling 
the Durand Line.

This drone attack killed forty one; though unlikely, it might also cause some 
temporary problems between the Pakistan army and the Wazir tribe. However, if 
this is deliberate provocation, what the CIA does not appreciate is that it has 
cut off its own nose (or, to be more accurate, the nose of US forces in 
Afghanistan) to spite itself. Members from forty one families will swell the 
numbers of the Wazirs engaged in fighting US forces in Afghanistan; and, in this 
part of the world, the term ‘family’ is a very extended one and their memories 
are very long.

Shaukat Qadir is a retired brigadier and a former president of the Islamabad 
Policy Research Institute. He can be reached at shaukatq at gmail.com

http://www.counterpunch.org/qadir03222011.html