[Peace-discuss] Fw: [socialistdiscussion] Israel to attack Iran?

Sun Oct 23 18:05:32 CDT 2011

----- Original Message ----- 
From: John Reimann 
To: socialist discussion 
Sent: Tuesday, October 18, 2011 10:30 PM
Subject: [socialistdiscussion] Israel to attack Iran?

Here are some articles claiming that the deal to release the imprisoned Israeli soldier is connected with a plan of the Israeli regime to attack Iran in the next few weeks. It also deals with the US claim that Iran had planned to assassinate a Saudi diplomat - which they claim is a set-up (and which I believe is).

2.  Haaretz Monday, October 17, 2011

Latest update 04:09 17.10.11 

The link between Shalit's release and Iran's bomb

The Shalit deal is meant to demonstrate that Netanyahu is a wise, fatherly leader with an aura of greatness.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-link-between-shalit-s-release-and-iran-s-bomb-1.390350

By Sefi Rachlevsky 

For a determined leadership, a deal to free a kidnapped Israeli is like a candy bar waiting on the shelf. In contrast to peace and most other issues, the timing of such a deal depends entirely on Israel's leadership, and public enthusiasm is guaranteed. One word - yes - and the deal is done. It's no accident that the deal for the return of abducted businessman Elhanan Tennenbaum was orchestrated to take place on the day David Appel was indicted for bribery - a development that was supposed to have been followed by charges against then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

The Gilad Shalit deal can't be viewed in isolation. The timing stemmed from three factors. One is the summer's social protest. Regrettably, however, that wasn't a major motive; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is far from viewing the protest as a threat - after all, his numbers in public opinion polls are still good.

A more significant reason is the damage the deal does to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and to the chances of a peace agreement and a withdrawal from the territories. The deal strengthens Hamas and weakens Abbas, thus reducing the diplomatic prospects. And for Netanyahu, that's a worthy end.

Yet even this isn't the most important point. In Netanyahu's view, the PA president has already been thwarted in the United States by AIPAC, evangelical Christians and Congress, which, together, strong-armed U.S. President Barack Obama. Thus, it seems the real story is an attack on Iran.

Anyone who has held an in-depth discussion with the decision-making duo - Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak - could conclude that the timing of the Shalit deal is the prologue to such an attack. The operational reason - that the response to the attack will also come from Gaza, so it's preferable that Shalit not be there - is marginal. The real issue is legitimacy.

Even an extremist leadership needs legitimacy to endanger tens of thousands of its citizens. A principal source of such legitimacy is if the adventure enjoys sweeping support from the heads of the security services, as the Shalit deal did.

But there's one problem: No such support exists; quite the contrary. Even though Barak waged a campaign of persuasion via personal conversations, dozens of generals - past and present leaders of the defense establishment at the level of chief of staff or head of command - vehemently oppose an attack right now. Only one junior officer, Netanyahu's military secretary, doesn't really object.

The reason is simple: According to even the most optimistic assessments, a successful attack will delay Iran's nuclear program by two years at most. But an attack will greatly strengthen the messianic wing of Tehran's leadership - headed by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is currently on his way out - and increase Iran's determination to embark on an open race for a nuclear bomb.

Thus, an Israeli assault would merely shorten the time until an Iranian bomb was produced. Moreover, Iran's motivation to use such a bomb would increase, while Western support for the nuclear deterrent that protects Israel would be undermined.

The second possible source of legitimacy is the conviction, among both Israeli citizens and the West, that Israel's leadership has done everything it can to obtain an agreement that would stabilize the Middle East. An agreement would dramatically reduce the motivation for extremism in the region. An agreement, or even a sincere desire for one, would also lead the West to give Israel strategic support. Such support is essential to move to an open nuclear deterrent, obtain a NATO umbrella and curtail the salvos of thousands of missiles that would follow an Israeli assault - salvos that are liable to last for months, perhaps even years, according to individuals such as former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy.

However, the opposite is true: Israel is viewed as more extremist and more isolated than ever before.

Hence, all that remains is an attempt to create the kind of quasi-mystical legitimacy that characterizes undemocratic regimes. The Shalit deal is meant to demonstrate that Netanyahu is a wise, fatherly leader with an aura of greatness. When it's necessary, he will worry about a single soldier, and when it's necessary to endanger tens of thousands of people, he will do so responsibly. This accurately describes the mood of the twosome in the headlines.

Each and every opponent of an attack within the defense establishment must therefore make it clear to the duo that they can't behave like this. It is not possible to endanger an entire nation for years via an underhanded, opportunistic maneuver - not in the dead of night; not by hastily convincing a few elderly rabbis; not in defiance of the entire defense establishment; not in defiance of all the past and present heads of the Israel Defense Forces, the Mossad, the Shin Bet security service, Military Intelligence and the Atomic Energy Commission; not in defiance of the United States; not when Ahmadinejad and his gang of messianists are growing weaker; not when there are signs of American measures in the wake of Iran's attempt to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington and the International Atomic Energy Agency's impending severe report; not when the clouds are about to burst. Just plain no.

There are things that even a duo, the one half of which is brave and talented, can't do on its own. They have no mandate. Not now. Not like this.

3.  Simon Tisdall's world briefing

Previous | Index 

A week or two or so ago i read an email from someone that Israel had a few week window of opportunity to attack Iran. I don't remember where i read it or the details, one factor was weather, but i forget the others. And then there was the "red flag" false rumor about Iran being responsible for the assassination or attempted assassination of the Saudi diplomat (sorry for displaying my terrible memory here) -the point is that i tucked those disturbing stories into the back of my worry pile. And then i read this. If this is true - any way to mobilize against such stupidity to stop it? I've heard of shooting ones self in the foot - but this would be more like shooting ourselves in the stomach or head. Actually - i' would feel it most in my heart.

Or perhaps this is all foolish rumor . . . Or sanity will prevail at the highest levels without intervention. . . . Sorry if i'm passing along something that is not true. Sorrier if it is true ,however. . .

thanks, pat

      Sources: US Gives Israel Green Light For Iran Strike

      Fabricated terror plot provides pretext for intervention following Panetta’s October 3 Tel Aviv visit 

      Paul Joseph Watson
      Prison Planet

      The Obama administration’s fabricated terror plot blamed on Iran represents the green light for an Israeli attack on Iran set to take place within the next two weeks, according to confidential military sources who spoke with Alex Jones. 

      Israel is concerned that major powers like Germany are moving closer to smoothing relations with Iran and allowing Iran to continue its nuclear enrichment program unimpeded. A two month window has been allocated during which Israel has the opportunity to launch a military assault, waiting until winter when the attack will be more difficult to pull off is not an option.

      US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s October 3 Tel Aviv visit was used by Israeli hawks to convince the United States that it should green light the attack. Less than 10 days later, a fanciful terror plot involving a used car salesman was invented to implicate Iran and create the pretext for a military assault.

      http://activistpost.net/survive-chaos.htmlhttp://activistpost.net/survive-chaos.html

      “In recent weeks, intense discussions have taken place in Israeli military and intelligence circles about whether or not to launch a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Apparently, the key question in the debate was how to ensure that the United States took part in the attack or, at the very least, intervened on Israel’s side if the initial strike triggered a wider war,” writes Patrick Seale of Gulf News.

      That intervention has now been mandated by the announcement of the fabricated terror plot, which was actually concocted last month but only made public now.

      While U.S. intelligence officials prepare to release claims about a “chain” of plots that will be blamed on Iran, Time Magazine reports that the Obama administration is preparing to use the accusations to take action beyond mere isolation tactics.

      “If the Administration fails to win support for a significant escalation of sanctions or other forms of punishment for the Tehran regime after presenting evidence of the latest allegations of Iranian malfeasance, the ball will land back in Obama’s court,” writes Tony Karon. “Having made the case that Iran has crossed a red line, he will be under growing pressure to act — or risk entering a highly polarized election season haunted by a “soft on Iran” charge.”

      With neo-cons rushing to support aggressive measures against Iran, Obama will now be given right cover to pursue yet another act of regime change. As we postulated back in February last year, Obama is being blackmailed into supporting an attack on Iran as the only way to save his presidency. We also speculated that an assassination attempt would be used as the pretext to implicate Iran.

      Geopolitical experts have been consistent in their warnings that Israel was preparing to strike Iran this fall.

      Back in July, 21-year CIA veteran Robert Baer told KPFK Los Angeles that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was planning an attack on Iran in September to coincide with the Palestine bid for UN membership.

      Speaking with the Alex Jones Show today, former State Department official Steve Pieczenik, who has numerous inside intelligence sources having worked in several sensitive positions during the course of his career, also indicated that the terror plot was completely fabricated and that it would be used a pretext to justify a military strike against Iran.

      Pieczenik also pointed out that Israel had recently taken delivery of a large amount of bunker buster missiles.

      As we have documented, the alleged assassination plot against Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir, which is now being cited by everyone from John Kerry to John McCain as a justification for a potential military strike, is a complete fantasy.

      Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Anthony Shaffer has revealed that an FBI insider with a high security clearance told him no records whatsoever detailing the plot existed within DOJ channels, clearly indicating the whole episode was manufactured.

      It has also now emerged that the alleged “mastermind” behind the plot was a drunk pothead who liked to frequent with prostitutes and was described by those who know him as a “joke”.

      Paul Joseph Watson is the editor and writer for Prison Planet.com. He is the author of Order Out Of Chaos. Watson is also a regular fill-in host for The Alex Jones Show. 

      ------------------------- 

      http://www.activistpost.com/2011/10/sources-us-gives-israel-green-light-for.html 

      l====================

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