[Peace-discuss] Fw: [socialistdiscussion] Perspectives for Egypt

[David Johnson]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: VN Gelis 
To: socialistdiscussion at yahoogroups.com 
Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2013 4:36 AM
Subject: RE: [socialistdiscussion] Perspectives for Egypt


  

The Brotherhood was the only organised force after 40 years dictatorship for Mubarak, hence it was inevitable they would come to power. But trying to outdo Mubarak in authoritarianism whilst being a minority govt (only 13 million voted for them) whilst 22 million signed a protest through their national security cards against Morsi implies that after he was defeated on the constitutional amendments by popular protests he was a busted flush.

The size of these protests surpassing on accounts I have seen the anti-Mubarak protests implies that the army forced his removal to ensure survival of the state machine,in other words this was a progressive development not a coup d'etat as presented by the mass media and Morsi's followers. Who said the people cant remove elected presidents? The media in Greece has gone overboard to defend Morsi, and we know why. It was the protests against Mubarak that restored the confidence to the people this side of the Meditterean and they demonstrated in squares for two months solid against Papandreous praetorian guards eventually bringing him down. The ruling class of Egypt is weak and the army runs the show but the reasons the people are on the streets are more to do with bread, education and freedom/justice and until those demands are met they will continue to protest until a leadership is found/created to meet those demands.

The Brotherhood was based on socially conservative layers (shopkeepers, preachers etc) whilst the mass of urban unemployed and the factory workers aren't necessarily religious but have secular traditions. The army will eventually split if it doesn't meet some of the demands of the masses and the masses need to get armed to enforce their just demandsiimposing their will on society. These events will instill a new confidence in the battles in Turkey, Bulgaria, Brazil and hopefully Greece...

VN



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To: socialistdiscussion at yahoogroups.com
From: stephenmorgan at skynet.be
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2013 19:54:16 +0200
Subject: Re: [socialistdiscussion] Perspectives for Egypt

  


With regards to Mahalla, I found this on the Egypt Independent paper http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/mahalla-edge-anti-morsy-protests But it's a week old.
Key points 
"In Mahalla, where protesters defied Mubarak repeatedly in the years leading to the 2011 uprising, workers and activists appear confident that these are Morsy's last days in office.
"We will go out every day until we remove him," said Jihan Melawi, 29, one of several hundred workers who streamed out of the city's biggest textile factory on Tuesday to march against Morsy. "Out! Out! Out!" they chanted.
Anger has spilled into violence. The entrance to the Muslim Brotherhood's local party office was firebombed this week.
The grievances go beyond the economy. Morsy's decision to appoint a member of his group as the provincial governor set off clashes in which a dozen people were injured. The complaint was that this was part of a Brotherhood grab for permanent power.
"We had hope, but now I regret voting for them because of the promises that were not met," said Ahmed Helmi, 38, a worker at a Mahalla textile factory. "We will go out on June 30 to find a solution for this farce. The first priorities are income and security: we can't go out without fear of getting mugged."
HOWEVER The contradictions in the situation are clear in Mahalla also, Further in the report,
"Mahalla, which lies in the Nile Delta north of Cairo, had long been a stronghold of Brotherhood support. Morsy launched his presidential election campaign from the city's sports stadium last year. But afterwards more local residents voted for Mubarak's last prime minister, Ahmed Shafik, than for Morsy, pointing to the group's faltering political fortunes."
 

best regards,
Stephen Morgan,
email: stephenmorgan at skynet.be
tel: 32 0484 026 300
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: John Reimann 
  To: socialist discussion 
  Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2013 3:46 PM
  Subject: Re: [socialistdiscussion] Perspectives for Egypt


    


  I think the situation is an absolutely classical case of bonepartism. They cannot rule by bourgeois democratic means. My strongest suspicion is that there are illusions in a "strong man", or in this case possibly in "strong (military) men". These illusions will be shattered, as Dan implies. What we don't know, and I'd like to find out, is what is happening in the new unions and also in Mahalla - the powerful industrial workers' center, where they declared their "independence" some time back. 


  John



  On Wed, Jul 3, 2013 at 6:17 AM, Dan <dan.armstronguk at yahoo.co.uk> wrote:

      
    On this day of reckoning when the ultimatum from the army chiefs runs out, there was a report that the support for Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood has slumped from over a claimed 50 per cent to just 24 per cent. Unemployment, rising prices for necessities and petrol, repressive measures against liberal culture, attacks on music clubs all combine to alienate disillusioned former fans of Mursi and inflame and unite the existing opposition forces which are now at their highest point, exceeding even the events of the overthrow of Mubarak.

    The military will be well aware of the declining support for the islamists; if Mursi remains hardline, it may be expected that a series of simple military actions will be carried through, a curfew, ban on assembly and movement, ban on strikes, military occupation of transport systems and the media followed by arrests of the local and national leaderships of the Brotherhood. At the same time, these measures are intended to put a lid on the anti-islamists freedom of action.

    As the saying goes, Be careful what you wish for, you may get it...

    Dan








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