[Peace-discuss] Calculate odds of 2 Malaysian Air Boeing 777s crashing within 4 months ... Israel???

Sun Jul 27 06:28:26 EDT 2014

I'm looking forward to all the tinfoil comments I'll receive from this, but the math doesn't lie.

In the U.S. the odds are 1 in 270,417  (9,748,551 commercial flights/36.5 US commercial crashes) of being killed in a commercial plane crash.  avg. # commercial flights @yr / avg # crashes @ yr. = odds of a specific flight crashing
also see: http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm

and globally it's very safe to fly:  In 1998, the world’s commercial jet airlines carried approximately 1.3 billion people on 18 million flights while suffering 10 fatal accidents.  (18,000,000/10).... one in 180,000,000

So....
To calculate odds of one of us being killed in a Boeing 777 plane and belonging to Malaysian Airlines would be 180,000,000 x # different commercial aircraft x # of commercial airline companies.  Let's say 200 kinds of planes to just make a wild guess and 200 commercial airline companies  So now the odds of crashing in a 777s are 180,000,000 x 200 x 200....it's in the one in trillions range (7.2 E+12).... a calculator can't display it without scientific notation.

Or the odds of two Boeing 777s belonging to Malaysian Airlines crashing would be one in 18 million x 200 x 200 = (1:7.2 E+11)....astronomically unlikely....not even considering the crashes happening within 4 months of each other....???
I'm dangerous at mathematics and these numbers could be substantially wrong , but are not unreasonable.... and this is getting way over my head....but has something to do with:
 (n2)p2(1−p)n−2  or 1−p0(1−p)n−0−np1(1−p)n−1 

In other words the plane crashes are related somehow beyond the possibility of pure chance!
Jim Fetzer is on to something?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_Airlines_MH370

and there is an interesting buzz (Daily Paul) about an identical plane being stored in Israel.....Just sayin'

Why is a Malaysian Airliner Identical to the Missing One Being Stored in Tel Aviv? | Peace . Gold . LOVE

Why is a Malaysian Airliner Identical to the Missing One...
What are the odds? Why would Israel have a plane identical to the missing Malaysia Airlines plane in storage in Tel Aviv?   
View on www.dailypaul.com Preview by Yahoo  

On Saturday, July 26, 2014 8:21 PM, ewjohnson via Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net> wrote:

wikipaedia saith regarding Godfrey's demise:

On 21 December, Miles Prance, Catholic servant-in-ordinary to
    England's Catholic Queen consort, Catherine of Braganza, was
    arrested and taken to Newgate prison. His lodger (who was in debt to
    Prance), John Wren, testified that he had been away for the four
    nights before Godfrey's body was discovered. Bedloe claimed to
    recognize him. Both statements are now thought to be lies, but this
    did not help Prance.

On 23 – 24 December, Prance announced that he had had a part in the
    murder but that the main instigators were three Catholic priests:
    Thomas Godden, head of the secular English clergy, and two Irish
    priests, Kelly and Fitzgerald. These priests witnessed the murder in
    the courtyard of Somerset House where Godfrey had been lured.
    Godfrey had been strangled and his body taken to Hampstead. Prance
    named as the actual killers three working men, Robert Green, Henry
    Berry and Lawrence Hill, who were arrested. Godden fled the country,
    while the two Irish priests simply vanished. As with most solutions
    to the murder, the main weakness was the absence of a plausible
    motive. Prance could only say, vaguely, that Godfrey had been
    harassing the priests in some way, which seems unlikely as he was
    noted for tolerance in religious matters.

Prance later recanted his confession before the king and the council
    and was thrown back to prison: he was threatened with torture, and
    nearly froze to death.   As a result he recanted his recantation and
    recanted two more times, ending up verifying his original story. At
    the trial he was a highly credible witness, although Hill's wife
    rightly prophesied "we shall see him recant after, when it is too
    late". [10]The three men were sentenced to death 5 February 1679 and
    hanged at Primrose Hill.For a time this was known as "Greenberry Hill", because of the hangings of Green, Berry and Hill.

Prance's story was later discredited and he pleaded guilty to
    perjury. Because the three men were executed on false evidence, and
    historians accept their complete innocence, the murder remains
    officially unsolved.

....

There have been many theories of what really happened to Godfrey and
    who killed him. He might have been murdered either by Catholics, who
    could have been afraid that he knew some of theirreal secrets; supporters of Oates because of his contacts to Catholics or because he knew Oates was lying; or just by random hooligans. Some claim suicide, either because Godfrey was in a quandary between Catholics and Anglicans and, due to his contacts to Coleman, possibly under suspicion or just because of his melancholy nature.

[There is no mention whatsoever ofJewry, so I find the whole
matter to be highly suspicious. - ewj]

On 07/27/2014 10:56 AM, ewjohnson via Peace-discuss wrote:

I think this should help clear things up:

"In the New York Herald, Nov. 26, 1911, there is an account of the hanging of three men, for the murder of Sir Edmund Berry Godfrey, on Greenberry Hill, London.  The names of the murderers were Green, Berry, and Hill."  - Charles Hoy Fort, "Wild Talents", 1932.

In correspondence to H. Allen Smith in 1932, H. L. Mencken
      denounced Charles Fort as a quack.  (quoted in H. A. Smith, "Low Man on a Totem Pole", 1941).

Accounts of Fort and the Fortean Society generally quote HL
      Mencken as a follower of Fort, a thing which Mencken vehemently
      denies in his correspondence to Smith (see above), who had
      included Mencken's name among other Forteans in an 1932 obituary
      of CH Fort.

PS:  C.H. Fort did not invent FORTRAN.

On 07/27/2014 06:59 AM, David Gehrig via Peace-discuss wrote:

On Jul 26, 2014, at 5:45 PM, Stephen Francis via Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net> wrote:

David,
>I can't help just being a product of my research....

When you're "researching" in a sewer, it's no surprise that everything you fish out is a pile of crap. 

For the heck of it, I wandered over to "Veterans Today," the toilet you mistake for a feeding trough. Foilhatted Fetzer has figured out who knocked down MH17: Israel, of course! "In case anyone misses the point, the plane that went down in Ukraine appears to be the same plane that disappeared in Southeast Asia, Malaysian 370. The passengers appear to have been killed, perhaps en route to Diego Garcia, and the plane taken to Ukraine as part of an Israeli plan to distract attention from its slaughter in Gaza."

Lunatic. Just a freakin' ravin' lunatic. But you'll follow him anywhere, even into Holocaust denial. Why? Because "Veterans Today" has eaten your brain. 

Every piece of history can be connected to it precisely because 

Precisely because you're insane. 

@%<

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