[Peace-discuss] Fw: Informed Comment

Sat Jun 7 22:38:45 EDT 2014

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Informed Comment 

Informed Comment   
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	* Syria:  Regime Resilience, Rise of al-Qaeda & the Need for Diplomacy 
	* How Reagan subverted the meaning of D-Day & the New Deal of the Greatest Generation 
	* Harvard confirms antique book is bound in human skin 
	* “In your Wild Dreams, what are you Looking for?” Rubaiyat of Jalalu’d-Din Rumi 
	* Georgia Courthouse is shot up by Sovereign Citizen after GOP backs Bundy, Open Carry 
Syria:  Regime Resilience, Rise of al-Qaeda & the Need for Diplomacy 
Posted: 06 Jun 2014 10:36 PM PDT
By Paul Rogers
The Damascus regime is winning its war for survival; Syria’s conflict will continue and even escalate. In the morass, diplomacy remains vital to any progress.  
Bashar al-Assad reportedly won 88.7% of those voting in Syria’s presidential election on 3 June 2014. In itself the scale of his victory (nominally over two rival candidates) will mean little more than a reminder that his regime is not without support, even after three years of war and 160,000 people dead.
More than the election, two other recent events give a better indication of Assad’s prospects. The first relates to the arrest in Marseilles of a 29-year old Frenchman on suspicion of the killing of three visitors to the Jewish museum in Brussels on 31 May. The suspect is reported to have spent time in Syria in 2013. If this is confirmed, it will intensify fears in France that the threat posed by paramilitary fighters returning to Europe from Syria’s war is acute (see Alissa J Rubin, “Fearing Converts to Terrorism, France Intercepts Citizens Bound for Syria“, New York Times, 2 June 2014)
France’s attitude to this matter has become tougher, as reflected in the arrest of three French citizens on their way to Syria in 2013. The same NYT report says: “They had not harmed anyone in France or made plans to do so, according to the evidence at their trial in January [2014], but in France these days, seeking to fight in Syria is enough to bring a charge of plotting terrorism – and in this case sentences of three to five years in prison.”
France has also been, of all European states, the most vociferous in condemning the Assad regime. But it is now very concerned that many young French Muslims are going to fight that same regime – moreover, joining the “bad rebels” rather than the “good rebels”, and thus becoming suspects in the continuing “war on terror”. Paris’s fears are shared by many other western governments, and this helps explain the changing attitudes to the war: the Islamist danger is now believed to be so great that criticism of Damascus is increasingly muted.
The second event is a reported agreement that will allow Russia to supply Syria’s air force with a number of Yak-130 jet trainers that can be readily used as ground-attack aircraft. The deal, for thirty-six aircraft, has been in an on-off state for nearly a year, but it now seems that the first nine will be delivered before the end of 2014.  
This follows news that a delayed order for twelve other fighter planes – the much more powerful MiG-29M/M2 multirole craft – is also going ahead. Four have already been constructed, and it is now reported that current negotiations could lead to initial deliveries by the end of 2014 (though the schedule set a date of 2016-17) (see Jeremy Binnie, “Russia firms up Syrian MiG-29 delivery schedule, numbers”, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 4 June 2014)
A hard reality
The combination of these two developments gives a good insight as to why the Assad regime feels secure. A leading trend in the war is that te rebels have come to be dominated more and more by radical Islamist groups such as ISIL and the Al-Nusrah Front, leaving them and other al-Qaida-linked forces to cement their control of territory in both Syria and Iraq. 
In consequence, western states now prioritise the threat of a revival of the al-Qaida idea in the heart of the middle east (see “Assad will win Syria’s farcical election…”, The Conversation, 3 June 2014); and thus sideline their declared foreign policy of entrenched opposition to Assad in favour of an undeclared policy of preferring to avoid his downfall. That choice may be uncomfortable and even embarrassing, but it is the hard reality.
On current trends the Assad regime will slowly consolidate its hold on the urban areas; then extend that control to much of the rest of the country (a process that may take over two or three years). Even this, however, would leave substantial areas in north and northeast Syria dominated by radical Islamist paramilitaries. Some of the latter would be prepared to use their newfound domains to plan attacks against both the territory and interests of their international enemies, including Britain, France and possibly the United States. 
In these circumstances, what can be done to prevent conflict in Syria escalating – leading to 250,000 dead and many more millions displaced -before it collapses into an exhausting and exhausted stalemate?
A possible way out
The answer begins by acknowledging that the role of western states such as Britain is likely to be peripheral. There is, bluntly, little that they can do beyond providing support to the United Nations and regional governments as the latter try to respond to an appalling humanitarian disaster. 
There are two possible ways forward, however. The first relates to the Arab Gulf states and Iran. Will influential forces there, government or private, continue to back their espective proxies: the Islamist rebels in Syria and the Damascus regime? If either of these lines of support were to diminish, especially at the same time, this might contribute to an early settlement. That prospect would be reinforced by an improved Moscow-Washington relationship, which in turn depends in part on the course of the Ukraine crisis.   
Insofar as western states have any influence in Riyadh and Tehran, they would be well advised to use it to foster movement in relations between these strategic rivals. This would be a rare, hopeful sign that – after decades of suspicion – the two regimes are capable of some agreement.
The second way ahead may not immediately appear related to the Syrian conflict, though it is. This is the United States-Iran negotiating process on the latter’s nuclear ambitions and intentions. If there is genuine progress in period until September 2014, that will create a greater prospect of an Iran-Saudi rapprochement. This is by no means certain: powerful, hawkish elements in both capitals are determined to sabotage any possibility of a deal. Again, though this may seem unconnected, thwarting these elements will be vital in improving the chances of ending Syria’s war.
Even if some easing in the war can begin, and then be made to last, the costs of the war will be unavoidably immense. Any post-conflict reconciliation and reconstruction will involve several decades’ work, requiring huge help from multiple sources. 
This scale of this task and the failures it represents should make the more thoughtful politicians and diplomats reconsider the proposal of a much strengthened United Nations capability for early intervention. This idea has long been opposed, but after the bitter and costly experience of 2011-14 in Syria it should at least be on the agenda.
Paul Rogers is professor in the department of peace studies at Bradford University, northern England. He is openDemocracy’s international-security editor, and has been writing a weekly column on global security since 28 September 2001; he also writes a monthly briefing for the Oxford Research Group. His books include Why We’re Losing the War on Terror (Polity, 2007), and Losing Control: Global Security in the 21st Century (Pluto Press, 3rd edition, 2010). He is on twitter at: @ProfPRogers
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 licence.
Mirrored from Open Democracy  
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Related Video:
Syria’s Bashar al-Assad wins controversial presidential election  
How Reagan subverted the meaning of D-Day & the New Deal of the Greatest Generation 
Posted: 06 Jun 2014 09:33 PM PDT
Ronald Reagan, D-Day Anniversaries and the Suppression of Memory (via Moyers & Company) 
The following is an excerpt from Harvey J. Kaye’s The Fight for the Four Freedoms: What Made FDR and the Greatest Generation Truly Great (Simon & Schuster, 2014). On June 6, 1984, President Ronald Reagan went to Normandy, France, to speak at events… 

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Related Video:
Thom Hartmann: “D-Day and the Four Freedoms”  
Harvard confirms antique book is bound in human skin 
Posted: 06 Jun 2014 09:27 PM PDT
Harvard confirms antique book is bound in human skin (via AFP) 
Harvard University scientists have confirmed that a 19th century French treatise in its libraries is bound in human skin, Harvard University said this week, after a bevvy of scientific testing. Arsene Houssaye’s “Des destinees de l’ame” (On the destiny… 

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related video
RT America: “Book bound in human skin found at Harvard library”  
“In your Wild Dreams, what are you Looking for?” Rubaiyat of Jalalu’d-Din Rumi 
Posted: 06 Jun 2014 09:09 PM PDT
Courtesy Anthony A. Lee, here are four poems from his and the late Amin Banani’s translation of the quatrains of the great Sufi mystic Mevlana Jalalu’d-Din Rumi: 
Jalalu’d-Din Rumi, 53 Secrets from the Tavern of Love: Poems from the Rubaiyat of Mevlana Rumi, Translated by Amin Banani and Anthony Lee  (White Cloud Press, 2014)
Truth 
In your wild dreams, what are you looking for? 
In tears and blood, what are you looking for? 
You—from head to foot—you are the Truth. You
can’t find yourself!  What are you looking for? 
Love 
The candle inside your heart:  Let it burn! 
That gap keeps you from the Friend:  Let it turn!
Hey! Don’t you know about pain and burning? 
Love comes like that.  It’s not something you learn. 
Rose Garden
Find the water of life, drink, and be healed.
Find the Friend in the rose garden—no thorns.
They say there’s a window from heart to heart.
But, why a window?—there are no walls here. 
Don’t Think 
Go throw your clothes in the street.  Be clean!
Cover your shame with Joseph’s shirt, and dream!
A little fish can’t live without water. 
Don’t think!  Throw yourself naked in this stream. 
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Available at Amazon.com  
Georgia Courthouse is shot up by Sovereign Citizen after GOP backs Bundy, Open Carry 
Posted: 06 Jun 2014 09:07 PM PDT
That didn’t take long.  The Georgia GOP rushed into law an ‘open carry’ provision in April allowing people to tote around guns in bars and churches (apparently these are felt to be complementary institutions in Georgia) and schools (these are apparently felt to be full of expendable if short people in Georgia).
Then the national GOP and Fox Cable News (the “Josef Goebbels Commemorative Propaganda Division of the American Right Wing”) backed Cliven Bundy in his “sovereign citizen” claims that he doesn’t have to pay Federal grazing fees.
So on Saturday a sovereign citizen and former Transportation Department employee (who made his money from the Federal government he hates) showed up outside a Georgia courthouse armed to the teeth with automatic weapons and other munitions and with the clear intent of taking hostages inside the courthouse.  He was open carrying, you see, and standing up against big government.  Or rather standing overtop it with a gun to its head.
This was a clear act of terrorism, but since it was committed by a white person, no one brought the word up.
A brave policeman confronted the sovereign shooter, trading volleys of gunfire with him.  The brave deputy was shot twice in the leg but will survive.  He slowed down the shooter long enough to allow SWAT to get to the scene.  Dennis Marx, the shooter, was killed in the exchange of gunfire that ensued.
It is tragic that a law enforcement officer was wounded, and that others had their lives put in danger, all because the NRA insists that all Americans, including the unstable ones, have semi-automatic weapons and all because the Republican Party now supports racist criminal tax deadbeats as a knee-jerk reaction.
But, if you encourage crazy people and hand out guns like candy, the courthouse incident is what you get back.
Another lesson about the NRA hatred for gun regulation (a hatred stoked by contributions from the gun manufacturers) and GOP attempts to recruit white racists of a terrorist bent can be learned from Seattle last week.  There, a crazed person with an obsession with Columbine and school shootings killed one student and wounded others. 
The shooter at a Seattle Christian college was using a shotgun.  They need to be broken and reloaded, unlike semi-automatic weapons.  While he was reloading a brave student tackled him and others piled on.  If Aaron Ybarra, the shooter, had been using a semi-automatic, the student who tackled him would be dead, along with likely large numbers of others slated to be killed.’
You get what you lobby for, GOP.
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Related video:
AP: Mass Shooting Plot Averted at Georgia Courthouse  
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