[Peace-discuss] Champaign-Urbana #RunWarrenRun report

[Robert Naiman]

I'm not ignoring it. I'm dealing with the reality that we're facing right
now. "Be as radical as reality itself."

1) In terms of the Democratic nomination for President, the status quo, if
we do nothing, is "uncontested Hillary." The main threat to "uncontested
Hillary" right now is "Draft Warren." That is the main reason that I
support "Draft Warren" right now, to oppose "uncontested Hillary." "Draft
Warren" is supported by MoveOn, Democracy for America, and the Working
Families Party, a list that is likely to grow. That makes it a going
proposition. Poll data, especially in Iowa and New Hampshire, suggests that
it is a going proposition.

2) In terms of the relationship of the U.S. to Israel, the main fight going
on right now is over AIPAC's push for new Congressional sanctions on Iran,
acting at the open behest of the Netanyahu government in Israel, with the
explicit goal of blowing up the diplomatic talks with Iran and preventing a
possibly emerging deal on Iran's nuclear program, which deal not only would
only remove this purported casus belli from the table, but facilitate
greater cooperation between the U.S. and Iran in ending violent conflicts
in the region, to the great benefit of civilians in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and
Lebanon. Warren's track record is significantly better than Hillary on
this. Warren was an early, vocal, effective defender of the interim nuclear
deal a year ago. Hillary endorsed it at the last minute, just before AIPAC
threw in the towel on its sanctions push at the time.

3) the main public fight around this right now is the fight over the
proposed #BibiBluster to Congress on March 3rd. We are doing, as are
others, everything we can to get Democrats - including Warren - to pledge
to boycott this proposed speech (oh, I forgot. We're not calling it a
"boycott," we're calling it "skipping the speech.")

4) Both Warren and Sanders have been somewhat better on Israel-Palestine
since the Gaza war. Both of them refused to sign a recent Senate letter -
signed by about 75 Senators - saying that the Palestinians should be
punished for joining the ICC. This is just one more piece of evidence that
a contested primary is a Very Good Thing. It exposes these people to
needing to care more about what the Democratic masses think. At the
beginning of the Democratic primaries in 2008, Clinton, Edwards, *and
Obama* were all spouting the AIPAC line on Iran. But the Democratic masses
used the Democratic primaries to create counter-pressure. Hillary was
confronted at a town hall in New Hampshire by a woman from New Hampshire
Peace Action who demanded to know, why are you helping the people who want
to bomb Iran? Kucinich and Gravel were on stage in the early debates, and
they said: this is nuts. Then Obama moved. Obama saw the pressure and he
moved. He saw an opportunity to distinguish myself from Clinton and Edwards
and appeal to the Democratic masses and he took it. And that transformed
the debate. And this dynamic is starting to happen with Sanders right now.
Just in the last few days he distinguished himself by being the first
Senator to announce that he was not going to participate in the
#BibiBluster. Just in the last few days he distinguished himself by being
the first Senator to say that he will oppose any ISIS AUMF that doesn't
have a strict prohibition against the use of ground troops.

So: that's what I want out of Draft Warren right now. I would be delighted
if she runs and I would be delighted if she wins. But the most important
thing about Draft Warren right now, in my mind, is to be a wedge against
Uncontested Hillary.





Robert Naiman
Policy Director
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
(202) 448-2898 x1

On Fri, Feb 13, 2015 at 8:25 PM, Carl G. Estabrook <galliher at illinois.edu>
wrote:

> Given all your work on Israel, I'm amazed that you're ignoring this aspect
> of Warren's politics:
>
> http://mondoweiss.net/2015/02/warren-supporters-palestine
>
>
> On Feb 13, 2015, at 7:44 PM, Robert Naiman via Peace-discuss <
> peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net> wrote:
>
>
> It's 28 degrees Fahrenheit in Champaign-Urbana right now. 'Nuff said.
>
> Five of us showed up at the Champaign County Veterans Memorial in downtown
> Urbana. You can see a picture here:
>
> https://twitter.com/naiman/status/566404253430726656
>
> We're not staying for an hour, they said. It's too cold. No problem, I
> said. We stay for as long as you want. Whenever you want to go, that's when
> we leave.
>
> I let the others stand and hold signs while I leafletted. I figured I got
> the better deal, because when you leaflet, you're moving around.
>
> There was a nearby bus stop: captive audience. First five people:
> Elizabeth Warren, I say. Blank stare. Presidential election, I say. Blank
> stare. I'm thinking, you do know we have presidential elections every four
> years, right? It's not optional. It happens every time.
>
> Sixth person: "Oh yeah," she says, and smiles. "I totally support
> Elizabeth Warren, 100%. You can keep your flyer."
>
> Alright, I thought. One in six. That's not a bad start.
>
> ===
> Robert Naiman
> Policy Director
> Just Foreign Policy
> www.justforeignpolicy.org
> naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
> (202) 448-2898 x1
>
>
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>
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