[Peace-discuss] Fwd: [ufpj-activist] US Army report calls for ‘military support’ of Israeli energy grab
Stuart Levy via Peace-discuss
peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
Mon Jan 5 07:40:59 EST 2015
A new report by the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute
emphasises the need for “US security and military support” to its key
allies in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Israel, over access to
recent vast discoveries of regional oil and gas, writes Nafeez Ahmed in
Middle East Eye.
Some quotes, with the full story below:
"[I]n 2013 Israel granted oil exploration licenses in the Syrian-claimed
Golan Heights, spelling “potential for another armed conflict between
the two parties should substantial hydrocarbon resources be discovered.”
According to a report to the UN Security Council in early December,
Israel has been in regular contact with Syrian rebels, includingIslamic
State fighters
<http://www.ibtimes.co.in/un-report-israel-regular-contact-syrian-rebels-including-isis-616404>,
raising the question of Israel’s role in supporting anti-Assad
extremists to cement its control of Golan’s potential fossil fuel
resources."
and
"[T]he report highlights the possibility of Israel piping gas to Turkey,
where it can be exported to European markets, making Turkey a regional
gas transhipment hub. This would allow both Turkey and Europe to wean
off their Russian gas dependence, and integrate instead into a
“peaceful” US-Israeli dominated regional energy architecture."
and of course
“US security and military support for its main allies in the case of an
eruption of natural resource conflict in the East Mediterranean may
prove essential in managing possible future conflict.”
and the author, Nafeez Ahmed, summarizes -
"This Orwellian document thus reveals that in the name of maintaining
regional peace, a new Great Game is at play. To counter Russian and
Chinese influence while cementing influence over its Arab allies, US
military strategists are contemplating the threat of war to redraw the
Middle East’s energy architecture around Israel."
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [ufpj-activist] US Army report calls for ‘military support’ of
Israeli energy grab
Date: Mon, 5 Jan 2015 05:08:33 +0000
From: Michael Eisenscher <m_eisenscher at uslaboragainstwar.org>
Reply-To: Michael Eisenscher <m_eisenscher at uslaboragainstwar.org>
To: ufpj-activist <ufpj-activist at lists.mayfirst.org>
US Army report calls for â??military supportâ?? of Israeli energy grab
#Energy <http://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/energy>
Nafeez Ahmed's picture <http://www.middleeasteye.net/users/nafeez-ahmed>
Nafeez Ahmed <http://www.middleeasteye.net/users/nafeez-ahmed>
Thursday 1 January 2015 17:02 GMT
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/us-army-report-calls-military-support-israeli-energy-grab-57185571
US military strategists are contemplating the threat of war to redraw
the Middle Eastâ??s energy architecture around Israel
A new report by the US Army War Collegeâ??s Strategic Studies Institute
emphasises the need for â??US security and military supportâ? to its
key allies in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Israel, over
access to recent vast discoveries of regional oil and gas.
TheArmy study
<https://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1243.pdf>,
released earlier in December 2014, concludes that extensive US military
involvement â??may prove essential in managing possible future
conflictâ? in case of â??an eruption of natural resource conflict in
the East Mediterranean,â? due to huge gas discoveries in recent years.
Visible US engagement is also necessary to ward off the regional
encroachment of â??emerging powers and potential new peace brokers such
as Russia - which already entertains a strong interest in East
Mediterranean gas developments - and notably China.â?
Fossil fuel bonanza in the Levant
Since 2000, the Levant basin - an area encompassing the offshore
territories of Israel, Palestine, Cyprus, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, and
Lebanon - has been estimated to hold as much as 1.7 bn barrels of oil
and up to 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. As much of the
regionâ??s potential resources remain undiscovered, geologists believe
this could be just a third of the total quantities of fossil fuels in
the Levant.
The new US Army report argues that these hydrocarbon discoveries are of
â??tremendous economic and geostrategic significance,â? not just for
its allies, but for the United States itself. Israel especially stands
to â??gain considerably from their newly discovered gas wealthâ? in
terms of cost-effective energy for domestic consumption and revenues
from gas exports.
But while the discoveries offer the prospect for closer regional
cooperation, they also raise â??the potential for conflict over these
valuable resources.â? The potential for resource conflicts over oil and
gas relates directly to intractable border conflicts between Israel, the
Palestinians, Lebanon and Syria, as well as the unresolved Cypriot
question between Greece and Turkey. US interests are to minimise the
risk of conflict between its core allies, while maximising their
capacity to exploit these resources.
â??Israel, Cyprus, and Turkey are key strategic US allies,â? the report
says. â??Neighbouring Egypt, Syria and Lebanon play important roles from
the European and US perspective, both as direct neighbours to Israel and
the Palestinian Territories as well as because of their strategically
important location as the geographic interconnection between Europe,
North Africa, and the Middle East.â?
The new US Army report is authored by Mohammed al-Katiri and Laura
al-Katiri. Mohammed al-Katiri was previously research director at the UK
Ministry of Defenceâ??s (MoD) Advanced Research and Assessment Group
(ARAG), but now heads up two private intelligence consultancies,MENA
Insight <http://www.menainsights.com/team1>and theConflict Studies
Research Centre <http://www.conflictstudies.org.uk/key-personnel.php>
(CSRC), both of which provide services to government and commercial
sectors, including the oil and gas industry.
The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) which published the report, calls
itself an Army â??think factoryâ? for â??commanders and civilian
leaders.â? SSI uses independent analysis to help â??develop policy
recommendationsâ? for the US Army on national security and to
â??influence policy debateâ? across the military.
Advancing Israelâ??s energy empire
The SSI report on the risk of Middle East resource conflicts notes that
Israelâ??s massive offshore gas discoveries â??have yet to translate
into proven gas reserves,â? but that itâ??s total of 9.48 tcf of proven
and 30 tcf estimated reserves, positions Israel â??ahead of all East
Mediterranean countries in terms of gas reserves and resource
prospectivity.â?
The Army report also reveals that Syria could hold significant offshore
oil and gas potential. In 2007, before the outbreak of hostilities,
President Bashar al-Assad launched a first bidding round to secure
investment into new exploration efforts, and another in 2012 that was
cancelled due to deteriorating security conditions.
â??Once the Syria conflict is resolved, prospects for Syrian offshore
production - provided commercial resources are found - are high,â?
observes the report. Potential oil and gas resources can be developed
â??relatively smoothly once the political situation allows for any new
exploration efforts in its offshore territories.â?
The report also mentions significant gas finds in the offshore
territories of Lebanon and Palestine, including the Gaza Marine, which
holds over 1 tcf â?? production of which has been â??obstruction by
Israel over concerns regarding the flow of revenues to Palestinian
stakeholders.â? But in addition to the Gaza Marine, â??Palestinian
offshore territories near Gaza are believed to hold substantial
hydrocarbon potential,â? whose total quantities are still unknown
because a lack of exploration there:
â??Both Israel and Cyprus are key US allies and pillars of US foreign
policy in the region: Israel, with its long history of close political
ties with the United States, historically has stood at the heart of
American efforts to secure regional peace; while Cyprus forms the most
eastern part of Europe and is an important strategic location for both
US and British military interests.â?
*Regional war*
The region faces four main potential arcs of conflict. Firstly, in
Israel-Palestine, the US Army study warns that â??the presence of
valuable natural resources in disputed territory may further feed the
conflict.â?
Secondly, rival claims between Israel and Lebanon over maritime
boundaries could â??complicateâ? the development of regional offshore
hydrocarbon resources and result in military confrontation.
Thirdly, that risk has, in turn, delayed efforts to define
Cypriot-Israeli and Cypriot-Lebanese exclusive economic maritime zones.
Fourthly, in 2013 Israel granted oil exploration licenses in the
Syrian-claimed Golan Heights, spelling â??potential for another armed
conflict between the two parties should substantial hydrocarbon
resources be discovered.â? According to a report to the UN Security
Council in early December, Israel has been in regular contact with
Syrian rebels, includingIslamic State fighters
<http://www.ibtimes.co.in/un-report-israel-regular-contact-syrian-rebels-including-isis-616404>,
raising the question of Israelâ??s role in supporting anti-Assad
extremists to cement its control of Golanâ??s potential fossil fuel
resources.
The US Army study highlights a real risk that tensions across these
flashpoints could escalate into a wider regional conflict:
â??In the case of an armed conflict between Israel and Lebanon, the
security of the wider Levant region could once again be at stake, with a
possible escalation of the conflict into neighbouring Syria and the
Palestinian Territories, as well as (with historical precedents) Jordan
and Egypt. In combination, the pre-existing political problems in all of
these countries â?? Syria destabilizing into de facto civil war, Egypt
in the midst of political instability, the Palestinians and Lebanese
lacking stable political cores â?? the potential for a new, escalating
regional war is a threatening scenario indeed.â?
War for peace (for gas)
To stave off this disturbing prospect, the US report recommends that
Israel and other Levant gas hubs like Lebanon and Cyprus play a key role
in exporting Eastern Mediterranean gas to their Arab neighbours, such as
Egypt, Turkey and Jordan, given that Middle East demand for gas is
projected to rise dramatically in coming decades.
Further, the report highlights the possibility of Israel piping gas to
Turkey, where it can be exported to European markets, making Turkey a
regional gas transhipment hub. This would allow both Turkey and Europe
to wean off their Russian gas dependence, and integrate instead into a
â??peacefulâ? US-Israeli dominated regional energy architecture.
As has been confirmed by Quartet Middle East envoy Tony Blairâ??s energy
advisor, Ariel Ezrahi, Gazaâ??s offshore gas resources are seen as
apotential bridge
<http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/israel-s-looming-gas-empire-requires-final-solution-gaza-1582434143>to
overcome popular Arab public opposition to gas deals with Israel.
â??Israeli as well as Palestinian offshore hydrocarbon resources could
play a significant role in facilitating mutual trust and the
willingness to cooperate,â? the US Army study suggests, â??including
between Israel and a few of its other Arab neighbours, Jordan and Egypt.â?
But ultimately this architecture cannot be installed without extensive
US intervention of some kind. â??US diplomatic and military support has
a pivotal role to play in the East Mediterraneanâ??s complex
geopolitical landscape, and its importance will only grow as the value
of the natural resources at stake increases,â? concludes the Army report:
â??US security and military support for its main allies in the case of
an eruption of natural resource conflict in the East Mediterranean may
prove essential in managing possible future conflict.â?
Diplomatically, the US could play a significant role in mediating
between the various parties to facilitate successful oil and gas
development projects across the East Mediterranean, not just for
â??Israelâ??s sake,â? but also to shore-up allies like Jordan and Egypt
with â??low-cost Israeli gas,â? contributing to regional economic and
thus political stability:
â??US support - diplomatic and, where necessary, military - can form a
potentially powerful element in the safeguarding of these long-term
economic benefits, at little cost in relative terms.â?
If regional tensions escalate though, the report warns that â??the
United States also holds an important military position that could have
an impact in securing the East Mediterranean,â? including â??military
training and equipment supportâ? to defend Cyprus and Israel from
attacks on â??their energy infrastructure and gas developments.â?
This Orwellian document thus reveals that in the name of maintaining
regional peace, a new Great Game is at play. To counter Russian and
Chinese influence while cementing influence over its Arab allies, US
military strategists are contemplating the threat of war to redraw the
Middle Eastâ??s energy architecture around Israel.
*/ - Nafeez Ahmed/ */PhD, is an investigative journalist
<http://www.nafeezahmed.com/>, international security scholar and
bestselling author who tracks what he calls the 'crisis of civilization
<http://www.crisisofcivilization.com/>.' He is a winner of the Project
Censored Award for Outstanding Investigative Journalism for his Guardian
reporting on the intersection of global ecological, energy and economic
crises with regional geopolitics and conflicts. He has also written for
The Independent, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Scotsman, Foreign
Policy, The Atlantic, Quartz, Prospect, New Statesman, Le Monde
diplomatique, New Internationalist. His work on the root causes and
covert operations linked to international terrorism officially
contributed to the 9/11 Commission and the 7/7 Coronerâ??s Inquest./
/The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not
necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye./
/Photo://An Egyptian man looks at flames rising from a pipeline that
delivers gas to Israel and Jordan after it was hit by an explosion some
40 kilometres (25 miles) west of the town of Al-Arish in the north of
the Sinai peninsula, early on 10 November, 2011 (AFP)/
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