[Peace-discuss] The Coming Trade Blow-up??

[C G Estabrook]

We're imprecise in telling exactly when the sun set, but we know when it’s dark.

This is another version of the ‘Thucydides trap’ - imprecise but suggestive historical parallels.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_T._Allison#Thucydides_Trap <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_T._Allison#Thucydides_Trap>

—CGE 

> On Jul 19, 2018, at 4:32 PM, Brussel, Morton K via Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net> wrote:
> 
> All terribly imprecise, hence ambiguous and not worth serious consideration. 
> 
>> On Jul 19, 2018, at 12:48 AM, David Green via Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net <mailto:peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net>> wrote:
>> 
>> "When a poor country is very poor, with a per capita income less than 25% the rich country level, it stands in a “zone of mutual gain” vis-a-vis the rich country: both countries benefit from the poor country’s progress. But when the poor country’s income lies between 25% and 75% of the rich country’s, the two countries stand in a “zone of conflict,” in which the progress of the poor country reduces the rich country’s income. Then, once the formerly poor country’s relative income exceeds 75%, the two nations re-enter a “zone of mutual gain,” in which the progress of one benefits the other.
>> And where does that leave China today? According to the World Bank, in 2016 China’s purchasing-power-adjusted per capita income stood at exactly 26.7 percent of the US level.
>> 
>> It’s almost spooky.
>> 
>> That, perhaps, is why, in Foroohar’s words, “there is a growing group of thoughtful people who believe that American national security interests will require a forcible untangling of the investment and supply chain links between the US and China.”
>> 
>> Which means we’ve definitely entered the zone of conflict."
>> 
>> https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/07/trump-trade-war-china <https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/07/trump-trade-war-china>
>> 
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