[Peace] mother jones article

Robert Dunn prorobert8 at hotmail.com
Fri Oct 12 11:04:15 CDT 2001



            The Real Price of Oil Congressional
            Republicans are using terrorism fears to advance
            the administration's energy policy -- including oil
            drilling in Alaska -- while ignoring the plan's
            enormous long-term cost.
            by Mark Hertsgaard October 5, 2001

                                       Perhaps it's a sign of
                                       politics inching back
                                       toward business as
                                       usual: Congressional
                                       Republicans are
                                       exploiting the Sept. 11
                                       terror attacks to push
                                       the Bush
                                       administration's plan for
                                       an all-out increase in
                                       energy production.
                                       Lawmakers have
                                       proposed making the
            administration's controversial plan -- which includes drilling 
in
            the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge -- part of a federal
            anti-terrorism bill being debated in the Senate this week. And
            even if that amendment fails, as Senate Democrats predict,
            drilling advocates are likely to continue invoking terrorism
            fears as they argue for more oil development.

            Bush, of course, has long maintained that his energy plan will
            increase America's "energy security" -- meaning the nation's
            access to relatively inexpensive electricity and fuel. To that
            end, he has proposed a package of measures intended to
            encourage greater production of oil, along with other fossil
            fuels and nuclear power. In a victory that surprised even
            Republicans, the House of Representatives in August
            endorsed much of Bush's approach, including $33 billion
            worth of tax incentives for oil companies.

            It's questionable,
            however, whether these
            steps will in fact
            guarantee stable energy
            prices. Given the power
            that OPEC and the
            international oil
            companies have to
            manipulate production,
            the usual rules of supply
            and demand don't apply
            to the oil business. And
            even if Bush's approach
            works, it will affect the
            price of oil only in a
            narrow sense: what a
            barrel of light crude fetches on the London spot market, what
            a gallon of gasoline for the family automobile costs at the
            pump.

            What matters more is what should be called the real price of
            oil. This is comprised of two elements: petroleum's market
            price, plus the many indirect costs that its production and
            consumption impose on nature, public health, and future
            generations.

            Under Bush's plan, for example, the real price of oil will soon
            include not only those $33 billion in subsidies, but the
            potential destruction of Alaskan caribou calving grounds.
            Increased production also means a growing possibility of
            more oil spills like the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster, as well
            as continuation of the less-publicized release of an average of
            10 million gallons of petroleum into the oceans every year
            from tanker accidents.

            Further raising oil's real price will increased air pollution 
made
            possible by Bush's relaxation of environmental regulations.
            Already, diseases stemming from car exhaust kill some
            30,000 Americans each year, according to a 1995 Harvard
            University study. And back in 1993, the Worldwatch Institute
            estimated the damage to human and environmental health
            from vehicle emissions at $93 billion a year.

            For the world at large, the most serious consequence of
            continued reliance on oil and other fossil fuels will be
            accelerating climate change in the 21st century. Though a
            number of factors contribute to the greenhouse effect, oil
            remains a major culprit. Some 40 percent of America's
            greenhouse gas emissions stem from automobiles.

            Scientists have noted that already -- after a mere one-degree
            increase in temperatures over the past century -- glaciers are
            melting and catastrophic storms becoming more severe and
            frequent. They expect the planet to warm an additional 4 to 11
            degrees Fahrenheit in the 21st century, bringing yet more
            violent weather, flooded coastlines, killer droughts and social
            havoc. One insurance industry study projects that climate
            change will impose $304 billion of additional direct costs on
            the global economy every year.

            Bush has rightly been criticized for rejecting the Kyoto accord
            on global warming. But the truth is, America has never been
            shy about expecting the rest of the world to support its oil
            habit. Presidents and Congresses of both US political parties
            have for decades affirmed military and diplomatic policies
            aimed at guaranteeing American access to overseas oil; the
            CIA-assisted overthrow in 1953 of Iran's prime minister
            Mohammed Mossadegh -- who had advocated nationalizing
            the country's oil supplies -- is but one example.

            According to the Rocky Mountain Institute, an eco-think tank
            that analyzed Pentagon and Department of Energy spending
            data for the mid-1990s, federally funded research and
            development provided at least $300 million annually in
            subsidies for the fossil-fuel industry. And at least $50 billion 
of
            the US annual military budget during those years paid for
            forces whose primary purpose is to safeguard Middle Eastern
            oil fields and shipping lanes -- and whose presence,
            especially in the Islamic holy land of Saudi Arabia, provokes
            bitter resentment in much of the Muslim world.

            Economists use the term "externalities" to refer to costs that
            are not included in a commodity's market price, but are borne
            by society as a whole. Society, of course, also has benefited
            from the past century's increase in oil consumption: The US
            economy underwent an extraordinary expansion during the
            20th century, when cheap oil fostered first the
            automobilization of the nation and, after World War II, its
            suburbanization. Oil also made possible a transportation
            system built around individual mobility and personal
            convenience that in many respects remains the envy of the
            world.

            But the impending threat of climate change suggests that our
            reliance on oil has reached a point of diminishing returns. It's
            time for a new strategy -- a shift to energy efficiency in the
            short term and to solar and other renewable energy forms in
            the long term. Such a Global Green Deal would not only
            reduce ecological damage, but yield substantially more jobs,
            profits and economic prosperity than today's system does.
            Investments in energy efficiency create two to ten times more
            jobs per dollar than investments in oil and nuclear power -- a
            crucial concern as the economy slides into recession.

            Bush is betting that the nation is willing to pay whatever it
            takes to keep oil flowing, and he may be right. In the House of
            Representatives, the president's plan was supported by
            Democrats and Republicans, labor and corporate interests. In
            the Senate, much will depend on what kind of pressure is
            brought to bear on its members.

            Americans may ultimately agree with Bush that maintaining
            their oil habit is worth any price. But we should at least
            acknowledge the full cost of such a decision -- not only for
            Americans, but for the six billion people we share the planet
            with.  What do you think?

            Mark Hertsgaard, author of Earth Odyssey: Around the World
            In Search of Our Environmental Future, is at work on a book
            about America and why it fascinates, infuriates, and bewilders
            the rest of the world.




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